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How much is a draw worth?

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  • How much is a draw worth?

    So today's theme seems to be how badly I play AQ in 6 max. And I don't even win this hand - so that is really bad. I suppose the crux of my question here is, with overcards and a nut flush draw, should I be folding, calling to peel one more card, or as I do, reraising to get either a fold or a big pot for my draw? Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
    Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Wed Dec 07, 2011, 08:51 PM.
    4 Time Bracelet Winner



  • #2
    This flop is so damn dirt that i need a shower.

    You don't want to stack with naked A-flush draw on that board. If you get action here you are against a set or a smaller flush. You are not in good spot against a flush or a set. Call that 0.13 and if you miss, fold OTT.

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    • #3
      The effective stack here is pretty short, at just 40.5BB behind his post. If he had 3Bet you pre rather than flat calling, you could have probably gone ahead and 4bet him all in pre if he is on even a slightly wide 3bet range; you'd be racing often enough vs him with AQo to justify it...

      As played though, with the SPR going to the flop just under 6, I'm not certain you really want to stack off to him here with just a good draw. Consider...

      1) While you might be racing up to an over pair, you are a dog to any made non 1 pair hand; there are a lot of those possible here.

      2) If you are NOT Racing, if he is on a straight or a flush or 2 pair+, you are possibly as much as a 80/20 dog here, or even drawing dead.

      3) BECAUSE the villain's stack is small, his pot size lead can lead you to expect he is not going to let this hand go here.

      - Your nut draw and 2 overs here is really not enough to aggressively raise over him, because point 3 says you are too likely to be playing for stacks if you do so.

      - If you are NOT racing a 1 pair hand, point 2 tells you he does not have enough in his stack to make your gamble here +eV.

      - As hard as it is to accept, the board is just too coordinated to allow you to put him on JUST the 1 pair hand that is favorable to you here.

      Since you cannot call his flop lead without building the pot to where he can fire quite hard on the turn and deny you odds (or move in for a 2 pot bet even), your only real option is to fold this good draw to his pot bet.

      Ideally, good solid draws like yours want HIGH SPR (17+) pots so they can possibly win the most, or take it down immediately on a semi-bluff raise. A medium SPR (7 to 16) pot would be ok too, as that would leave you the option of calling and possibly drawing for the implied odds.

      Here though, the effective stack is just too low, as is the chance the villain is bluffing you or is on JUST a race hand for you, to allow you to keep going. Had you flopped top/top or even top/2nd, you could have acted as you did with reason, but the draw you have here just isn't in a good spot.

      Fold, and move on so you don;t lose more than the reward potential warrants.

      Hope it helps.

      -JDean
      Last edited by JDean; Wed Dec 07, 2011, 09:52 PM.
      Double Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        His stack is pretty short JD - I suppose that drew me in...
        4 Time Bracelet Winner


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        • #5
          yup...exactly. it happens Edin...

          Live and learn, ya know?
          Double Bracelet Winner

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          • #6
            With position and some implied odds I think you have to call his donk bet with the nut flush draw. Give up on the turn if you miss.

            Normally I want to raise his donk-bet but he's too short so by doing so you choose to play for stacks. But against his stack off range you're in terrible shape.
            4 Time Bracelet Winner


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            • #7
              Originally posted by oriholic View Post
              With position and some implied odds I think you have to call his donk bet with the nut flush draw. Give up on the turn if you miss.

              Normally I want to raise his donk-bet but he's too short so by doing so you choose to play for stacks. But against his stack off range you're in terrible shape.
              Why would you raise his donk bet here? What good will it bring? You only chase out a complete bluff (and that's a maybe, because if you got a flush here - why do you raise?) and get called by everything starting with top2. Heck i would prolly 3-bet you because this is so weak
              Last edited by Puciek; Wed Dec 07, 2011, 09:59 PM.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Puciek View Post
                If you get action here you are against a set or a smaller flush. You are not in good spot against a flush or a set. Call that 0.13 and if you miss, fold OTT.
                I agree. Versus two pair+, you're less than 33% to win, and this donk bet suggests to me that the villain is protecting his hand. The important point is that if he isn't, he can fold if you raise him, which he should be doing with his unmade hands, so raising is not as good as calling or folding.

                I actually think that folding OTF is better than calling, because you need implied odds to make a profitable call. I don't think you have those here. If another diamond comes, even sets will often fold because they know they're worthless, and even if the don't fold, they will improve a good amount of the time to beat you. I say fold the flop.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
                  I agree. Versus two pair+, you're less than 33% to win, and this donk bet suggests to me that the villain is protecting his hand. The important point is that if he isn't, he can fold if you raise him, which he should be doing with his unmade hands, so raising is not as good as calling or folding.

                  I actually think that folding OTF is better than calling, because you need implied odds to make a profitable call. I don't think you have those here. If another diamond comes, even sets will often fold because they know they're worthless, and even if the don't fold, they will improve a good amount of the time to beat you. I say fold the flop.
                  It's debatable really and depends on opponent. Against just a donk our A/Q may be live too so we are not just dead to a flush. But it really depends.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Puciek View Post
                    You are not in good spot against a flush or a set. Call that 0.13 and if you miss, fold OTT.
                    I totally agree. If it's me, I'm calling the 13 cent bet and if I don't get at least a piece of the turn, then I'm folding on the turn. If I get a piece of the turn, I'll see the river.
                    Super-Moderator



                    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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                    • #11
                      To be honest I'd play it the same way.

                      Not to keen on just calling the flop. If another diamond falls your action is dead.

                      I think villain can show up here with a tonne of hands other than a flush and a set. You hold a diamond so it makes him having made a flush even less likely.

                      I'd be getting it in every time here on the flop but I can be a spew monkey sometimes.

                      As a side note: It's best if people don't see the results just because it can affect the way people think about the hand. You'll get a more honest response
                      Last edited by pteridophyta; Sat Dec 10, 2011, 06:54 PM.

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