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2nd nuts monotone action

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  • 2nd nuts monotone action

    PokerStars Game #66159915339: Tournament #434010733, $15.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (25/50) - 2011/08/17 22:45:08 WET [2011/08/17 17:45:08 ET]
    Table '434010733 99' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
    Seat 1: Widzywidzy^^ (2082 in chips)
    Seat 2: Oktay+Ece (1700 in chips)
    Seat 3: Melkor69 (1895 in chips)
    Seat 4: donkmundur1 (4535 in chips)
    Seat 5: drlittlemike (1955 in chips)
    Seat 6: LaliTournier (2105 in chips)
    Seat 7: TheGrinders7 (1940 in chips)
    Seat 8: ssuussii (2570 in chips)
    Seat 9: serjjj2011 (1448 in chips)
    donkmundur1: posts small blind 25
    drlittlemike: posts big blind 50
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to Widzywidzy^^ [Qh Th]
    LaliTournier: folds
    TheGrinders7: folds
    ssuussii: calls 50
    serjjj2011: calls 50
    Widzywidzy^^: calls 50
    Oktay+Ece: calls 50
    Melkor69: calls 50
    donkmundur1: calls 25
    drlittlemike: checks
    *** FLOP *** [4h 6h Kh]
    donkmundur1: checks
    drlittlemike: checks
    ssuussii: bets 250
    serjjj2011: folds
    Widzywidzy^^: calls 250
    Oktay+Ece: calls 250
    Melkor69: calls 250
    donkmundur1: raises 4235 to 4485 and is all-in
    drlittlemike: folds
    ssuussii: calls 2270 and is all-in
    Widzywidzy^^: calls 1782 and is all-in
    Oktay+Ece: calls 1400 and is all-in
    Melkor69: calls 1595 and is all-in
    Uncalled bet (1965) returned to donkmundur1
    *** TURN *** [4h 6h Kh] [8c]
    *** RIVER *** [4h 6h Kh 8c] [6c]

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I will post the results later. Does anyone mind this call?

    I was super suprised by the two calls behind me btw.

    Dont want to add my thought process until i've seen a few replies :p

    Oh and just out of curiousity, which player are you worried about more? The shove, the call, the players behind?
    Last edited by Widzywidzy^^; Thu Aug 18, 2011, 01:01 AM.

  • #2
    That's real early in a tourney to be all-in without the absolute nuts. Yes, you flop a flush, but there are alot of things out there that can beat you.
    With that many limping, one most likely has the A of hearts.... if not a higher flush already. Someone else could easily have a set, that turns into a full house or quads on the river.

    Honestly, that hand is a muck that early preflop.

    I'd be least worried about the ones after... they're priced in with way, way too many draws. Either the original shover, or first caller, are who I'd be worried about the most.
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
      That's real early in a tourney to be all-in without the absolute nuts. Yes, you flop a flush, but there are alot of things out there that can beat you.
      With that many limping, one most likely has the A of hearts.... if not a higher flush already. Someone else could easily have a set, that turns into a full house or quads on the river.

      Honestly, that hand is a muck that early preflop.

      I'd be least worried about the ones after... they're priced in with way, way too many draws. Either the original shover, or first caller, are who I'd be worried about the most.
      Limp pf is fine to get in cheap early with a hand with potential to see a flop, pretty much everyone will agree. Accumulating a stack early is crucial in these tournaments imo.

      I assumed the shove was kinda donkish protection from draws with minimum TP and the call was at a minimum AhKx, a set, but probably a small flush happy to get it in obv. The calls behind looked like one almost definately had Ah but why would I ever fold here. The odds of the player with Ah having another heart after the call to the shove was probably hearts, and including mine and the board, that only gives a player with Ah in their hand another 5, not including chances of the shove having a hand like K9 with 9 of hearts, meaning 4. To fold with the odds compared with chances hand is good in this hand would be sheer paranoia and nothing else imo. You could argue that it is a crying call of sorts but I am happy to get it in here, we always have the possible J9 straight flush draw
      Last edited by Widzywidzy^^; Thu Aug 18, 2011, 03:28 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        Board: Kh 4h 2h
        Dead:

        equity win tie pots won pots tied
        Hand 0: 51.012% 51.01% 00.00% 378 0.00 { QhTh }
        Hand 1: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { Jh7h }
        Hand 2: 02.159% 02.16% 00.00% 16 0.00 { Kd9h }
        Hand 3: 14.980% 14.98% 00.00% 111 0.00 { Ah3d }
        Hand 4: 31.849% 31.85% 00.00% 236 0.00 { 4c4s }

        This is probably a good example of what I could be up against. Do you think it is right to fold 51% equity for these odds?

        Comment


        • #5
          You could also be up against something like this:

          Board: Kh 6h 4h
          Dead:

          equity win tie pots won pots tied
          Hand 0: 73.954% 73.95% 00.00% 548 0.00 { QhTh }
          Hand 1: 00.540% 00.40% 00.13% 3 1.00 { KcQd }
          Hand 2: 14.170% 14.04% 00.13% 104 1.00 { Kd6s }
          Hand 3: 00.135% 00.13% 00.00% 1 0.00 { Jh8h }
          Hand 4: 11.201% 11.20% 00.00% 83 0.00 { 4c4s }

          You wouldn't want to fold in this case would you?

          Only 7 hands beat you (AhJh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah5h, Ah3h, Ah2h) there are so many ways to make a worse hand on this board you have to play here.

          Comment


          • #6
            I think with all this action going on, your looking at at least one set, and probably the nut draw. If not the nuts, you are probably ahead here, but lots of cards can roll with 2 to come, and when that board paired, I would have just let out a big sigh, and expected the chips to be moving in another direction. I also would put the villains on a range, and not specific hands. Jmo for what its worth.
            Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Aug 18, 2011, 03:22 PM.
            May the tinfoil protect you. MT

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by mtnestegg View Post
              If not the nuts, you are probably ahead here
              I lol'd at this.

              Each villain has a specific range :p Generally it is tighter in the middle of these spots than the beginning or end though.

              Comment


              • #8
                Lol away...umbup: I only put tha because there ARE hands that your behind here. Odds are slim but not nonexistent.
                May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Widzywidzy^^ View Post
                  I lol'd at this.

                  Each villain has a specific range :p.
                  Oh and thanks I loled too.. Never heard 1 hand bein called a specific "range" i'll have to try that in the future.
                  May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mtnestegg View Post
                    Oh and thanks I loled too.. Never heard 1 hand bein called a specific "range" i'll have to try that in the future.
                    Saying Ah/x is a range, saying set/TPAh/2p/small flush is a range, idk where you're getting this from?

                    I lol'd at your statement because you said if the guy doesn't have the nuts, im PROBABLY ahead. If he doesn't have the nuts, I am obviously ahead as I have the 2nd nuts lol? Thats what I found funny :p

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      lol my mistake. my punctuations were backwards. What I meant was you were looking at the nut draw (comma) if not the nuts (period) you're probably ahead here....... as written you're right definetely worth an lol I just meant w/ 4 villains willing to go to the wall on the flop, the nuts are definetely not out of the relm of possibility.
                      And i'm 100% you were ahead because the hand wouldn't have been posted otherwise
                      Btw I think u got ur chips in good.long run hugely profitable, what more could u ask
                      Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Aug 18, 2011, 07:05 PM.
                      May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I hope you won the hand... but here's an appropriate quote (from TJ Cloutier by way of JDean) "Don't go broke on a hand that you won't raise with preflop".
                        Super-Moderator



                        6 Time Bracelet Winner


                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                          I hope you won the hand... but here's an appropriate quote (from TJ Cloutier by way of JDean) "Don't go broke on a hand that you won't raise with preflop".
                          So if I limp in with 22 I shouldn't go broke on a A2255 board? :p Worst quote ever lol. Anyway heres the hand. You could say I technically made the right reads and got it in good when the action was on me, kinda forced to. Was suprised to see that no-one had sets but I was worried about the all-in calls behind me as they were either crazy draws with odds (set drawing to FH knowing its beat) or nuts.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            If you have 22 and limped in, and saw an A22 flop...

                            And you kept the pot SMALL, until the last 5 fell...

                            Yup...you'd be a moron to go broke in a deep money situation.

                            ...and I'd kinda think that a BETTER candidate for "worst quote ever" would probably be one made by someone who puts out a REQUEST for a hand analysis, when OBVIOUSLY, he knows it all already...

                            I'm just sayin'...



                            In this spot, a QTs limp pre is kinda spew-y TBH...

                            I am basing that on the assumption that this many people willing to put their tourney life at risk means that not EVERYONE has an A hi flush (nor even an A hi flush draw), or a set.

                            Since there are essentially 5 all ins in this hand, I'm guessing that the players here have shown some kind of willingness to throw chips around pretty strongly. This means you can expect the flop to bring some pretty heavy chip moves just about every time.

                            If that is the case, how often are you likely getting the ability to play QTh for its DRAW VALUE?

                            How often are you going to be confident playing a "big pot" with any single pair hand made with a QT (the "most likely" flop hit)?

                            Speculative hands, those with a LOT of their equity tied to flopping DRAWS, benefit from playing SMALL POTS until they've hit. Because QT is going to have kicker issues with any pair it flops, You'd also have a pretty tricky decision set in a likely large pot.

                            That leaves you feeling confident to play a hand such as this, out of position in a likely "big pot", only when you hit for 2 pair or better. Those hands will happen only about 5% of the time FOR ALL COMBINATIONS of hands that MIGHT be playable in a big pot situation...

                            So if you are using the fact you flopped a flush as justification for playing QTs UTG +2, that really is just luck. You'd be far better served in MTT poker dumping hands like that oop on the sort of dynamic probably at work here.

                            When you DO enter, and you DO flop the 2nd nut flush, you are still looking at 1 hand which might be ahead of you; for every person willing to jam all their chips in, the chance you ARE facing that 1 hand goes way way up.

                            At best though, you are fading DRAWS to run you down.

                            Ah has about a 35% shot at you since he will see the turn and the river.
                            Any set has about 37% chance to run you down, because he too will see both cards.

                            ONLY because you are getting at least a triple up is it even WORTH thinking about fading all those outs, as well as the chance someone already has you beat (and drawing essentially dead).

                            So I'm not saying this is "wrong" to do, but it really is not a situation you need to be courting a whole lot of the time...

                            Next time, if the villains are this wild, save yer 50 chips and stay out of pots oop with cheese hands liek QTs.
                            Last edited by JDean; Fri Aug 19, 2011, 03:15 PM.
                            Double Bracelet Winner

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by JDean View Post
                              If you have 22 and limped in, and saw an A22 flop...

                              And you kept the pot SMALL, until the last 5 fell...

                              Yup...you'd be a moron to go broke in a deep money situation.

                              ...and I'd kinda think that a BETTER candidate for "worst quote ever" would probably be one made by someone who puts out a REQUEST for a hand analysis, when OBVIOUSLY, he knows it all already...

                              Lol yes because if a guy shoved for 2k chips into a 500 pot on A2255 and you had quads, you would obv fold cause he MUST have 55 right? Don't talk shit. IDK whats worse, claiming this, or suggesting to keep the pot small and not go broke with quads.

                              I posted this hand mainly because I wanted to hear peoples thoughts and opinions on what villain looked most threatening as it was the unlikely candidate who had me beat, and to see if anyone could get it right, as to see if in my own mind, I made the right decision. You and everyone else said shove and call were the most threatening, so that part of your read was obviously bad and I don't think you fully thought the hand through. You are just speculating that because the board is x then the situation is y when you should be considering other elements. Obviously as you didn't have history with these players (I can't honestly remember too much about it but in the frame of mind I was in at that table it was much easier than it looked to snapcall, I guess they were donkeys) then you can't be criticized too much for that though.

                              I am not in this forum because i'm a bad player and want super amazing advice from people who think their good, or possibly are good, i'm not posting this hand cause I need the forum mod pros to help me improve as a player, I treat this section of the forum as a DISCUSSION based hand analysis, such as the one they have on twoplustwo etc, but I do enjoy taking advice and hearing opinions from players with different mindsets in hands provided that they have some sense of logic to them.

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