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ultimate scare card?

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  • ultimate scare card?

    Hi everyone,
    Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012, 08:29 PM.

  • #2
    This is a discombobulated line you took. Consider...

    If you are playing a loose/passive game, one with a lot of check/calling and check/folding instead of betting and raising to put people to the test, you are going to find yourself tested quite a bit.

    To benefit your profitability at this table, you need to break out of that rut, as a passive AND loose game plan is pretty much as bad as it gets in Hold 'em.

    Pre Flop: at a short handed table, 99 figures to be pretty decent. You open for a min raise; why?

    A lot of what you've shown the table will encourage them to fire into you to get you to fold.
    If you do not mind folding when you do not flop a set, a LIMP with 99 is better than a min raise.
    If you wish to bust out of your pattern, you need to be raising a more standard amount with this hand.

    Either is fine, really, but the "middle way" in poker usually does not work very well.
    If I may, I'd like to tell a small parable that is only loosely poker related:

    In the US Civil war, there was a guy who lived right on the boarder between the north and the south.
    He simply could not decide on which side to support, since he had friends and family in both the North and the South's armies. It was a terrible quandry.

    One day, as a battle approach his farm, the man had to figure out an answer to his problem, and FAST!
    If the North won the battle, and he had decided to support the south,he was in trouble.
    If the South won and he;d supported the North, again he was in trouble.
    What could he do?

    That's when he hit on a brain storm to sole his problem!
    He decided that he;d put on a shirt that was blue (for the north), and pants that were grey (for the south).
    He thought that was perfect! NEITHER side could shoot him!

    Well as the battle lines drew up on either side of his house, he stepped outside confidently, knowing his plan was good. Unfortunately, it didn;t quite work out...

    Not a single northern bullet hit his chest at all...but the North shot the heck out of his legs.
    Not a single Southern bullet touched his legs...but the South shot the heck out of his chest!

    So in seeking to keep himself safe from both sides, all the man really did was make himself a TARGET for both sides.

    ...and that is a lot like what you are doing here.

    If you are reluctant to raise a standard amount because you fear an over card coming, and someone betting you off the pot, why raise at all? Limp instead, that way if you do not flop a set you will tend to lose LESS if you fold.

    If you do not like limping because you think someone will attack that limp with a raise pre flop, then raise a STANDARD amount, 3BB or 4BB to open. That allows you to represent a far wider range of hands on the flop, and increases the power of your C-Bets.

    Trying to take the middle way accomplishes very little in the way of applying pressure on opponents, and also exposes you to greater loss if you must fold.


    A single over card comes to your 9.
    the villain bets weakly (5c into a 23c pot).

    If you had raised stronger pre flop, you could try to represent the A by raising strongly over him.
    If you had limped pre flop, you could fold CHEAPER (if you intended to fold).

    As played though, You really should raise here to see where you are at. If the villain is drawing, you do not want to be letting him block you by allowing him to set his own price to draw. If you make it around 25c to 35c to go, you can still muck if he comes over you, OR if he flats, you can see what the turn brings.

    Flatting here leaves you very card dependant, and with only 2 outs (most likely) to improve your hand if you are behind.



    You hit one of your 2 outs!

    The problem is that you are now looking as a 3rd straight card on the board.

    when the villain leads out for only 10c, you have to recognize that you are most likely ahead, but there IS a chance he has something like 78 because of your weak pre flop raise.

    With this awareness, I do not like your large raise to 75c to go.

    That is the type of bet that creates a lare pot, with a good stack to pot ratio for your decision on the river, but that is only good for you if there is NO CARD WHICH COULD MAKE YOU FOLD!

    If you are willing to fold to a spade or a 4th straight card, then you'd have been better served raising only to around 40c or so to go. Betting the amount you did means that you are denying a price for ANY likely draw to call you with 1 to come, and you force most hands that are behind you to fold, while those ahead of you will tend to call or raise you.

    Creating the low SPR going into the river, if you will fold to some bad looking cards, then means you could possibly just be building a pot for someone else.


    Bad card. Puts both the 4 card straight, and the flush on the board.

    Villain goes all in for more than your stack, you fold yourself out of a $1.82 pot and keep about $2.80.

    I'll be honest; I think you were beat on the river, and you may have been beat on the turn.

    As such, your fold is probably a good one.

    That does not mean you played the hand very well, as your loss was bigger than it needed to be.

    If you;d raised stronger pre flop, a lot of drawing type hands could not be there much o the time.
    If you'd raised the flop to test what looked like a blocking bet, you may have found yourself winning a small pot without top pair.
    If you'd not "panic'ed" when you hit your set, and tried to bet a draw hand out of the pot with a big over bet, you;d have probably been able to muck a lot cheaper to the scary river card, and if you had info on the opponent that said your turn bet was ok because he might try to launch on a river scare card, then you could have gone ahead and called the river.

    As played though, this looks like you lacked focus throughout the hand, and waffled between one extreme and the other in your line.

    Take a clue from that farmer in the Civil, and do not try to take a middle path in hopes of being safe against bad outcomes. Trying to take a middle way really leaves you open to both aggressive value betting AND aggressive bluffs.

    the last thing you want to be is vulnerable to BOTH SIDES.

    Hope it helps.

    Last edited by JDean; Thu Dec 15, 2011, 07:25 AM.
    Double Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Definintely waiting on JDean's continuation, but I sort of like your line. I think your call on the flop is weird though. It has merit if you're okay calling down because you think that the guy is actually weaker than you and not on a draw, but almost 100% of the time I think he'll be stronger and/or on a draw, so raise/folding (my preference is folding) makes the most sense OTF. I like the turn and river actions a lot.

      Tally ho!


      • #4
        I shou
        Last edited by rule110; Sat Jun 09, 2012, 08:30 PM.



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