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Aces dealt 13-14% less often than other pairs?

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  • Aces dealt 13-14% less often than other pairs?

    I have been using Holdem Manager for a few weeks and decided to look at the frequency with which I have been dealt the various pairs. Interestingly over a 20,000 hand pokerstars cash games hud I had aces 13% less often than any of the other pairs, I then went to my Ipoker cash games hud (14,000 hands)and found I had also had aces 14% less than any other pair on that site as well..... coincidence?? Over different sites? I'm skeptical about randomness here.
    Tourny play the randomness was ok over 43,000 hands over both sites.
    Could other users check this out with their stats please and report back.
    Use the holdem hole cards grid feature and use the drop down to change from bb/won/lost to hand count and hover over each pair to see how many times you have been dealt that pair.

  • #2
    Your sample isn't big enough.

    I could probably pick out a lot of anomalies in my 350,000 hands I have stored, for instance I've only hit quads once in that time while I've hit 2 royal flushes.

    Just concentrate on playing winning poker, there is nothing wrong with the RNG. When you have a few million hands stored then look at your stats again.
    Bracelet Winner

    Comment


    • #3
      And think about your sample, you hit AA once in only 221 hands, so in theory you should have 195 occurrences in your sample. You say you have 14% less than this so you have 168 hands stored. That's not a big difference and well within the statistical norm.
      Bracelet Winner

      Comment


      • #4
        I must be due a good run then

        Hand Occurrences

        AA 74
        KK 90
        QQ 96
        JJ 87
        TT 103
        99 111
        88 99
        77 116
        66 93
        55 91
        44 92
        33 91
        22 81

        (expected occurrence for sample size 90.2 19955 hands)

        I shall stick it into excel at work and see if anything is statistically significant. What concerns is that the levels are similar on different sites both on the cash games. I just wanted other HM2 users to check. I'd hate to start conspiracy theories.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Ovalman View Post
          Your sample isn't big enough.
          ^This^

          A couple months ago I was running a program that deals a NL-holdem hand to one player and records what they got. I was running 1 million hands or more at a time and regularly seeing variation in percentages for the rarer hands(quads+). Over 20,000 hands no doubt a lot of variation will be seen in much more common hands such as 1 pair.

          If you don't believe it I could possibly set up my program to run 20,000 hands. I could then compare the results to the expected outcome.

          Comment


          • #6
            hi figaroo,

            taken from a 129,296 hand sample of holdem ring rames

            K8o - 1095
            84o - 1091
            98o -1084
            55 - 626
            88 - 615
            TT - 610
            JJ - 601
            44 - 600
            66 - 593
            AA - 593
            QQ - 588
            22 - 580
            33 - 579
            KK - 570
            77 - 553
            99 - 551
            75s - 431
            87s - 428
            Q9s - 427
            65s - 427

            my poor 9's at the bottom of the heap, I think you have been stealing some of the 9's i should be being dealt whats with that?



            Grade b
            Last edited by Grade b; Sun Jan 13, 2013, 07:20 PM.
            I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

            13 Time Bracelet Winner


            Comment


            • #7
              yes my sample isnt massive,,,, thats not what i asked

              Well the expected outcome is 90 times for the sample size as we showed.
              I asked for other users to check their stats.
              I do trust pokerstars! Mind you I used to trust full tilt!
              I cant imagine why any site would want to reduce the amount of AA dealt in cash games, it would reduce the rake...more AA = more money in pot.
              When you check ones stats and find I an well down on AA compared to other pairs on two sites wouldn,t you raise an eyebrow?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by figaroo2 View Post
                Well the expected outcome is 90 times for the sample size as we showed.
                I asked for other users to check their stats.
                I do trust pokerstars! Mind you I used to trust full tilt!
                I cant imagine why any site would want to reduce the amount of AA dealt in cash games, it would reduce the rake...more AA = more money in pot.
                When you check ones stats and find I an well down on AA compared to other pairs on two sites wouldn,t you raise an eyebrow?
                Given the situation and data you have presented, no I wouldn't.

                Comment


                • #9
                  You have 2 x the sample which is why I quoted 195 times you were due it.

                  Just because you are 13% less than the norm doesn't mean the RNG will catch up with you. The rng has no memory or where it deals to. Just concentrate on what you do with the cards you actually get. The game is fair for all, everyone has the same rng cards.
                  Bracelet Winner

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    AA - 2344 - 7.57%
                    KK - 2370 - 7.66%
                    QQ - 2402 - 7.76%
                    JJ - 2447 - 7.90%
                    TT - 2331 - 7.53%
                    99 - 2419 - 7.81%
                    88 - 2408 - 7.78%
                    77 - 2414 - 7.80%
                    66 - 2382 - 7.69%
                    55 - 2322 - 7.50%
                    44 - 2406 - 7.77%
                    33 - 2322 - 7.50%
                    22 - 2392 - 7.73%

                    Out of 527,533 hands got 30,959 pairs and as you can see they are very close

                    Comment

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