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do you like my bluff?

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  • do you like my bluff?

    This ha
    Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012, 08:33 PM.

  • #2
    Any time you are judging the quality of a bluff, you must know info about the opponent it is tried against. By nature, bluffs are highly exploitative plays, and to be "good" you have to have solid indications they will work.

    With that said, right on the face of it I have to say that 5 hands into play at a given table is probably not enough time to really have feel for whether a bluff is good or not. It MIGHT be, if you had watched the table before sitting, or if you have prior notes, but in isolation I'd say it isn't enough.

    With that said, there can be times to bluff when you have zero real hope of it working....

    Mike Caro is a big proponent of "image" plays such as trying hopeless bluffs early in a session, in hopes you can show it down. This sets the impression in your opponents that you are looser and wilder than you really are.

    On line, with the ability for opponents to move tables so readily, I am not sure I agree with his thoughts on image management by bluffing (Mr Caro was refering to live play though). To me, you would be BETTER SERVED in either not attempting an image play at all, or if you bluff early at a table, you make it a bluff that does not LOOK like one; in that case if you do get "caught" on showdown, your image benefits are at least side value (provided you use them effectively).


    In this spot, since it is so early in your time at the table, I think you should really NOT be trying wild bluffs like this that often.

    If you MUST do so (for your own ego, or whatever), you are better served in telling a CONSISTENT STORY with your betting. Consider...

    Your 3bet pre is fine; it says "strength".

    Your 1/3rd pot bet on the 2 diamond J hi flop sucks as a bluff; it screams "draw".

    Note: in order for an opp to put you on a STRONG hand when you bet 1./3rd pot, he must have info on YOU.
    In order for you to believe your opp will think a 1/3rd pot bet is strong, you must have info on HIM.

    Your turn bet on an over card Q turn is now large again: but if the opp thought draw on the flop, you bet now says "J at most, maybe"...

    If you must bluff, at least give yourself max chance to WIN via your bluff by being consistent with a standard value line.


    Seems to me Rule110, this is a little bit of your ego getting in the way of your poker profitability.

    Now do not get me wrong, if you WANT to play wild and crazy poker, that is fine. Part of this game is enjoyment, and if your enjoyment comes in getting other people to fold to bluffs, that is all good.

    But if you are playing poker for the profit potential, every action you take, EVERY ACTION, should be weighed in terms of what it adds to your bottom line.

    You don't add a whole lot to your bottom line by bluffing this early at a table, nor do you do so by playing so many hands early. You also do not mimic a "value line" well enough to really cause villains who may begin to SUSPECT you are bluffing a lot to pay you off when you have true value.

    So in the end, this bluff really accomplishes very little for you in the meta game, and it can be quite costly if you gt snapped off.

    Hope it helps.

    Last edited by JDean; Tue Dec 20, 2011, 06:46 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      only 5 hands in, if you have no prior history with the opps, you really haven't established a tight table image, which allows you to set up bluffs. You say that you won 2 of the 5 hands and was in the BB for another (so you were somewhat involved in 3 of 5 hands).... which is NOT a tight image. It's more on the loose/calling station side.

      If you don't establish a tight image first, then your bluffs will get called down with worse and worse cards from the opps (you want them to fold, not call).

      You also have to take into account that you're playing 2NL..... where most opps will call any bet with anything.

      2NL with a loose table image (although it's only 5 hands) is NOT where you want to be bluffing. At this type of table, you need to be playing ABC poker and not bluffing. You can't bluff donks and calling stations very often, which is what these tables are loaded with.

      You may or may not have gotten lucky here, but the smart play is to muck the hand preflop. If you keep making plays like this at 2NL, it's a losing cause in the long run.

      6 Time Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Eh, doesn't look like a great spot to try unless you are trying to set up an image as a hopeless bluffer. You're in okay position, but you're 3-betting an EP raise. If you were on the button it would make more sense to come in, or if you had a solid fish read on the guy that you could really outplay him, but 5 hands in is not enough (unless you've seen something really ridiculous already, which you haven't.)

        And you're not even suited!
        4 Time Bracelet Winner


        • #5
          I think the bluff part has been addressed very nicely HOWEVER this quote scared me even more then the play of the bluff!!! oriholic says and to make a point - And you're not even suited

          Holy chit..really?? so you would play that as a bluff suited and that would make it ok? The fact that given the hand would be suited woulds add only less then 3% equity to the hand and even then say you get your flush on the flop and your in a 3 way pot - what are the chances someone has a bigger flush? and on the turn comes the 4th suited card? your dead in the water because anything over a 6 has you beat and chances are you see the flush your betting it like you have the nuts. The only reasdon you would ever be in a pot with a 2 5 or 2 5 suited is for the straight (wheel) or straight flush and THATS ALL. If the board comes 3 4 6 someone with a 5 7 has you beat again. You need to analyze why your in the game with that hand in the first place - to catch those 2 flops mentioned before and possibly the boat 5 5 2 or quads. Anything else hits you fold. I would highly recommend downloading pokerstove and running an equity analysis on what hands a 2 5 suited can beat (its a 38% to 62% favor for any random cards for the villan).
          Everyone loves suited connectors - if you would like a good read as to reasons WHY NOT to play suited connectors too strongly buy Annie Duke's latest book - its a great read and has a ton of fantastic information. If you want to get in depth with numbers another great book that can be found on the net is Let there be range by Tri Nguyen when he discusses Combinatorics.

          Good luck on the felt
          cheers the Hamster


          • #6
            I'm currently reading Annie's book (and covering it in a study group), and have perused Tri Ngyuen's stuff...both = VERY good info.

            As for the comment and observation, I believe Oriholic was speaking tongue in cheek there...

            The old stale joke is: "I played it because it was sooooooooooted!"

            One of these days I plan to have a tee shirt made that says: "Suited Poop,is still poop!"

            (but with slightly different wording!)
            Double Bracelet Winner


            • #7
              your bluff

              hi there the bluf was good becuase it worked on that occassion however a really really risky play
              reminds me off me, how i played several weeks ago,and well eeeek i was a bad player,out of posistion bluffs really dangerous to do especially with a hand not even worth calling let alone raising,ive lost loads doing that as the good players just trap you and take bluffs like that apart,you was lucky this time but in the long run moves like that will destroy you believe me as a bad player who is improving listen to the pos advice theres some top guys on ere,ive improved 20 percent in the rankings listening to these and i thought i was clever trying to outplay everyone with no incite into how the opponent plays,however i also dont know u or you stats and u could be pro for all i know,and you may be able outplay the table,but either way 5 hands in,good point they didnt have a read on you,bad point you didnt have a read on them,thought i would comment
              and my general opinion didnt like it.


              • #8
                It was horrible, you got lucky.
                First learn to walk, then learn to bluff (hint hint, this is NL2).


                • #9
                  ok, wow.
                  Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012, 08:40 PM.


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by rule110 View Post
                    I mean what would you range this guy at here, and what should his percieved range of me be? Do you think his percieved range of me beats my percieved range of him. Do you think i get a lot of folds here?
                    Wrong assumption, people at NL2 don't think.


                    • #11
                      of course
                      Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012, 08:41 PM.


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by rule110 View Post
                        of course they think,,,
                        No they don't, that's why you beat the crap out of them by playing ABC poker that any trained monkey can do. If they were thinking, could a monkey beat them?


                        • #13
                          just what
                          Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012, 08:42 PM.


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by rule110 View Post
                            just what exactly is ABC poker? And how do you feel ABC poker relates to this hand? I mean, I'm playing 52o here.

                            besides just telling me to play ABC poker isn't very useful in a spot like this, I'm not folding on the flop when he chks to me you know
                            How is relevant playing 52o to ABC poker ?No idea, honestly. Beside the obvious - don't play it.


                            • #15
                              The kinds of thought processes villains have might surprise you. If you assume that villains will fold because that's what you would do in their position, then you're making a mistake. People don't think the way you want them to think. They think the way they think. Part of your job as a poker player is to identify how players think, hopefully before trying to take their money with unusual plays.

                              Puciek is right that you can beat the micros without playing bad hands. You really did not need to get involved here. Why put money in on a bluff when you have nothing committed to this pot and can just fold and wait for the next hand? Bluffing isn't something you do for fun or on a whim; it's something you do only when the situation is just right. Nothing about this situation says 'profitable bluff spot' to me.



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