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Set on a flop where only 19 combos beat me

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  • Set on a flop where only 19 combos beat me

    Hi ; i think a couple of you may say standard cooler.

    But what if i mention that villain 3 played 35/10/AF 1,3 over 126 hands. Super passive station basically. Then he bets first multiway and jamms to my reraise. My feeling screamed AQ/KK here, but i could not get a rational behind a fold, so i called.

    Should i 've taken another line considering his stats.

    Seat 2: villain2 ($5.54 in chips)
    Seat 3: villain3 ($5.30 in chips)
    Seat 4: Rappeknaller ($5.64 in chips)
    Seat 5: villain5 ($5 in chips)
    Seat 6: villain6 ($9.39 in chips)
    villain6: posts small blind $0.02
    villain2: posts big blind $0.05
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Rappeknaller
    villain3: raises $0.07 to $0.12
    Rappeknaller: raises $0.28 to $0.40
    villain5: folds
    villain6: calls $0.38
    villain2: folds
    villain3: calls $0.28
    *** FLOP ***
    villain6: bets $0.45
    villain3: folds
    Rappeknaller: raises $0.90 to $1.35
    villain6: raises $7.64 to $8.99 and is all-in
    Rappeknaller: calls $3.89 and is all-in

  • #2
    I don't think KK just cold call here preflop,i mean he have some aggression (PFR number is 10) so he doesn't seem a totally passive fish. If i have to put a hand which i would be more scared,then it would be the Q9s and AQ.

    But because he calls wide,he can have some KTs type hand,and TT as well. So it's still seems a standard broke here.
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    • #3
      Assuming he only takes this line with 2 pair or better. And giving him only 1 combo off KK he somehow decides to slowplay

      Then his range contains 51 combos (KK,TT,AQo,KJo-KTo,Q9o,JTo,AQs,KJs-KTs,Q9s,JTs)
      I beat 18 combos = 35%
      Also the combos that beat me still leave me with 35% equity when shoving OTF.

      After he jamms i should call for certain. Also i think a call OTF would be bad.

      So no escaping going broke here i guess.


      • #4
        Yeah I also think with 1.3 AF he would be playing 2 pair or better here most of the time.

        If i calculated well,the pot odds is 39.1%. Putting your range in the equilab,you have more than 50%.

        So it seems the shove is +EV.

        Well calling only his donk could be an option because you are IP,but i bit dislike it on this board texture,because the Q and A could be an action killing card for his TT,KK and 2 pairs (and could be the reverse of that,because he can still bet there,and it will be more harder to call it down due to the one card straight).
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        • #5
          I would happily analyse this hand for you if you would give me certain details.For example what type of player is the 3rd villain and what type of player is the 6th villain,cause I don't really understand what you are saying.So you said the 3rd villain is passive and you said that he was the first one to bet.But as I see the 6th villain is the one who does that so you might have messed it up a little bit trying to explain the hand.So please explain it as clear as possible so I can analyse it,please!


          • #6
            I agree, it's unclear what information you're providing as you reference V3's stats and attribute action to V3, where the hand history shows V6 taking the attributed action.

            All that said, I think this is a pretty clean spot to get the money in. There are 3 hands that are ahead of us on this flop, even weighting them all in your range equity run we are still a small equity favorite, but imho they should not all be weighted into the range:

            KK: This hand would 4b pre at least some of the time. It is also a hand that most players who had cold called with it pre, would tend to check to the raisers on the flop going for a check raise. There are 3 combos of KK, it may not be fair to exclude them all but I think weighting this down to 1 combo is reasonable.

            Q9o: Is V6 really cold calling a 3B from OOP with this bad a hand? Not closing the action? This seems optimistic to me. 12 Combos, tbh I would exclude them all. I don't want to over-adjust, but I quite honestly would question all Q9 combos being involved here... rather than exclude all 16 though it's reasonable to include the 4 suited combos.

            AQ: This one is fair to leave all 16 combos in the preflop cold call range. That being said, it is again a strong tendency of micro players to slow play the flopped nuts. Those that don't, typically would check to the raiser here planning to check/raise. Donking out into the field with the flopped nuts is virtually unheard of. To the extent that I would certainly remove some if not most AQ combos from their range once they donk out.

            In short, there are compelling reasons to exclude a number of the combos of hands we're behind. I do think it's a good practice, when we are making our "best guess" adjustments to ranges, that we are careful to err on the side of caution against us. If we err in a way that works against us, and it's still a viable play to stack off, then we can feel comfortable the reality is probably even better and we haven't cooked up ranges to fit the play. So in what I would consider an abundance of caution, I'll count 2 combos of KK and all AQ combos, both of which I'm confident are an over adjustment not in our favor. We have 59% vs. this range.

            Board: KsJdTc
            Equity Win Tie
            UTG 59.00% 57.90% 1.10% { JsJc }
            UTG+1 41.00% 39.89% 1.10% { TT, KdKh, KdKc, AQs, KJs-KTs, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KJo-KTo, JTo }

            If I further remove all JTo combos (under the same premise as removing Q9o), that's also not in our favor as we destroy JTo, but we'd still be an equity favorite:

            Board: KsJdTc
            Equity Win Tie
            UTG 56.94% 55.87% 1.07% { JsJc }
            UTG+1 43.06% 41.99% 1.07% { TT, KdKh, KdKc, AQs, KJs-KTs, Q9s, JTs, AQo, KJo-KTo }

            Your line seems fine to me, we should do well in the long run in this spot.
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