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Great Hands #15 - Behind the Poker Face - Week 2, Hand 7, Davis vs Williams. 22 vs TT

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  • Great Hands #15 - Behind the Poker Face - Week 2, Hand 7, Davis vs Williams. 22 vs TT

    Great Hands #15 - Behind the Poker Face - Week 2, Hand 7 - Davis vs Williams. 22 vs TT

    Watch video here.

    Would you have acted the same way? What would you have done differently? Share your thoughts and feedback via this forum discussion about this hand.

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  • #2
    UTG, the LC gets a tiny pp, and makes a pretty standard raise.
    Williams is the BB, and sees TT.

    He can re-pop, but a lot of pro's believe that an amateur playing above his head will be "tight".
    Versus a tight range, TT definately likes a smaller pot, since it is rarely better than a race, and can be MUCH WORSE.

    The LC is not massively "out of line" by raising 22 either, since open limps are not usually ideal.
    I like his raise if he is entering here at all.

    It comes 445, with 2 clubs.
    If Williams is "right", and the LC is on a very tight range, this board does NOT figure to have hit him very often. Of course if the LC is really tight, then he may be ahead WITHOUT this hitting him too!

    Either way, Williams is probably seeing AK type hands FOLD here if he leads, and may see JJ+ hands RAISE, so there is really no "sense" leading when the LC will tend to put some value in on a C-Bet.

    It isn't really a "slow play", but rather more a pot control move, that will yeild more info on the TURN, based on if the LC barrells twice.

    I think the LC's bet of 2100 into the 3200 pot is a bit large tbh...

    As the announcer states, this isn't a "bad" board for 22, but versus the nominally "most likely to stack off" player at the table, on this depth of money a professional is going to have a lot of reason to call that bet with a flush draw. I think a half pot bet here or around 1500 to 1800 is going to get the LC the sorts of folds he wants/needs, and is not going to "expose" him as much if Willaims is on better or a very strong draw.

    (NOTE: Sure, LC is probably going to be conservative about stacking off because of the game type he is in. But if you consider his entries are probably tighter as a result of this, the fact he is an "amateur" makes it more likely he will make the "mistake" of over valuing a big pre-flop hand, post flop...see?)

    The Kc gives Williams worry that he may have fallen behind, and you see a "quick check".
    I do not think he is going to release to a bet here a whole lot of the time though, because the Kc may be a "scare card" for LC, or a further scare card might come on the river to worry LC.

    The point is moot though, because the LC stays pretty ABC and checks with a board under pair, and no club.

    While the K may have cause Williams to fall behind, he has also picked up a re-draw. If he does have LC on a tight range, his hand still has calling value, but the betting value is pretty shrunken now. I like his check.

    LC took his shot, and the C-Bet didn't work. If this were HIS money, I would say that barrelling again for about the same amount as a % of the pot he did on the flop (~2/3rds) is likely to have +eV for his 22 hand, simply because Williams will have seen 2 strong bets, and a VERY bad card for him appearing ("bad" in terms of a tight player's range). But it is not the LC's own cash...

    Because the LC must only win more than opposing LC's, this is a "wierd" cash game set up for him, where "close edge" situations like leveraging the fold equity in this spot is not going to be "good" all the time in the overall STRUCTURE of the event. Afterall, he is probably only folding out clean misses and 0 club hands held by Williams a lot of the time, and he IS "ahead" of those now. The "risk" of Williams holding the exact hand he does hold, and NOT folding, is just too great for the LC to really risk it in this structure.

    So I do not mind his check at all with those concerns...


    LC hits the prfect card for him!

    Not only goes it make him boat, but it also puts the 4th club out, so Williams is probably "obligated" to call if he holds the Ac or Qc even.
    With that thought, LC bets pretty big.

    6k into a 7200 pot is not BAD though, in my opinion...

    Dis-agree with the announcer who says, "A big bet on the river, and Williams is going to find it pretty tough to call with just a Tc"...FAH!

    That size bet is nice BECAUSE it is bigger than it "should be" if the LC is really "strong". No matter what the "typical" LC might do here, there IS a chance one is going to bluff or over-value his hand. That 6k bet into a 7200 pot looks exactly like someone with 88 and the 8c who despretely WANTS a bigger c to "go away".

    The fact is, LC is either going to see Williams with a big enough hand to call a hallf pot bet (the more "normal bet"), or he isn't. If Williams has enough to call a half pot bet, he may feel he has enough to call this size bet. Since it is really "either/or", why NOT try to appear "weak" and get that extra value in?

    The only problem is that the LC blows it badly...

    While Williams is contemplating, LC makes a joking comment.

    At a table like this, your typical amateur is NOT going to feel entirely "comfortable" if he is bluffing, and will probably "tense up", and go very very quiet. He isn't making a light hearted Joke, in a very relaxed voice when playing with a year's salary in front of him very often!

    That's all the info Williams needs to determine it is highly un-likely his Tc is best...and he mucks.

    Big mistake by LC...

    (Note: I stopped tape before Williams explains his hand play. Very interesting break down)
    Last edited by JDean; Tue Jul 12, 2011, 06:24 PM.
    Double Bracelet Winner



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