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Good or bad lay down?

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  • Good or bad lay down?

    This was in a $1.10 tourney I played in 2 days ago the villain had chipped up in what was literally the first hand (taking him to 9000) he hadn't really been doing much since taking the odd pot here and there he had made a few loose plays but nothing too extravagant pre-flop, then this happens.....
    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    It was a tough lay down for me but i figure he must be on a monster and is wanting for a call cause it didn't really seem worth stealing the blinds at this point. Is this a good fold or a missed chance to chip up? I've had a bit of time to think about it now and I still stand by my decision i just don't see that he could be holding trash and making a move like this. Any input and advice from more experience players would be much appreciated
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  • #2
    This is really early in the tourney but the stacks at the table are enormous??? I do not know how many players were entered in the tourney but if I was at this table and holding Js I am calling. He might have a monster or he might have air but either way I am calling because finishing at this point means I lose 1.10$, but if I win the hand I am in a position to push on for the tournament.

    TC

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    • #3
      Players who do this are never bluffing, in my experience. However, people willing to shove like this often have a mistaken idea of what constitutes a value shove. You could see hands as weak as 22 or AJ, but I would just assume this is the top of his range (JJ+ and AK or QQ+ and AK), and only calling with KK and AA is profitable against either of those ranges. If the guy has shown himself to be shove-happy (like if he open shoved 75o on the hand where he chipped up), then expand your calling range to suit his shoving range. You should just assume the guy has a normal range unless he shows otherwise, though.

      Fold JJ.
      Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Jul 19, 2011, 03:09 AM.

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      • #4
        In my limited experience, huge overbets represent fear and bad poker ability. Why shove your stack into such a small pot otherwise? You want to get value from your big hands and if it is really big you do not want to scare everyone off and just win the blinds...

        I shove here.

        TC

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        • #5
          You're trying to exploit somebody without any information to show that they're weak, TC. People usually play straightforwardly, and bluffing here is not straightforward. Calling with JJ is a bad play. Calling with QQ is close, but still bad imo.

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          • #6
            TC the stacks aren't that big are they? It was a 3000 starting stack and 2 players on the table with 9000+ me with around 5000 and the rest around 3000 I thought my stack was about average for this level in the tournament but i am very new to these tourneys so not too sure Also just checked the tourney info in my email and there was 2955 entrants, I ended up in 241st place (not too bad for my first ever PS game). I do understand why you would call TC, but I was just so sure he had me beat he hadn't made any pre-flop move like this apart from the call in the first hand were he had AJs. Panicky now you know that he called the first hand all in with AJs does this change your opinion? I still think he would be on the range you gave even given this call Also TC i think that maybe he knows that most people will see this play as one of experience and a little scared and is trying to use that to his advantage or is this a bit too thought out for a $1.10 game lol?
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            • #7
              From my past experience with the kind of player who will 3 bet jam 180 bb's pre flop he is usually going to be
              A). An ATC shove monkey who is pushing all kinds of trash.
              or
              B). A "value shover" who is only pushing hands he views as strong.

              If he is an A type player then I'm calling for sure.

              BUT, from your description of him, I would be inclined to think he is a B type player, shoving the hands he views as strong for value. The key to playing against this type is keen observation to define the range of hands he views as strong enough to shove for value. At this point in the tournament you have not defined his range so your really forced to guess as to what his range is. I think hes probably shoving something like "88+,AQs+,KQs,AQo+" which may or may not be accurate, but that's my guess.

              JJ has 52.926% equity vs this range.

              But your not guaranteed to be heads up for a coin flip, there are still 3 players behind us to act, and one of them raised UTG. The fact we don't have a read and the pot was raised UTG and then 3 bet shoved, makes me fold this. But if I were last to act and were guaranteed a heads up pot Id be more inclined to call.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Croyd93 View Post
                Panicky now you know that he called the first hand all in with AJs does this change your opinion?
                There is a second complicating factor that nobody has considered yet. The opener might still have AA, KK, or QQ. That will only happen about one time in 74 if they have a random hand, but they did open in early position. If they're opening the top 10% of hands, you're getting snapped off one time in 7 that you make this call, which lowers your calling expectation value considerably.

                I still say fold until you know this guy is a maniac, but it's looking much closer to a call considering he seems to think AJ is the nuts.
                Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Jul 19, 2011, 03:46 AM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Croyd93 View Post
                  TC the stacks aren't that big are they? It was a 3000 starting stack and 2 players on the table with 9000+ me with around 5000 and the rest around 3000 I thought my stack was about average for this level in the tournament but i am very new to these tourneys so not too sure Also just checked the tourney info in my email and there was 2955 entrants, I ended up in 241st place (not too bad for my first ever PS game). I do understand why you would call TC, but I was just so sure he had me beat he hadn't made any pre-flop move like this apart from the call in the first hand were he had AJs. Panicky now you know that he called the first hand all in with AJs does this change your opinion? I still think he would be on the range you gave even given this call Also TC i think that maybe he knows that most people will see this play as one of experience and a little scared and is trying to use that to his advantage or is this a bit too thought out for a $1.10 game lol?
                  Oops thinking PSO rather than MTT. Good point! I am still inclined to call though as my goal is to win but I am ostensibly low ring cash rather than MTT so it is probably the totally wrong play. Congrats on your finish, well played.

                  TC

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                  • #10
                    I've played a number of those 1.10 mtt's when we still could.
                    Shoving AJs the first hand folding most others, tells me that they won't play after the flop poker and probably isn't a strong enough player to be in pots after the flop.
                    Personally, I'd probably muck them this early in the tourney... but later in one, I'm calling (when I'd have less BB's in my stack).
                    I'd put them on suited broadway ace or pkt pair. Most likely, you're probably in a coin flip with them and behind (your pair to their 2 suited overcards).

                    I think you can find a bit better situation this early to get your chips into and like your fold.
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                    • #11
                      well in these micro crapshoot mtts im definantly calling there, but like in a much bigger buy in tourny that is definantly a spot where you can fold........

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