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Blind Battle

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  • Blind Battle

    hi everyone This hand was my opponent's 4th hand at the table and my 4th ever vs him. during the previous 3hands my oppnt had played 2/3 losing both. the other hand, the hand before this one, he got a walk in the big blind. during the previous 3hands I had played 1hand, against this opponent, his first hand at the table, where I 3bet him pre w/ AK and took it down on a King high flop with a 3/4 pot cbet. On this flop after the action pre I decided my opponent mostly had a big ace and wasn't folding so I decided to shove ai to exploit him. What would you do in this spot?
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

  • #2

    Per your read, what you did is totally fine in my opinion. The key thing to ask though would be "how solid is that read?"

    Obviously if you are rock solid, 100% sure that he will not fold a big A, and as sure that is what he has, then your shove for max value is the best thing you can do: it gets you all the value in possible with the opp drawing at just 6 outs.

    The thing is, reads are rarely 100%...

    You are really making a highly exploitative play designed to extract maximum value in a very SPECIFIC situation, on quite minimal information (4 hands). The better your info is, the better it is to try such an exploitative play, but the less info you have the more you should lean toward a more optimal play. Consider...

    I am not saying a raise over the 36c is not in order; giving creedence in your action decisions to even nascent reads to set up BETTER value extraction is just fine in my opinion. So a raise here, when you still have a good solid chance (in your read's opinion) of extracting MORE value is fine.

    I just think in this spot, on only 4 hands of info, I'd prefer to raise making it around $1 to $1.25 to go, rather than go all in.

    Making the action I suggest could tend to save you money on the turn if an A pops (since this guy is not folding in your opinion), whereas your all in will not. It also does not prevent you from easily getting the REST of your stack in on the turn if he calls and an A does not show. You have to remember, cash games do not have the same concerns over stack preservation as MTT play, so folding if your read SAYS to fold when an A comes is completely fine to do even if you have put more than 1/3rd of your chips in.

    Since your read says he will call with just 2 overs, lowering the SPR going into the turn tends to increase your chance that a calling station who will continue to put money in on the flop with just 2 overs will feel "stuck" to draw at the river too. This may well accomplish the same thing as an immediate all in on the flop, but without the added risk to you of an A coming only AFTER all your chips are in.

    The play thought I suggest is still HIGHLY exploitative, as it does see you in a spot where you will be pretty deeply invested and have to fold a reasonable amount of the time if you stay true to your read (those times being when an A shows). But it is not as exploitative as the play you made in the hand, which leaves you ZERO room to get away from a bad situation on the turn (if it materializes).

    I will certainly grant that in this spot making a smaller raise could COST you value if/when the opp gives up on his overs with just 1 card to come, but in my opinion the loss of some top end value of a maximum exploitative play is off-set by the fact that you can possibly SAVE yourself some money in some situations.

    Afterall, 4 hands really is not quite enough to be positive he is not on JJ+ here, right?

    And it is almost as certain that a guy willing to stack off on just over cards would NOT fold KK/QQ or even JJ that deeply invested just because an A shows, right?

    And in THAT case, an A on the turn would really HELP you, but only if you have not moved all in on the flop.

    Hope it helps.

    Last edited by JDean; Fri Jan 06, 2012, 02:30 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Hi rule,

      This is really thin value imo. Against a weak opponent this line is fine since they will stack off enough worse hands to make it profitable, but against a decent player it would be a pretty big spew because you end up value owning yourself... they will fold worse hands and only get it in with hands that are crushing you.

      What makes it thin imo is that we have no real read on what category this opponent falls into with only 4 hands of history and no showdowns. In 2nl a general random guy you will get away with this more often than not because they will often end up being weak or inexperienced players, but as you move up from the micros taking this line vs. unknowns will be -EV in the long run.

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      • #4
        As lango said I will put in mire direct words. Is your read based on local weather or the hottie on street corner dress color?
        And this is very thin value line against 2 overcards. Even if you put him on 2 overs (and that he is always calling with them) then he still got 25-35% chance to whambuuzle you out of the pot which makes it even worse spot to ship it. This is ev- line on every limit, it may have been EV+ 2 years ago but the game moves on every year and NL2 is getting tougher


        • #5
          with regards to playing TT lango's combinatorics class was very helpful to me.
          17 Time Bracelet Winner


          • #6
            double post via edit
            Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 08, 2012, 12:22 AM.
            Double Bracelet Winner


            • #7
              To me, this one can largely be about value owning yourself if you are WRONG, like Dave says, but you also must strike a BALANCE between using the read info you have at the table (as minimal as it might be) to maximum effect, and electing a line which could be "safer". Just because you might value own yourself by moving all in, does NOT mean you "must" instantly adopt a more passive or "careful" line...

              To me personally, on this minimal amount of info, I would not really like to tangle in a 4bet pot (you called a 4bet pre) at all with TT versus someone who will CALL on just overs. Too often there will be at least 1 over to my T on the board. And if there isn't one on the flop but the Villain will NOT fold over cards, I am essentially setting myself up to race for stacks when I might be dominated.

              Lacking info to tell me for sure this guy WILL 4bet on a range that has enough start hands that are favorable to my TT, I would prefer to just let this one go pre flop (when he 4bets), and find a BETTER spot against someone I am starting to read as a weak opponent; he is VERY likely to give me those better spots if I am right about his weakness.

              This is solely MY opinion, expressing my personal risk/reward assessment of the info I have here, and what I think I can probably find later on at this table.

              As played though, what matters is the OP's risk/reward assessment, and his assessment said a race was a good possibility, and therefore he wanted to get his chips in as a slight favorite in a race. All I can really question in that is whether or not 4 hands was enough to form the opinion this IS a race with an equal chance of dominating and being dominated (I do not think it is), and whether there may not have been a BETTER way to accomplish the overall goal of getting chips in without maximum risk of loss (there was, a raise as I suggest, or somewhere in that ball park).

              I mean assume this situation:

              If the villain leads the flop as he did (a bit under half pot), and the OP raises as I suggested might be an option making it $1.25 to go, and the villain JAMS...what would everyone here suggest the OP does then?

              To me, he has to fall back on the faith he has in his minimal read and CALL.

              A) the pot would have been simply too large to give up on then.
              B) your read says that this villain might be aggro with just overs, and as minimal as that read is, you should have faith in it if you started your actions largely based upon it.
              C) you WANTED to get chips into the pot anyway...

              So I do agree that a jam on this flop will NOT leave any room for the villain to possibly bluff shove. It DOES leave room for him to mistake call on 6 outs, and if he does you get max value, but you really have only enough info to say he will play overs aggressively and not whether he will passively call on them too.

              By shoving immediately, you only leave room to get value for yourself if the guy WILL make a mistake by calling on overs, plus you cost yourself the maximum if you are wrong about him having just overs in the first place.
              Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 08, 2012, 01:18 AM.
              Double Bracelet Winner


              • #8
                hey JDean
                hey TheLangolier

                I felt as the hand went down his flop bet was too small if he had an overpair because an overpair would fear the flush and not size it so small, especially if his 5x raise in the sb preflop meant he had a big pair (which would be weird because why would he bet so big into just one opponent with a large holding like QQ, KK, or AA?)

                I felt I really only had to fear JJ or a set here, real possibilities, but it's hard to flop sets, so I decided his likeliest holding was AK or AQ. seemed consistent with the action and with our limited history,,,the hand I held AK and 3bet him I did not get 4bet...I'm sure had he had JJ or QQ I'd have heard about it that hand

                I guess from my perspective this hand is an example of escalating aggression. He didn't like me 3betting him his first hand at the he 4bet me w/ AQ. I felt TT was too strong to fold pre this early vs an opponent I'd seen call a 3bet pre and fold to a single flop bet on a dry king high board.

                Though I guess rr'ing his small flop lead and not folding to any 4bet on the flop would be a very good option too, because a rr could entice him to make those costly mistakes with just over cards.
                Last edited by rule110; Sun Jan 08, 2012, 12:51 PM.



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