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Interesting Live nlhe hand

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  • Interesting Live nlhe hand

    This was an interesting hand, thought the forum members might like to discuss.

    Live $1-$3 NLHE cash game at the casino near my house (buy in is from $100-$300). Line up is fairly typical weak low limit players. Aprox. starting stacks included.

    UTG ($100) limps for $3, loose fish who always buys in for the minimum, bleeds himself down to $40-$50 and then stacks the rest off super light multiple times a night, rebuying for $100 each time... he's fresh off his first rebuy having been in the game for a whopping 20 minutes now lol.

    UTG+1 (~$350) raises to $11. First time I've played with him, this is his standard open and he's fairly loose-aggressive pre but not wild post.

    MP ($200) calls $11... loose-passive fish

    LP ($250) calls $11... loose-passive fish

    SB (Me $550) calls $10 with 8h7h

    BB (short stack) calls $8... Regular at this casino who basically plays a pretty conservative game, almost nitty at times, but has taken a few recent beats and seems like he's tilting a bit... the first time in several sits I've seen him tilt. I'm sitting in the 9 seat and he's in 1, and I can't quite see his stack around the dealer, but he just lost a pot the hand before leaving him fairly short.

    UTG calls $8 more.... 100% as expected.

    Flop: 2c 3s Jh

    I check, it checks around

    Turn: (2c 3s Jh) 3h

    With everyone showing weakness on the flop (pretty sure Jx or better would have bet in this crowd), being in the blind position (I can reasonably hold a 3 in their eyes or easily have checked to the raiser with a jack on the flop) and picking up the flush draw, I opt to semi-bluff.

    I bet $20... I know this is a bit small relative to the size of the pot but trust me, weak live players have no idea how much money is in the pot... this bet is plenty to shake off anyone who doesn't have much.

    BB goes all in for $40 total.

    Everyone folds back to me, $20 more to call.

    Thoughts???

    -Preflop thoughts?
    -Flop plan to check/fold I think is standard
    -Turn approach thoughts?
    Last edited by TheLangolier; Tue Aug 30, 2011, 10:01 PM.
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  • #2
    Pretty loose from sb, but gettin' pretty good odds to see the flop. Tough to get good value in that pos if you flop big, (maybe not in that company) I think your short stack reg hit part of that board (not on draw imo), so your probably gonna have to hit to win, but 20 to win 146 is a snap call imo. 7+/1 on a 4/1 draw. I'm takin' that all day long. (especially if you think your guy's a bit tilty right now) lemme guess.... You hit your heart and he turned over quads...
    Last edited by mtnestegg; Tue Aug 30, 2011, 10:20 PM.
    May the tinfoil protect you. MT

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    • #3
      Originally posted by mtnestegg View Post
      lemme guess.... You hit your heart and he turned over quads...

      Hahaha, I will tell the result of course but that is one of the considerations, there is the possibility I'm drawing worse than I think or even drawing dead. How much that possibility should weigh into it is for you (the reader) to decide.
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      • #4
        Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
        Hahaha, I will tell the result of course but that is one of the considerations, there is the possibility I'm drawing worse than I think or even drawing dead. How much that possibility should weigh into it is for you (the reader) to decide.
        not too much based on your read on villain and relative low cost to see the river, you are probably behind, based on hand strength alone.. he probably has A rag maybe A4 or A5 but I would be willing to call

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        • #5
          I would have folded pre, I'm not as big a fan of SC's as some, I might play it from the button, where I would feel a lot more comfortable bluffing if the situation presented its self. Middling SC's are so difficult for me to play well OOP, Id rather just fold em.

          On the turn I don't like bluffing into this many opponents. The thought that Jx would have bet I think is true, however I'm not sure your opponents are ready to give you credit for a 3, you would have to be playing really loose to show up with a 3.

          Now conservative "almost nitty" guy goes all in which gives you huge odds on a call. If he's a little tilted he could have A3, but I think he's probably on JJ, 22, AJ, KJ, QJ or higher flush draw. Against this range were in bad shape.

          Comment


          • #6
            realistically, you have to figure your behind whatever this guy holds w/ an 8 high, but with what you have to figure is 9 outs, I think ya just gotta make that call. being on tilt he might've made the call from the bb w/ A3s or 2 big hearts, but I think more likely a middle pair he thinks is good. He really can't be tryin to bluff you off w/ that raise. He's gotta have some kind of made hand, but the odds it's a boat or quads I think are pretty slim
            May the tinfoil protect you. MT

            Comment


            • #7
              Yeah we can't possibly be ahead with 8 high. But even if the guy is shipping 99 or TT were still in bad shape, we only have 18% equity vs those hands. Getting 7.3:1, we need 12% equity to call, so in the long run I suppose we can make the call profitable, but it's definitely marginal.

              If the guy is shipping 66 or 55, than it's obvious call, but I don't think he is shoving that wide.
              Last edited by PaidInFull6; Tue Aug 30, 2011, 11:41 PM.

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              • #8
                preflop i probably would have folded but ok lets play!!

                the way i read it! altough how i think i read!

                i think at worst he's on a better flush draw then u! it's cheap to call true but i think u are way behind!

                u have 9 outs and good odds so the nubbers add up but i am not that sure!

                i would probaly call just because off the odds

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                  -Preflop thoughts?
                  I'm torn, so I'm going to look at all things I can before deciding...

                  1) NO call in.

                  I am only flopping a MADE hand about 5% of the time (2 pair+) that I'd be happy to call a jam by the effective stack.

                  I am facing the strong chance of the initial raiser, the LAG, C-Betting on the order of $30, and without a strong reads that he will fold to a semi-bluff C/R, that price is getting a bit too steep for an 8 or 9 out draw if that is all I flop (the bulk of good flops, beyond single pairs, that I'm going to get from my hand).

                  I am facing a short stack who may well jam into the bloated pot and not set me a good price for my draw.

                  2) YES call in.

                  I am against a passive table, who may well check thru, or bet smaller, letting me draw for decent implied odds (if the shortie folds, effective stack is $200).

                  It is "only" $11 to take a shot at certainly stacking SOMEONE if I do hit big; and except for the shortie I am stacking at least $200.

                  My draw type hand is made MORE PLAYABLE by the fact the UTG limp/called in; I can check draw flops, and get good relative position versus the LAG open raiser if the BB does not come along.

                  If the BB elects to "stand" (more likely than a flat for a big part of his stack), I can easily fold my investment and still have the ability to stack anyone at the table.

                  3) RE-RAISE to enter instead.

                  Meh.

                  I might win the pot outright, but my RR would have to be on the order of $50+ to go.
                  That is a bit too much faith to put into 87s vs. 4 potential Loose callers in my opinion.

                  Plus, it is sticking me 100% for the BB's tilt-y action to come.
                  I'm hating 87h if the BB even calls just because he wants to re-buy and re-start.
                  (Note: in live play, donking off the rest of a BI is really a pretty common reaction by a short stack who feels he wants to "start fresh", instead of simply adding more to the short stack out of pocket. I do not understand it myself, that's still $50 or so, but it DOES happen!)

                  So my Decision is...

                  - The "ABC" play is to FOLD.
                  - This is simpler, costs me just 1/3rd a BB, and ensures I do not get into any trouble from a chase in the hand.
                  - Not entirely sure I WANT to "avoid" an investment of $10 when I might have a chance to stack off at least a $200 pile though...

                  - A Re-Raise is simply too expensive and too risky to like at all...

                  - I think I am good enough as a player to avoid losing a LARGE POT here because of the relative position I have on the initial raiser.
                  The 2 most likely people to bet me off this pot are the shortie in the BB (who might jam the flop if he flats, or jam PRE), or the Initial raiser, and in either case I can check the flop and see that before I'm deeper than $11 in the pot.

                  - Adding to that, a PASSIVE table is just too likely to allow me to pick my own "blocker bet" sizing for any draw I flop, or even check through to give me free cards, for me not to get inolved.

                  - Since they are BAD PLAYERS, as well as passive, I will almost certainly get a lesser hand to stack off to me if I hit better than 2 pair at any point.

                  So all in all, i'm certainly "looking left" to see if I can pick up ANY tell by the short stack to direct me here.
                  If he doesn't give me clear indications he is coming along, I am going to play this I think.

                  Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                  -Flop plan to check/fold I think is standard
                  Very.

                  You have essentially no value in your hand, with no clean single card outs at all.

                  There are too many in the pot to try running a bluff very profitably, even with all the checks.

                  Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                  -Turn approach thoughts?
                  I think your decision to lead $20 is certainly aggressive.

                  If you know this semi-bluff has a reasonable chance to work, and it probably does with all the checks, then I cannot say it is BAD.

                  I'm sure you recognized the fact a short stack Jam now (after your $20 lead) is going to lay you a $20 to win $126 price (6 to 1, even after $5 rake and $1 bad beat jackpot).
                  I'm also sure you know you will hit the flush on the river about 1 time in 5 (~20% chance).

                  With the price of the pot giving you only a expectation of win at 14.3% of the time to be "break even" for a call (if a flush you make is good 100% of the time),
                  you have to assess whether you think there is greater than a 30% chance now a flush will only make you a 2nd best hand.

                  (Note: I derive that 30% number by taking: 20% - 14% = 6%, That gives the overlay for a 100% flush hit being good chance. Then 6 / 20 = .30 to get how often you can be WRONG, and still be profitable with the given overlay. I am NOT certain this is correct, but it "feels" right to me. I would really appreciate any correction if I am wrong).

                  So it is really not an automatic" call of his jam, but it may well be close.
                  Double Bracelet Winner

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    JD , am I wrong in that i'm adding daves 20$ call to the win pot size? Making the win 146 and thus laying him 7+/1? My odds have been wrong for quite some time if so
                    May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      You do not add the price of your call to the pot when determining your pot odds.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by mtnestegg View Post
                        JD , am I wrong in that i'm adding daves 20$ call to the win pot size? Making the win 146 and thus laying him 7+/1? My odds have been wrong for quite some time if so
                        Nope. I do not think so.

                        Dave's FIRST $20 lead is part of the pot. He put that in, and it no longer "belongs" to him.
                        At that point, if I've added correctly, the pot is $86.

                        Then the short stack jams in for $40 TOTAL ($20 more for Dave to call).
                        That amount gets added to the pot, bringing it to $126.

                        When it comes back to Dave, he is faced with a $20 call, for a chance to win $126...NOT $146.

                        Remember, he can still FOLD and not invest that $20 at all, so if he does invest it, he is not "winning" that amount.

                        See?

                        ...of course it could just be my addition of the pot was incorrect, and the pot IS $146 before Dave puts in the last $20. In that case then his odds would be 7 to 1.
                        Double Bracelet Winner

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                        • #13
                          I just re-checked to be POSITIVE.

                          The pot was $126 when Dave was contemplating calling the remaining $20 from the short stack's shove.

                          His odds were 6 to 1 (assuming a $5 Illinois rake at 10% pot to a max of $5, and a $1 and beat jack pot drop).
                          Double Bracelet Winner

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by JDean View Post
                            I just re-checked to be POSITIVE.

                            The pot was $126 when Dave was contemplating calling the remaining $20 from the short stack's shove.
                            Correct.
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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by PaidInFull6 View Post
                              On the turn I don't like bluffing into this many opponents. The thought that Jx would have bet I think is true, however I'm not sure your opponents are ready to give you credit for a 3, you would have to be playing really loose to show up with a 3.
                              Yeah, I'm not a proponnent of bluffing a large field (semi-bluffing in this case), but the situation was about as ideal as could be for this many opponents, with everyone checking the flop which is a pretty genuine indicator of the field not having much, and the 3 unlikely to change a lot. The biggest concern, ironically, was the BB checking to the raiser with a jack, or holding a 3. So him going all in was kinda gross.

                              But yes even though I thought this was a good spot for betting the turn, it was certainly ambitious.
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