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My fail NL2 hands

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  • My fail NL2 hands

    this 1 I wanted to fold after river card(because though he had straight)but kept it up just for hand replay and question is,do I actually have to fold on hands like this,I was thinking about is he bluffing or not,should I fold anyway next time?

  • #2
    Do I have to fold this big pre-flop when I have something like this?(10Jsuited +)

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    • #3
      What about this one?

      Comment


      • #4
        Here's an NL5 What could I do about this one?

        Comment


        • #5
          This happened to me about 10 minutes later again,had AA and QQ guy goes all in so I called and turn card came Q

          Comment


          • #6
            Hi Urosh92!

            Welcome to the Hand analysis forum!

            Just for future reference, it is usually easier to answer your hands if you post them 1 to a thread. That way any discussion about the hands doesn't wind up in confusing "cross talk" where one person comment son a hand, and others think he is commenting on a different one. So posting 1 hand per thread jsut makes for a "cleaner" discussion by the whole forum...

            As for your hands, I'd like to give my opinions if i may...

            Hand #1:
            (My personal thoughts on what I would do in your situation are in italics for each street)

            When you lack a lot of info about an opponent that could help guide your decisions, you really can only base your decisions on a rough estimate of what hands you beat and what hands you are ahead of, and the size of the pot and your investment in that as to whether you are good to keep betting or not.

            For this hand, I am going to put up a lot of info, but most of it will be configured around Stack to Pot ratioes, the size of the pot in relation to the remaining chips in your stack, and the number of total hands we might be ahead of and those which might beat us.

            Whenever you have a low SPR, you should be much less willing to "give up" on a pot by folding hands like over pairs or top pair/top kicker hands. There is usually just too many times an opponent will be betting on a top pair lesser kicker hand (or a lesser over pair) to fold those hands once the pot has grown quite large. As we will see in this hand, things like paired boards and possible straights or flushes may CHANGE our overall thoughts about the quality of a 1 pair hand, but without pretty specific read info, the best we can do is consider hands which might bet or call as our opponents do that we are ahead of, and those that might beat us.

            In medium/short stack depth situations like this one (58BB effective), our commitment decisions will tend to creep up on us FAST. That means by the time we have any warning that we might be beaten, it may be too late to back out. Sometimes the BEST we can do when it becomes apparent we may be beat is to try saving what we can.

            What follows are my thoughts on your hand play here...



            PRE FLOP:
            Your action is fine in my opinion.

            Your hand, KK, is strong enough that you have to feel you are way ahead here.
            I like the 8c raise because it is a pretty standard size.

            This means it is not so large as to make anyone suspicious and fold a medium strength hand, and it is not so small as to keep you from setting up better value spots later on in the hand. If you had more specific info on an opponent that says he would call more, then a larger bet would be better; KK is such a good hand that you really would love to get all the money in pre flop if you could holding the 2nd nut. But lacking that info you are more likely to fold out everyone if you get too greedy.

            Also...

            You set up a stack to pot ratio of 5.5 going into the flop with this raise given just a single caller, and that is right in line with the SPR of between 4 to 6 that makes playing hands like KK easy on most all flops.

            FLOP:
            Bet bigger, around 10c to 15c.

            This amount does not grow the pot overly huge in case you are beat (thus preventing you from saving ANY chips on a call/call turn and river line if you are check/raised), but it also sets up better value for you later in the hand than the bet size you chose if you are ahead.

            In my opinion, when you think you probably have the best hand (like you should be thinking here), your goal with your bets should usually be to bet to DENY ODDS, but INVITE a call. Why? Simple...

            If you are best, you want to invite someone with less to call, right? That gets you more value.

            If you, however, bet so small you lay proper odds to an opponent to call that bet, that turns his call from a long term "mistake" into a long term +eV play for him.

            Your bet size is only marginally denying odds to a 2 out draw if you will not stack off (2 outs = 4.3% chance to spike the turn, this needs about 23.3 to 1 implied odds to call, you lay 26 to 1 if you will stack off). If you will stack off no matter what (as you should here more often than not with your minimal info and this SPR), you are laying a correct implied odds price to some one who might peel to spike a boat. This costs you value if you allow an opponent to make a "correct" call based on odds through your bet choice.

            Off hand, I can only see 2 reasons to bet 4c in this spot, and NEITHER are really good reasons here:

            A) Your opponent can only call 4c maximum.
            If he has a hand that is so weak he can only call a bet that is 20% pot (that lays him 6 to 1 pot odds) WITHOUT that being a good price, then your 4c is fine; it is very inviting to a call and still denies odds.

            But on this board a ton of hands behind you (like 77 thru QQ) are going to call far more than 4c, so why not bet more?

            B) You feel a bet this size will induce a raise you can then shove over for value.
            If you are facing a very aggressive opponent who will not likely have 44/66 or AA in his range often here, and this opponent has shown he will tend to "attack" smaller bets, your bet of 4c might be a decent shot at representing weakness on this flop to induce a shove.

            But you lack information on this opponent which might tell you if he will bluff shove this flop, or really how likely he is to have a hand that beats you, so you do not have enough to go on to risk the loss of value by a smaller bet to try that play well.

            So bet bigger...

            Your SPR going into the turn as fallen to around 3.9.


            TURN:
            Bet bigger, around 15c to 20c.


            The 7h here is not a truly scary card for you.
            Only 53 and 77 have improved to beat you, so if you were ahead on the flop you are probably still ahead most of the time.

            Your 10c bet serves to deny odds adequately for the extra draws which might be on the board now, and it is still very inviting, so it is really not as weak a bet by you here as was your flop bet. Still, in my opinion I'd prefer to bet more on than 10c on the turn simply because the first call tends to make me think that the villain is willing to call more than 10c with less than my KK.

            A 10c bet is going to create a very low SPR of around 2 if the villain calls anyway, so not putting some extra value in here by betting a bit more is really not saving you any chips if you are beat; you are probably still stacking off as readily with a 10c bet as a 15c or 20c bet so why not get paid more if you are ahead?

            Call a min re-raise.

            Per The Baluga Theorem (see link here: http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/baluga/), this min re-raise is a BIG warning sign for any 1 pair hand on a paired board with a possible straight.

            It is, however, the first indicator we have had to show us we may not be ahead with our KK.

            Even though you may well now be behind, you are so deeply invested here, and the pot has grown so large, you really cannot afford to allow yourself to to fold and become bluffable; this could be a bet made by JJ which thinks it is ahead and is scared of a flush draw now as well as a 4. So when we do our re-assessment, we really cannot FOLD.

            - You could elect to shove over this min raise, as a lot of the same hands that might have been calling you might be raising now thinking they are the best (especially given your pretty small bets).

            - You could elect to view the paired board as a threat you may have been missing all along and seek to save what you can by just calling.

            The LAST thing you should do is consider folding though, in my opinion.

            Your SPR going to the river is under 1.

            RIVER:
            Check/Call, do not bet.


            I must admit, my suggestion here is largely a personal choice.
            I would suggest this option mainly because you did not shove to stand on the turn.
            By not betting larger, or shoving over the min raise, you have a chance now to avoid losing the maximum if you elect to check/call instead of lead out, because you will then be leaving it up to the opponent to charge you the maximum price; there is a small chance you are beat and that could result in you saving some money.

            Alternately, it would be completely fine to bet all in, because that would get you maximum value if you are ahead, and you are not folding anyway. It is also pretty un-likely in a pot this size someone ahead of you will not put you in anyway.It is just my personal preference in the face of the warning sign we got on the turn to try saving some chips though, at the cost of possibly giving up some top end value.

            I must stress, even if the villain moves us all in here we should NOT FOLD.

            (Sorry to have taken so long to get this posted Urosh92.)

            Hope it helps.

            -JDean
            Last edited by JDean; Sat Jan 14, 2012, 04:52 PM.
            Double Bracelet Winner

            Comment


            • #7
              [remove]
              Last edited by Urosh92; Mon Nov 05, 2012, 08:04 AM.

              Comment


              • #8
                [remove]
                Last edited by Urosh92; Mon Nov 05, 2012, 08:04 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  [remove]
                  Last edited by Urosh92; Mon Nov 05, 2012, 08:04 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Oh J Dean,sorry,red your comment just now

                    I thought it would be stupid to spam whole thread and I have 2 more replays but playing in same time on 2 tables so probably will get more in meantime

                    That's why I asked on other thread is there anyone streaming his TAG games or anyone who wants to watch me and tell me where is my problem,but answer I got is to go and post my hands here:/


                    Will start making new threads with about 2-3 replays per thread so will be easier for you to answer.

                    P.S. Thanks for welcome

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Well I played a lot on the 1/2c level but if I must point something out are these.. In 1/2c blinds I always raise at least 8c if no one raised already and for any limper I raise an extra 2c. This will at least isolate and filter some of those calling stations. Cbets... if the pot is for ex. 24c and you are going to cbet don't bet 6 or 8c.. but bet more or at this level people will stay with you in hope they get their 'miracle' card!!! bet half or even more if you think you might have an adge or you will not win big when you have the goods, don't worry about if they have nothing they will fold if they want to see another card they need to pay. 3bets... When you 3bet do it at least 3x as much so if the someone raises for 8c don't put 16c but put 24c or you might invite others too. Many of the original raisers will still call mate. Unless you are v v deep and you raise with K10 suited and you are raised and reraised, fold it mate as it would be too espensive unless you are deep, have position or have reads that someone 3bets or even 4bets light. If you are on a table that a lot of players call any initial raise you have to or fold more or else raise more sometimes even 12c or 15c instead of the 'normal' 8c. Don't slow play unless you have a monster, a v good read, or playing last and in position. Don't call on a flush draw even if you are on the nut flush unless you think someone else might be on a flush draw too or on a bluff which you will not often find in these levels. My 2c umbup: Etienne

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Urosh92 View Post
                        Do I have to fold this big pre-flop when I have something like this?(10Jsuited +)
                        Hello again Urosh92! Yes, I think this is a clear fold pre flop. While raising KTs in the position you are in here can be probably be profitable vs. weak opponents, when your raise gets 3bet then 4bet (raised and re-raised), your hand really shrinks up in its playable value. Your raise only invests a tiny fraction of your stack in the pot, but by looking at the action behind you, you can see the stack to pot ratio going to the turn will be under 1 against the effective stack, and you really do not have enough in your stack to off-set your loss in the main pot by winning a side pot vs. the larger stack. This means a LARGE pot, and an early commitment for you if you want to re-coup your investment. KTs will not tend to flop strongly enough to shove for value often enough to make a call to continue here profitable; it will not likely be the best hand often enough to shove for value pre flop, and the size of the pot plus the size of the effective stack here means you are un-likely to get many worse hands to fold to a bluff or semi bluff by you on the flop. This all adds up to the simple fact that you should fold NOW, while it is still only 6c, and keep your chips to fight another day. Hope it helps. -JDean
                        Last edited by JDean; Sat Jan 14, 2012, 05:18 PM.
                        Double Bracelet Winner

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Urosh92 View Post
                          What about this one?
                          Hi once again Urosh92! I actually think you played this hand VERY well. You are in a shallow stack situation, with the effective stack at under 40BB. Your hand, A6s, is not a bad hand to raise up on the button to steal the blinds, or to pick up what might be a single loose caller who might fold a missed flop to a continuation bet. You open raise for 6c pre flop. This is a nicely standard size, and while a raise to 3BB that gets called will bring about a much lower SPR, and an earlier commitment point for you than a lesser raise, you really cannot risk showing weakness with a min bet here and have great hopes to steal the blinds. As long as your recognize that any pair you might flop may NOT be a winning hand, and seek to control your further investment in the pot after a C-Bet, you can still get away with this standard sizing for an open raise usually. The flop comes A hi, and the SB villain donk leads at you with a 2c bet (donk lead does not refer to his play as bad, it is a term which means calling a raise oop, Then leading into the pot). You raise small, making it 6c to go, on your top pair/weak kicker hand, the villain flats this. Normally in this pot, I would prefer to lead a larger portion of the pot over a tiny bet like this. If I do that, I can generally deny odds to any draws, and still remain inviting by making a bet of around 12c to go here. The problems in this spot for you making that size bet are: 1) There ARE no likely draws here. On this A 7 2 rainbow board, you really do not NEED to bet as much as 10c or 12c to go in order to price out draws. If someone is on a draw it is on a gut shot draw, they have 4 outs vs you, and an 8.5% chance to spike the turn before you can bet again. This means they need around 10.75 to 1 pot odds to make a call break even on eV, and your 4c raise to build a 22c pot lays far less than that. 2) Raising more will lower your SPR too far, and may serve to commit you to this pot with what may not be the best hand. In the long write up, I went into detail about an SPR of 4 to 6 being a good target to create if you hold a hand likely to flop a top pair top kicker hand, or an over pair. You have top pair, but you cannot really be sure you are not out kicked here. This means you really do NOT want to create a really really low SPR, and "force" yourself into a spot where you are going to be seeing larger bet sizes that you may feel obligated to call, on your start stack. It has been my experience that donk bets such as the opponent made here, especially the really SMALL ones, are generally sort an opponent's holding into 2 categories. They tend to be made by either pretty weak hands (like 2nd or 3rd pair) that the opponent might feel is best but is too scared to bet harder and is also reluctant to give up on, or very STRONG hands (like flopped 2 pairs or big over pairs) that he wants to get value from by using deceptive bet sizing. Since you cannot really know by his donk lead which one it is, you can pretty much figure a DECENT amount of time your A6 will be good here, so a raise for value is fine. But if your raise is too large, and too committing for your shallow start stack here, you may not find out you are beaten until it is too late. This is why I like your 6c raise sizing better than making it 10c or 12c to go for this depth of money. When the opponent calls your 6c raise, then leads again for a tiny bet on the turn, I love the fact you did not raise him and become overly aggressive on your stack. The very fact he called your raise could easily mean he is on the strong side so there is no real point in instantly assuming he is very weak just because he is still betting small. Your SPR is already falling quite quickly, but without any draws the opp could likely be semi bluffing (except one he called a raise to pick up on the turn or a weak gutter ball draw), and with not a ton of worse betting hands you beat, trying to rush value in like you have the nuts is going to be quite risky for you. In short, your hand has "showdown value" if the bets are quite small, but does not really have enough value to raise again and stick yourself, or call really LARGE bets. On the river you are facing what is called a "polarizing bet"... Right from the start, I explained that "donk bets" are usually either very weak bets when facing your top pair hand, or very strong hands the villain knows are going to be the best way more often than not. The fact a 3rd straight card appeared on the river might be juuuuuuust enough of a reason for someone who has no real value to try one last desperate bluff stab with a big bet in hopes you will fold thinking that you might credit him with making that straight. What I usually do is look at this situation and think to myself "how often is this guy likely to be bluffing?" That then allows me to set an amount I am willing to CALL on the river, and if the villain bets over that, I can fold with a small investment, and if he bets under that I can call profitably. In this spot, the pot going to the river is 31c. If you think the villain might bluff here only about 1/3rd of the time, the maximum price you can pay on this river to show down your ace would be a pot size bet to break even on a call. The villain actually bet less than pot, 21c, which laid you a price of 21c to win 52c, or laid you 2.4 to 1 to call. This means he actually needs to be bluffing only about 29% of the time for you to break even on a call. Even though Rockerguy (who posts as I am completing this) is right in saying this is not often a bet made lightly by a weak player, it is quite possible that it WILL be a bluff roughly 3 times in 10. That is why I like your river call here. Overall, very well played hand! Hope it helps. -JDean
                          Last edited by JDean; Sat Jan 14, 2012, 06:21 PM.
                          Double Bracelet Winner

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                          • #14
                            Regarding the A6s hand JDean just discussed -

                            The villain's betting pattern is a very common one for unskilled players at 2NL. It is basically the postflop min, min, max bet. Min flop bet, min turn bet, overbet river is the general pattern. Villain shows weakness until river then suddenly shows great strength. Bad players pull that move all the time and it is usually indicative of a big hand they want value for. They play weak until the river because they want so badly to keep you in the hand and get action from you.

                            Just keep an eye out for this betting pattern it will come up many more times. Easy fold with top pair 6 kicker.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Urosh92 View Post
                              Here's an NL5 What could I do about this one?
                              Hello Urosh92. In this hand, another shallow money spot, the large raise by the blind really has to be a flashing signal to you that if you continue at all you WILL be playing for your stack here. The time to decide whether or not you will flop the best hand is before the flop, not after a call, as you will have an SPR of right around 1 if you call this bet. With any un-paired hand, 2/3rds of the time you will miss the flop completely, so if you can fully expect a flop bet by an opponent which puts you all in (or close enough not to matter), you have to decide PRE FLOP whether you will be willing to play for stacks vs. that all in bet with just over cards...because it is going to happen, and you will have no pair a lot of the time. So I would really have looked at your pre flop decision as one where I have to shove or fold, simply to avoid a spot where I might CALL miss the flop, and be too reluctant to put the rest of my chips in. By doing this, you may avoid making a HUGE mistake in folding off a big chunk of your stack to a miss, but you ALSO may end up extracting value from a worse hand trying to pressure you off your raise. In all honestly, this is a spot that AQ is not really going to play well expect versus a loose 3bet range by the opponent... Simply because this guy raised such a large amount, he is telling you he has no intention of folding. Your standard open raise was cheap enough you can fold it rather than trying to race this guy (if he has a pp 22 - JJ), or risk finding out too late the guy has AK or pp QQ+. Calling in hopes of spiking an A on the flop, AND finding that your paired A is good enough to beat your opponent, is simply not going to happen enough to really be worth the risk. So next time in my opinion, think of it as all in or fold, and lean toward fold unless there are a lot of un-paired hands worse than AQs this guy might 3bet on. Hope it helps. -JDean
                              Last edited by JDean; Sat Jan 14, 2012, 06:44 PM.
                              Double Bracelet Winner

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