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Bubble .25/45

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  • Bubble .25/45

    I'm kind of looking for a table analysis along with hand analysis here. I started playing these in part to get more short-handed and final table experience on the cheap, and this is by far the most challenging final table I have experienced (so far). Interesting note: Fairplay was sitting out the entire time though you can't tell by the replayer. This allowed for alot of walks for elenka and gizas, that I was just not getting- Fairplay even got folded to once. Not complaining-it happens and I have benefited from sitters before, just not my turn this time. My bigger problem is the 3 huge stacks to my left. I have virtually no fold equity-at least one, if not all, of these guys are going to call me. I figure my best chance is to get into a SB vs BB heads-up with Biker. Then this hand presents itself -it is folded around to me in the SB.... According to pokerstove, my hand is a coinflip (though I didn't know it at the time) against a random hand-I figure he is calling with atc. What to do, what to do....

  • #2
    Well, you are the one who is going to have to supply reads for table analysis...we cannot do it because we do not have the info. But I CAN give you what my general thoughts would be here...

    What hand, or what siuation, could have been SO BAD that I would have folded my BB last hand, but I am not folding this now?

    In the SB I have an "M" of 1.9.
    This entails laying a FAT PRICE of over 2 to 1 for the BB to call me.
    Plus, BB has a pretty large stack, and doubling me represents "only" about a 9% "loss" to his stack.
    This all says your FOLD EQUITY is probably pretty low against most Micro Stakes palyers at any time, and it is probably somewhat low versus ANY player a good portion of the time; they "know" this is a decent stand spot for you (blind on blind), and since you are not going to be checked to very often you gotta shove wide here. Therefore they will probably call wide too in this spot too...

    With this said, I am NOT saying there are not "reasons" you might "let" yourself get this low...

    A) You took a "stack hit"
    B) You were just at a lower blind level (thus higher M for you), and could not find any stand spots due to bad hands and pre flop aggression ahead.
    C) There was big aggression on your BB, and you had a very poor hand
    D) The bubble is near, and since you are taking a "challenge", even a min cash means a lot to you.

    I AM saying that you folded your BB WITHOUT making your "stand" for SOME reason (or you did stand, and doubled, but had let yourself get MEGA SHORT before doing so!). What was that reason? Is that reason still operable? If not, then you must decide if you will see THIS HAND as your "best" hand before you are blinded and anted so low that even a double will not really "help" you, or if you are willing to gamble NOW on a hand that is quite likely BEHIND anything that will call you...

    Without knowing your "situation" more intimately, it is hard to say which is "better"...

    I CAN tell you how I approach these sorts of situations though...

    I think about "standing" long before I MUST do so...
    As my stack falls below 5M or so, I am really assessing my table dynamic.
    That assessment leads me to a judgement about how LIKELY I am to see "first in vigorish" before my stack has seen a severe drop in fold equity.
    With that thought, I then start to configure in my mind the sorts of hands I "need" to feel comfortable exercising FIV, AND what hands I would feel comfortable standing on over "action" if I cannot see FIV.
    As soon as I see a "spot", with the "right hand" and "right action", I go for it...ASAP.

    If I do NOT see any of those "spots", then I do not let myself fall below 3M before I LOWER my requirements.
    As I hit 3M, I identify a "critical orbit" for myself, and will "go" on the BEST HAND I am likely to see in that matter action.
    That might mean shoving a 78s or T9s into 2 limpers and a raise 9because I would get a triple up+), it might be shoving over an open raiser with something like ATo, or some other "ugh" type situation...but I WILL be "going".
    If I do not see ANY hands or situations on the entire orbit, then I "go" on my matter what.
    I am simply too short to wait any longer, and it is true that any 2 cards CAN win.

    So I'd ask you this: "Why didn't you go on your BB"?
    If you did not go on your BB, then you've "paid" a lot of the stack depleting price that this orbit will cost you.
    Sure, your SB is still out there, but you DO have "enough" to see that entire orbit without going "bust".
    Do you REALLY "need" to take a bare 50/50 hand in NOW, when you have about that SAME 50/50 chance to see a BETTER hand on the next deal?

    It all boils down to this: If you couldn;t feel short enough to stand in the BB, why do you suddenly feel so short you HAVE to stand in the SB?

    Answer that, and you should have your answer about what to do.
    Double Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Thanks for that.
      I am replaying tourneys in the universal replayer starting with those in which I found myself in sticky situations at the end.
      I think this game was one of "me" psychologically-I realized that after taking on the challenge I had started playing in fear, stopped playing to win and just trying to eke my way to a min-cash.
      I've done much better since I returned to "no fear" mode.
      My own mind can be much more devastating to my play than 1000 bad players sucking out with crap hands.
      Luckily, that is something I do have the power to change.
      Onward and upward!



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