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Confused: I think I got Bluffed

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  • Confused: I think I got Bluffed

    Here is a recent hand I played in 25NL My Analysis My Opp (Opponent) : Panas1985 - had been limping into a lot of pots and we did butt our heads together a few times and I took the pot down. Opp limps in, I Raise with TT from BB & I make it 4 times to go, 3x + 1x for him limping, may be I should have added an extra 1x for OOP (Out of Position) Opp calls, I check the flop as K scared me, (actually in one other previous hand with the same Opp, I had put him on AQ and we checked down as I didn't connect & he showed AQ. He had been limping with broadways earlier as well. - I now think cBETing was important - but at the time I wanted to pot control. Opp checks behind, On Turn, a blank hits, I bet to see where I am at, he calls & I still dont know if he has the goods. I put him on 45, KQ, KJ or he may be slow playing AK, as he had called my 4x after the limp. River an 8 hits - which should complete his straight, if he was playing 45 or 9T (which was unlikely as I had TT), If he had KQ, KJ, AK K9 etc he was ahead of me and now had the nuts. He moves ALL on river & I fold. The only thing that is bothering me about the hand is he moved ALL IN extremely QUICKLY, as if no matter what hit the river, he was gonna move all in anyway. Or he had already thought of taking the pot away from me by bluffing the river, since I had shown weakness to the over card on the flop.

  • #2
    Based upon your read, your selected betting line, and the stack size of the opponent, I think the turn bet was a bit of a mistake.
    Consider...

    Pre flop, TT is going to be an ok raising hand a lot of the time, as much of the hands which the villain will limp/call will tend to be races for you; you have the "good" side of those races. The problem is what do you do AFTER that?

    - Roughly 70% of the time there will be at least 1 over on the flop
    - You will not have info on whether that over has hit the villain until you've bet
    - The effective stack here does not allow you to fire 2 x "half pot bullets" at the pot without finding yourself committed for the remainder of the effective stack.

    These 3 factors together seem to have led you to NOT make your C-Bet on the flop. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that thought if you are facing an opponent who will use position strongly to "test" your hand, but...

    When you do that to follow a pot control line, you really are sticking yourself to that line.
    If you've adopted the pot control line, what has really changed to the turn to make you think you now have enough value to resume betting?

    By betting the turn, you are not going to accomplish much really, except get hands that are BEHIND your TT to fold (like draws), or bloating the pot further for any Ks+ you might be facing. Also, since you showed some "weakness" by not C-betting immediately, your turn bet leaves ample chips for the opponent to put you to a test on just about ANY river.

    I would think it would have served you much better to maintain the pot control line on the turn once you elected it on the flop, simply because that would have allowed you to fold to a large bet far cheaper than you actually did. Alternately...

    Make your $1 pre-flop raise.
    Follow it up with a $1 to $1.50 C-Bet.
    When the somewhat blank turn hits, make a $3 or so bet which will clearly signal to the villain you are NOT folding to a jam for his remaining $3.50 or so if he flats THAT.

    Doing this would have given you a somewhat clearer signal whether or not your TT was still good, as he would have been all but forced to shove or fold the turn. If you are behind, sure you LOSE more chips, but you do not let yourself become too bluff-able.

    The key thing here though is:

    Either elect EARLY whether you are willing to play your TT hard

    OR...

    If you choose to play it slower, do not get off that horse once you've climbed on; your hand does not hold enough value to call a big river bet which may or may not be a bluff. Had you spiked your 2 out-er, or even picked up an 8 out straight draw (would have required an 87 flop, not 67), then I'd say your bet is "ok"...but not as the board stood.

    Your betting line left too many chips in the villain's stack on the river for you to call, and the turn bet added MORE to the pot than needed to be there.
    Last edited by JDean; Tue Sep 27, 2011, 02:34 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Thank you

      Thank you so much,.... the analysis you gave has lead me to rethink the entire hand in a different light... really, it was an eye opener... thanks once again.

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      • #4
        don't forget about a set. Limp, then call can very easily be a low pair that flopped or turned a set.

        Their line looks like a set of 3's to me.
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


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