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Duplicate Poker Hand #1: THE RESULTS!

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  • Duplicate Poker Hand #1: THE RESULTS!

    This is what goes down:

    We raise, making it 6500 to go (This fits with the vote, I am just assigning an exact number).

    Lou smiles broadly, gives thumbs up to Candy on the rail.
    Candy says "oooooooooooooooo", claps her hands very quickly and excitedly...
    Lou then looks back at us and almost challengingly announces: "All In".

    Obviously, with the nut hand I do not need to put up another poll, do I?

    We CALL.

    Lou Tables KQh, for 2nd nut flush.
    Our AhTh makes the nut flush, for the win.

    Result: we take down a pot of 26325, and increase our stack to 32975 (14575 net win).

    Monica sighs loudly, and theatrically wipes her brow (in a joking manner). We hear her giggling and chatting up Bob, and she tells him "I just knew my A5 was not good there!"

    NOW it is time to re-cap the action, and discuss...

    PRE-FLOP:
    Tom McEvoy is in the BB posting 150
    Young Gun is in the SB, postin 75

    Lou open limps from middle postion.
    375 in pot.

    Next player, Monica, raises, making it 600 to go.
    975 in pot.

    Party Bob folds.
    We voted to CALL, holding AhTh.
    1575 in pot.

    Young Gun folds (33).
    Tom McEvoy folds (A9o).

    Lou CALLS.
    2025 in pot.

    FLOP: Ad 9h 3h

    Lou CHECKS.

    Monica C-Bets 1000

    We vote to CALL.
    3025 in pot.

    Lou CALLS.
    4025 in pot.

    Turn comes Td.

    Lou CHECKS.
    Monica CHECKS.

    We vote to CHECK.
    4025 in pot.

    RIVER: 5h

    Lou BETS 3000
    7025 in pot

    Monica FOLDS.

    We RAISE, making it 9500 to go.
    16525 in pot

    Lou goes ALL IN for 8150.
    24675 in pot.

    We call 1650.
    26325 in pot

    Lou Tables KQh
    We show down ATh.
    We win with the nut flush.

    (sorry about edits. I noticed that a bit of a descrepancy had slipped in, because I forgot to add in Lou's 450 call of the flop bet, after he limped for 150. When I configure the action, I do not track the pot size, because the variations in "exact" numbers would change things greatly. All I do is create a "range" of actions for a small raise, min raise to under 1/3rd, a medium small of 1/3rd to 1/2, a medium large of 1/2 to 2/3rds, then a large raise above 2/3rds pot. As such, I need to manually fill in the pot amounts, and this time I messed it up! The pot sizing is correct in the re-cap, and I do not think it effected our decisions on each step.)

    Let the discussions BEGIN!

    I have questions:

    1) Do you think we got the most value form this pot as we could have?
    2) If no, where might we have gotten more value, and how?
    3) Do you think we got "good value"?
    4) If we did not river the nut hand, how much do you think we may have won in total?
    5) Are there anythings you'd do DIFFERENTLY?
    Last edited by JDean; Thu Aug 04, 2011, 09:30 AM.
    Double Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    OK
    IF WE HAD BET THE TURN WOULD HE HAVE CALLED RAISED OR FOLDED
    AND ON THE RIVER IF HE HAD TEN OR JACK HIGH FLUSH WOULD HE HAVE CALLED THE LARGE RAISE OR WOULD HE HAVE CALLED A SMALL RAISE ???



    sometimes i laugh so hard tears run down my leg

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by hemetdennis View Post
      OK
      IF WE HAD BET THE TURN WOULD HE HAVE CALLED RAISED OR FOLDED
      AND ON THE RIVER IF HE HAD TEN OR JACK HIGH FLUSH WOULD HE HAVE CALLED THE LARGE RAISE OR WOULD HE HAVE CALLED A SMALL RAISE ???



      If we had bet too large on the turn, Lou would have folded.

      He would have called up to roughly 2/3rds pot bet on his flush draw and gut shot straight draw...

      that is what calling stations do.

      Since we did get max value from Lou, what do you think we might have done to get more value from MONICA?
      Double Bracelet Winner

      Comment


      • #4
        WELL I WANTED TO RAISE THE FLOP THAT WOULD HAVE GOTTEN MORE FROM HER



        sometimes i laugh so hard tears run down my leg

        Comment


        • #5
          I think discussing how we could have gotten more from a specific hand is a potentially harmful exercise. Just because a particular action would have yielded a greater result from a specific set of hands doesn't make it good, because we can never see those hands, only imaginary ranges.

          Also, I think that we definitely did not get max value from Lou. We got very lucky value from Lou. Had the river been any card besides a heart or a jack, we would not have gotten Lou's stack. Had the river been any card besides a heart, a jack, a queen, or a king, we would have gotten nothing. We technically sucked out here, because there were very few cards that would have gotten us any more money on the river. If Lou would have chased for a two-thirds pot bet on the turn, we should have made that bet. That would have been the most profitable line to take vs. Lou's range, imo.

          Comment


          • #6
            Thank you JD I enjoyed this exercise/learning, seeing other thought's/actions, I have lots to learn. It sort of reminds me of when i first stated playing/learning Chess when i was about 5 with my dad, there was no way of me learning(except Chess books, but its not same i think as actually playing live) when dad was away working( fishing so he could be away for weeks) etc, It may sound stupid but I used to play chess against myself learning different strategy's/angles that would make me think how i could beat myself lol, it helped heaps in my game as id always get thrashed(hes good player) by my dad on chess board, then when i was about 9/10 years old i finally beat him, and I'm sure that was reason why. I hope we can do more, if can.umbup: Thank you again
            Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Fri Aug 05, 2011, 02:26 AM. Reason: Edited
            3 Time Bracelet Winner


            Comment


            • #7
              I think yes actually we could have gotten a little bit more value out of monica with a small bet on the turn, but as we've seen, by the scenarios that did NOT happen that you posted, that's about all we were going to get from her.
              and with that small bet, we also saw that lou is capable of a semi bluff raise, and we would have been forced into a check call mode unless we rivered big.edit: oops misread the did NOT happen senerios where lou called and didn't bet till he hit his flush on the river.we DID get max value from lou obviously sinse we now have all his chips,(in this particular senerio) if cards had rolle differently then no probably not max value from lou ,and could have extracted a little more from monica with a smallish turn bet.

              I also think panicky is right that we weren't getting another dime out of lou without a very small number of cards hitting the river. if the river bricks we're.SOL
              Off to work.... To be continued.....
              OK... As per your questions...1) no 2) answer above 3)yes 4)to much river card dependant to know( if lou hit his K or Q we may have gotten him to call off a few more chips but not many) if it bricked not a dime more do we see. 5) I dont know that (I) would have done anything differently as all our actions were the ones I voted for. would we as a group have done things differently? we'll have to wait and see..

              and thanks JD for all the work you put in on this. and by all means yes let's do some more. very entertaining and educational I think. I would also like to hear your thoughts on those questions. also your thoughts on our thoughts on earlier threads....would also like to hear the thoughts of the other hand analyzers,(Dave and JWK) as I know we all respect their opinions too. and thanks for not piping in earlier as I think this might have skewed the votes here. Thnx again, stack em high! MT
              Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Aug 04, 2011, 05:56 PM. Reason: Keep having random thoughts lol ahhhh the perils of having a bit of a chaotic mind
              May the tinfoil protect you. MT

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
                I think discussing how we could have gotten more from a specific hand is a potentially harmful exercise. Just because a particular action would have yielded a greater result from a specific set of hands doesn't make it good, because we can never see those hands, only imaginary ranges.

                Also, I think that we definitely did not get max value from Lou. We got very lucky value from Lou. Had the river been any card besides a heart or a jack, we would not have gotten Lou's stack. Had the river been any card besides a heart, a jack, a queen, or a king, we would have gotten nothing. We technically sucked out here, because there were very few cards that would have gotten us any more money on the river. If Lou would have chased for a two-thirds pot bet on the turn, we should have made that bet. That would have been the most profitable line to take vs. Lou's range, imo.
                +1000, we really dropped the ball on maximizing value, but donked out with a lucky river.
                Head Live Trainer
                Check out my Videos

                4 Time Bracelet Winner



                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by mtnestegg View Post
                  and with that small bet, we also saw that lou is capable of a semi bluff raise,
                  How are you coming to this conclusion? Lou didn't take any aggressive action what so ever until he held a monster, the 2nd nuts. I guarantee 100% he would call the turn and never, raise. Ever.

                  Semi-bluffs aren't in a stations arsenal.
                  Head Live Trainer
                  Check out my Videos

                  4 Time Bracelet Winner



                  Comment


                  • #10
                    It has been a really worthwhile exercise JD. Thanks for all your hard work and effort

                    Is their any chance of this continuing? I am away until late on Sunday so I am hoping there will be a new one for next week. The differing views and approaches have gave me a lot of food for thought so thanks to everyone else that contributed as well

                    Cheers,

                    TC

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      This was definitely an interesting exercise. I really like opportunities like this to discuss strategy and the like. I also appreciate the effort JDean put in to this. Just as suggestions for any future installments, like HighTimes said, having the present board visible in each thread would be useful, as would stack size info (I kept checking back for those two pieces of info specifically). Also, since revealing results for choices not chosen gives away information that has the potential to skew the thought process for the remainder of the hand, it might be best to leave those passages a mystery, at least until the end of the exercise. Just my thoughts on how the exercise could be improved. Great job on this one. umbup:

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                        How are you coming to this conclusion? Lou didn't take any aggressive action what so ever until he held a monster, the 2nd nuts. I guarantee 100% he would call the turn and never, raise. Ever.

                        Semi-bluffs aren't in a stations arsenal.
                        if you will reread my post, you will see in my edit, that I misread 1 of j d's posts about one of the did NOT happen senerios and corrected it thereafter (probably should have erased it instead) sorry bout that...
                        May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Just want to be sure that JDEAN sees this post:

                          http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...d=1#post294702

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
                            This was definitely an interesting exercise. I really like opportunities like this to discuss strategy and the like. I also appreciate the effort JDean put in to this. Just as suggestions for any future installments, like HighTimes said, having the present board visible in each thread would be useful, as would stack size info (I kept checking back for those two pieces of info specifically). Also, since revealing results for choices not chosen gives away information that has the potential to skew the thought process for the remainder of the hand, it might be best to leave those passages a mystery, at least until the end of the exercise. Just my thoughts on how the exercise could be improved. Great job on this one. umbup:
                            + a whole bunch!! umbup:
                            May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
                              I think discussing how we could have gotten more from a specific hand is a potentially harmful exercise. Just because a particular action would have yielded a greater result from a specific set of hands doesn't make it good, because we can never see those hands, only imaginary ranges.

                              Also, I think that we definitely did not get max value from Lou. We got very lucky value from Lou. Had the river been any card besides a heart or a jack, we would not have gotten Lou's stack. Had the river been any card besides a heart, a jack, a queen, or a king, we would have gotten nothing. We technically sucked out here, because there were very few cards that would have gotten us any more money on the river. If Lou would have chased for a two-thirds pot bet on the turn, we should have made that bet. That would have been the most profitable line to take vs. Lou's range, imo.
                              I tend to agree with your points in the main Panicky...

                              1) Talking aobut getitng max value from a specifc hand, when that hand is KNOWN is pretty harmful. Because one hand that might call may not be a call for another hand. The failing in that came form (I think) the fact I revealed TOO MUCH info. Next time I think we should ONLY reveal info that you would have at the table, until the very end.

                              2) As I was setting up the variopus scenarioes for this hand, I was trying to get across the thought that extracting max value in a hand when facing 2 opponents is largely dependant upon getitng the most from BOTH.

                              Obviously on the riv, Lou is stacking to us if we have managed to keep him around (it was not going to be hugely difficult to keep him around though). So the "trick" lie in getting the max from Monica's top pair/weak kicker. But JUST as "obvious" is the fact we are only seeing that flush fill for us less than 35% of the time (since Lou had 2 hearts as well). So you do have GREAT points...

                              DELAYING our "value" in that pot HURTS our overall value a lot.

                              Our voted live was UBER PASSIVE (in my opinion), and really let Monica off the hook especially.

                              The thing that is REALLY good to note though Panicky...it is "easy" to over look how much value was lost in a hand when you stack a deep stacked opponent. If we had run into the EXACT same hand in real life, and if we stacked Lou, how many of us would even have a PASSING THOUGHT about how much we might have left on the table?

                              Realistically, I think we can conservatively say we "denied" ourselves at least 2500 to 4k from EACH player here. That is roughly 5k to 8k, or roughly 1/3rd to a bit over 1/2 of what we actually WON...and we "won" a pretty big pot.

                              that is DEFINATELY something to think aobut when you are reviewing your hands after playing...
                              Double Bracelet Winner

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