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  • AQ

    The guy had a VP of 18% and a AF of 1.2 out of 40 hands. Should be pretty tight, my read was that he had JJ

  • #2
    Reason I shoved was that I could have alot of fold equity even from JJ
    And if he would call I have 12 outs to the nuts


    • #3
      Hi Sjekkk!

      If the guy is 18% from all positions combined, then he probably should be wider on the BTN.
      You are a small equity favorite over even a 10% raise range here, so I like the raise.

      Your sizing is good too, as it sets up a beneficial SPR for you to commit on any top/top type hand, the sort of hand you are likely to see if you do spike. That is provided board texture warrants it...

      When you do flop top/top, with the nut flush draw on the 3 diamond board, the flop bet is where it gets WAY tricky...

      Here is what I arrived at:

      - Your flop bet of $3.27, when it gets called, negated any shot at a bet/fold line on the turn. You could only bet $3 into an $11.14 pot, and NOT lay yourself odds to draw at the nut flush for the villain's stack. Betting that small is too likely to trigger a semi bluff shove if this passive opp has ANY ability to do that at all.

      - Your flop bet of $3.27 also builds the pot too big to really love taking a check/call line either. This $11.14 pot makes a jam for value too likely by the villain, and while that will probably be a BETTER hand than yours more often than not, a check may encourage this villain to BELIEVE a hand like KdQx is now good.

      - A check/fold to a jam, or a check/call of any bet up to about $5, would give you odds to draw at the nut flush (if you can assume that you may get the rest in the villain's stack, as you should quite often).

      So about the only thing I can fall back on again is saying that your flop bet on this 3 diamond board may have been a bit TOO BIG and/or too aggressive.

      I really hate saying that to be honest, because you did hit the sort of hand you wanted to hit when you raised pre, but sticking yourself 100% to beneficial SPRs without an eye to board texture can be costly too. If you were behind here, you really have little hope of getting a better hand to fold with aggression, and bloating the pot before you spike sets up tricky spots.

      So I think after looking at multiple possibilities, a better bet on the flop might have been around $2.00 to $2.50, as that leaves your more room to maneuver later on in the hand. I just do not see enough hands in this guy's calling range that are worse which are calling that large $3.27 flop bet to really love it, and you really are not living in fear of any DRAW he might have that might prevent you from betting smaller.

      So I think I'd say betting smaller on the flop would have been better, but then hind sight is often 20/20.

      Hope it helps.

      Last edited by JDean; Sat Jan 21, 2012, 05:45 PM.
      Double Bracelet Winner



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