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Big Slick Gets Slippery

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  • Big Slick Gets Slippery

    Notes on the Villain - This was the first time I saw him raise Preflop. Entered the Pot 19% C-Bet 86% and Aggression Factor of 21% My Thinking - I was thinking of a re-raise preflop but decided to call being out of position. I'm wondering if I bet out on the flop and tried to pot control would the opponent call me or shove anyway? I've a beautiful draw here to the 'Nut Flush'. What's the best course of action? Raiser umbup:
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hello Royal Raise!

    I really hope you called here, and spiked the flush...


    First off, normally I must say I like your line of thinking regarding not re-raising with AK oop. In deep money situations it can get quite tricky to play even a top/top hand oop. This is not likely to be a deep money situation though, especially if you 3bet. An immediate 3bet by you with your premium hand is very likely to set off a 4bet shove here that really might not be too bad for you in a HU pot at all. Consider...

    1) If you do set off a 4bet jam, you are ahead of any un-paired holding, and you are racing all except KK/AA.

    2) If you set off a 4bet jam, you are guarenteed to see all 5 cards, rather than face a "stop and go" possibility that could cost you your call amount when you miss; you could end up folding the best hand there.

    3) Flatting could lead to the chance that an aggro BB will try to "squeeze" you out of the pot to leave your dead money there as over-lay versus the short stack BTN.

    So all in all, I think I would favor an immediate 3bet on the order of making it at least 40c to go, but this is just my personal choice really.


    As played, I think I would really favor a lead bet rather than a check on a flop that gives me the nut flush draw and 2 overs. With a stack to pot ratio of just under 4 going to the flop, you should be quite ready to stand on ANY top/top hit in normal circumstances; a nut flush draw with 2 board overs is a big math favorite over ANY single pair on this flop (that does not have an A or K kicker) as well as any over pair up to QQ.

    If you are worried that he has AA or KK, you have a race vs KK with just 1 over and your flush draw, and you have right around 37%/38% equity vs AA. Since adopting a call line will only see your equity advantage diminish if you miss the turn, the time to get your chips into the pot would be as soon as possible in my opinion.

    As for his jam over your check, while you do not say how many hands your data are based upon, I would not be shocked at all to see that by a guy with an 86% C-Bet rate. If this is the first time you've seen him raise but he is entering 19% of the pots and C-Betting 86% of the time, I am thinking this guy is firing on air, or near air, a good part of the time.

    So all this takes me right back to where I started: I really hope you called and spiked!

    Hope it helps.

    Last edited by JDean; Thu Jan 12, 2012, 07:41 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Thanks for the evaluation Jdean, I had a feeling that someone would say that calling the shove was the correct play. Unfortunately I didn't and mucked this one. Months of learning 'Nit' tight ABC poker has seemingly programmed me to fold any hands that are not already well 'made' hands. The reason I posted this one is that in my gut I had a strong feeling that I was probably well ahead in this spot. I knew I played the hand very badly was annoyed that I didn't at least bet out on the flop. Raiser umbup:

      Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        For me it is a call 100% with 2overs and the nut flush draw. Actually I would 3bet him so he shoves preflop and bet the flop as most probable he did not hit and even if he did hit you have tons of outs, after all he might even have a hand like KQ, AQ, or AJ and you would win even without needing to hit... The shoving on the flop is most probable with air or almost with his v high cbet ratio. You are only really behind AA here so call or bet the flop and if he shoves of course you call. I think you got a bit scared and/or confused here and thus folded so next time if it happens try to think on his tendencies, his stack and past hands he played if any, and of course your outs...



        • #5
          Something is wrong here. If he's never raised preflop then how can he have a c-bet %? C-bet is a continuation of the lead from a prior street, this guy has never taken the lead preflop. Or do you have stats from before (in which case his PFR is not 0%).

          Personally I prefer to 3b to isolate unless the BB is a huge fish, and we want to invite him in. Don't worry about spr with the villain, he's playing a short stack so it will be a low spr scenario with him even if you flat.

          As played, I would check-raise him all in, and when he shoves I would always call this, we're a pretty solid equity favorite over his range.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by JDean View Post
            a nut flush draw with 2 board overs is a big math favorite over ANY single pair on this flop (that does not have an A or K kicker) as well as any over pair up to QQ.
            54-46 roughly if the guy doesn't hold the Qc. 52-48 if he does. .
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