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Value betting a set

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  • Value betting a set

    This guy was a LAG player. I played it standard on the flop. He reraised me immediately on the flop so I assumed that he has nothing maybe an Ace high/air flush draw, I think that with a real hand he would think a little bit and then make a move. So I decided to call and check raise on the turn if he will fire another bullet. Unfortunately he checked on the turn , so I think what types can call me, AK/AJ/any low pocket pair without made set so I decided to go for a very thin value bet, in addition it looks pretty weak and he can think of a reraise bluff on the river which is exactly what he did. His hand was AQ offsuite. Wanted to share with you, will happy to see what you think

  • #2
    NOTE: Your top set was not "thin value" at all on the river; it was the "practical nuts".
    "Practical nuts" is defined as a NON-NUT hand, but one which can only be beaten by a really "wild" holding by an opponent.

    In the case here, only 34/79/74 beats you, but since each of these are very un-likely hands to call your pre-flop UTG raise, you hold a hand with a very strong chance of being best. A "Thin Value" bet here would be betting something like an As8s hand on the river, versus a LAG opponent who you feel has a strong chance to hold just a flush draw (without the J). See this link:

    As played, you did quite well in leveraging the tendencies of a loose and aggressive opponent to get maximum value form what stood to be a pretty strong lock win.

    Pre-Flop:JJ is certainly good enough to raise UTG at a 6 max table.
    When the LAG flats, chances are still quite good you hold the best.

    Flop:You bink top set and hold the nut hand.
    Normally, when facing a LAG opponent, it would be preferable to CHECK a hand this big.
    But with 2 spades on board, and the chance a 3rd spade MAY cause you to hold a strong 2nd best hand, there certainly is not anything "wrong" with leading into a LAG.

    The reason a check is usually preferable is that if the villain has even a modicum of post flop "sense", he will not call (or raise) a UTG lead bettor on a J high board with air, or a weak semi bluff. This means your lead out does not give him any chance to "catch up" to a 2nd best hand unless he hols a strong draw or a "decent" made hand (AJ/KJ at minimum). By checking, you express some measure of "weakness" he may then try to attack if you check or lead the turn. Your lead bet on the flop would be preferable to a check if you feel the villain would actually be more apt to "attack" ANY bet you make on a single face card flop. BUT...

    To mix up your game, you really do NOT want to become too predictable in your patterns with hands like these. This means some of the times you will want to check, and some of the times you'll want to lead hands like these (even on totally un-coordinated boards) to "balance" your actions, and avoid throwing off discernable patterns which may lead to opponents not paying you off. The fact there are 2 spades, and a 3rd one appearing does represent a "suck out" threat to you, also weighs (slightly) in favor of a lead bet. So if you find yourself in a situation like this in the future just remember: doing ANYTHING here exactly the same way every time will tend to cost you value in the long run. This is why your lead is jsut fine, even if you do not feel there is a strong chance he will keep launching money in on weak cheese.

    When the villain does raise your lead, we consider these things:

    Obviously, if you could have found a way to get all your chips in on this flop, that is awesome for you, but with the stack sizes what they were, flatting his raise over you is much more likely to get the stack off you seek. It would take not only a LAG, but a "maniac" to be willing to stack off $7.47 more without a VERY strong draw or a made hand. Of draws, only hands the villain perceives as 15 out draws (hands like 34s = 15, A3s/A4s = 15 if he feels an A might be good, AQs/AKs = 15 if he feels an A/K/Q would be good) could really be considered worthwhile to call a re-raise by you, and even those draws may NOT 4bet jam you.

    So again, the flat of his raise expresses a measure of "weakness" which your hand does not possess, and that expression may lead to greater value in the pot if you do NOT try immediately for the all-in. Nice job.

    Turn:Comes a totaly blank 8c.
    You check.

    That check is exactly what you want to do agaisnt an aggressive opponent.
    You still hold the nut hand, and since the villain raised you on the flop, you have no reason to believe he holds total air now.
    This means he is quite likely to fire into you with a semi-bluff to the spades (if that is what he holds), as well as a wider range of made hands (due to a perception that YOU may just be spade drawing).

    The pot has grown large enough that ANY turn lead by the villain gets you the stack off chance you are hoping for, because even a 1/3rd pot bet by villain would make a pot size raise by you equivalent to an all-in for him. Since yous till hold the nut hand, this is DEFINATELY what you want. Unfortunately, the villain checks behind, and takes the free card. ICK!

    River:The river comes a pretty blank 6c, and the most likely draw (to spades) has not filled.

    Unfortunately for you, the villain's check behind on the turn means he has pretty much put himself dead red on a draw, with only an additional SMALL chance he holds a very strong made hand (like top 2 pair+). The reason a strong made hand is even slightly possible is that he may feel good enough about his hand strength to check to induce YOU to "bluff", but with an AGGRESSIVE opponent this is far less likely than him holding a draw.

    The only draws a 6c fills would be 34/97/74.
    None of these hands are very likely to be calling hands versus a UTG raiser.
    Of these, the only non spade suited combo's of these hands which might stick around after your larger than 1/2 pot bet MIGHT be 34o; 74/97 would all but HAVE to be suited in spades for even a LAG player to call your flop bet.
    This represents a VERY NARROW range which has you beat. (this is why your value bet on the riv was not "thin")

    I quite like your $1.25 river bet, into the $5.47 pot.

    If you are facing a totally busted draw, this amount if probably not call-able, but then NO amount is really cal-able after the action to this point.
    This means the only option a busted hand has to win this bloated pot is to RAISE.
    Your $1.25 bet may appear to give that "window of weakness" to many LAG players, that signals a possibility you'll fold to the THREAT of the very narrow range.

    To be honest, if you had held a weaker made hand, such as KJ, the sort of raise the villain makes on the river WOULD be quite scary to you, so your $1.25 sizing would not have been "good" without the true strength you have. With weaker made hands, you want to either bet MORE to make it an easier decision to commit to calling a raise, or check with the intent of snapping off a bluff by him. But with the strength you DO hold, betting an amount configured to induce a bluff raise is exactly what you want to do. Well done.

    When the villain bites, and launches all but 83c into the pot, your decision is obvious: re-ship, high 5 the screen, and scream "EAT IT"!

    Well played.
    Last edited by JDean; Thu Sep 15, 2011, 11:26 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      NH pavelfur. The primary thing you want to do against a LAG with a monster is to show weakness and let him go wild like LAG's often do.

      While you could have considered a check on the flop, I think your bet works well here too. If your C-betting a reasonable amount the LAG villain will often think this flop has missed you and take an aggressive action. When you take this line and he does aggress, calling his raise is a great move - it shows weakness. He is probably thinking you either missed the flop, have an underpair, or an overpair. When you call, he is going to dismiss the overpair possibility. He then will possibly decide he can push you off the the two remaining likely possibilities. I'm not sure why he checked behind on the turn, but you were right to show more weakness and give him an opportunity to continue betting. I like your river bet, because again it is showing plenty of weakness. My guess is he put you on an underpair, or complete air like a missed flush draw. Very possibly the underpair since with AQ he could have just called you and went to showdown if you had air. That left him with two options - fold his losing hand or push you off yours. So you managed to conceal the strength of your hand and convince him that he could push you out of the hand.

      Well played, good job manipulating his flaws.



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