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winning but a little nervous about last call

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  • winning but a little nervous about last call

    i called but was is smart??

    PokerStarsspel #64325886115: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 09/07/2011 10:34:41 CET [09/07/2011 4:34:41 ET]
    Tafel 'Nerthus III' 9-max Plaats #9 is de button
    Plaats 1: Mustang67CG ($8.74 in chips)
    Plaats 2: russianbam ($4.68 in chips)
    Plaats 3: FREETHOR ($7.45 in chips)
    Plaats 4: huameizheng ($13.18 in chips)
    Plaats 5: hollandia77 ($11.93 in chips)
    Plaats 6: Konoplinho ($10.79 in chips)
    Plaats 7: 77wopke77 ($10.11 in chips)
    Plaats 8: darek8888 ($9.35 in chips)
    Plaats 9: HEBECTA ($10 in chips)
    Mustang67CG: zet small blind $0.05
    russianbam: zet big blind $0.10
    Gedeeld aan 77wopke77 [Ah Kh]
    FREETHOR: foldt
    huameizheng: foldt
    hollandia77: callt $0.10
    Konoplinho: foldt
    77wopke77: raiset $0.30 naar $0.40
    darek8888: foldt
    HEBECTA: foldt
    Mustang67CG: foldt
    russianbam: foldt
    hollandia77: callt $0.30
    *** FLOP *** [Td As Ac]
    hollandia77: checkt
    77wopke77: bet $0.45
    hollandia77: callt $0.45
    *** TURN *** [Td As Ac] [9d]
    hollandia77: checkt
    77wopke77: bet $0.88
    hollandia77: raiset $0.88 naar $1.76
    77wopke77: callt $0.88
    *** RIVER *** [Td As Ac 9d] [Qs]
    hollandia77: bet $2
    77wopke77: callt $2
    *** SHOWDOWN ***
    hollandia77: toont [2d Ad] (three of a kind, Azen)
    77wopke77: toont [Ah Kh] (three of a kind, Azen - Koning kicker)
    77wopke77 won $8.92 van pot
    *** SAMENVATTING ***
    Totale pot $9.37 | Rake $0.45
    Board [Td As Ac 9d Qs]
    Plaats 1: Mustang67CG (small blind) foldde voor de Flop
    Plaats 2: russianbam (big blind) foldde voor de Flop
    Plaats 3: FREETHOR foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)
    Plaats 4: huameizheng foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)
    Plaats 5: hollandia77 toonde [2d Ad] en verloor met three of a kind, Azen
    Plaats 6: Konoplinho foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)
    Plaats 7: 77wopke77 toonde [Ah Kh] en won ($8.92) met three of a kind, Azen
    Plaats 8: darek8888 foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)
    Plaats 9: HEBECTA (button) foldde voor de Flop (bette niet)

  • #2
    The quick answer is yes. The guy minraised you one time, then bet less than half the pot on the river. Since you were closing the action with the call on the river, there were no more opportunities for your opponent to bet at you, so you got to see a showdown for pretty cheap (you only has to have the best hand roughly 2 times out of 7 for the call to be profitable, because of how little was bet). Had the villain bet the size of the pot on the river, I think it would be a crying call, and had they shoved the river, I think it would be a somewhat easy fold, because they would probably never do that without a full house.

    Another way to look at the hand is by ranging the villain. What hands would he play this way? The only hands that beat you when he started raising you are AT, A9, TT, and 99. Do you think that he'd play any of these hands this way? AT and A9 make sense for very passive opponents, but they represent 12 hands out of 1225 possible holdings that the guy could have. If he would make this play with any combo of bare trips, then you actually should have raised (something you could take note of if you play this person again).
    Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sat Jul 09, 2011, 05:06 PM.


    • #3
      Yes, it was the correct move to call. If the river was a diamond, then it may be different, but I agree with Panicky. If they had you beat, then they should have bet more on the river.

      6 Time Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Yes, you are correct to call here.

        The limper here is going to be pretty wide, because he did not have "faith" enough in his hand to raise pre-flop. your hand was completely valid as a raising hand over a limper, and you did so.

        Flop comes pretty good for you, as the AAT board trips you.
        Your opponent checks, you lead for 45c which is just a bit under half pot (47%).
        With no real straight draws or flush draws here, that bet is nicely sized to keep the pot semi smallish in case you ARE beat, but is also big enough to get a decent amount of value in.

        You really do not want to "rush" value in here, simply because you "could" do it if the opponent has an Ace. You really want calls from the variety of Ts, and that villian is very unlikely to fold a weaker Ace, so gradually building your value will keep him around, plus; since he isn't folding that Ace no matter WHAT you bet (most often at least), if this is not your "lucky day", he WILL be around to hit his kicker...see? Plus, ther eis the chance he will be on AT or TT here.

        Turn comes a 9, putting a flush DRAW up there possibly, but filling no draws.
        Your opponent checks, you bet 88c (another 47% bet), and he min check raises you.

        Ok, this is a real "gut check" point for you.
        In case you haven't seen this before, check out something on "The Baluga Theorem":

        I think this is applicable for this situation, even though you do NOT hold a 1 pair hand, simply because check/raises at micro stakes so rarely indicate weakness. The things I'd evaluate in the current situation are:

        1) Have I seen this player limp the big end of the middle pp (99/TT) from MP? If so, how often?
        2) How often have I seen this player calling raising with weak Aces like AT/A9?
        3) Will he tend to "over value" weak kickers?
        4) Will he semi-bluff draws?
        5) Does he think I will bet this flop without an Ace? Is he even considering what I might have here?
        6) What hand strength would he consider "strong enough" for a check/raise?
        7) Does a min raise by him mean excessive STRENGTH, or is it a sign of some un-surety?

        I'll be honest, because I hold top trips and have at least 3 outs versus any possible hand here, for me his min check/raise is going to result in a CALL a lot more often than I'll fold here, but if I did have indcations after considering ALL those questions that he is ahead, I could fold here...

        So I do like your flat call, and think a raise is a bit too risky.

        River comes a Qs, and no likely draws fill here (if this guy stuck around on KJ, then pat him on the head and say gh! You WILL get his chips later!). So that means unless your opponent holds AQ then your situation has not changed at all.

        The pot is now $5.37.
        Villain now leads for a nicely sized "value bet" of $2.00.
        That bet is honestly more 'scary" to me than an all-in...

        I honestly believe that since you must call only $2.00 for the chance to win $7.37 (3.7 to 1), and since you only have to be "right" in calling about 22% of the time to break even, based on the strength of your hand you pretty much HAVE to call. Your hand was either "ahead" the whole way, and probably still is, or you fell behind (or were never ahead)...

        So I do like your call, and it is a nice pot to rake. Good job.

        Fact is though, based on what I've seen here, if you have a VPiP at anything above 20%, I have a feeling you are against a VERY "aware" player.

        This is a guy who took a calculated "shot" at your raise holding a suited Ace, and when he flopped trips, he did NOT "over-commit" to the hand.

        Only when he picked up the diamond re-draw did he "test" the value of his Ace via the check/raise, and when he did so he did it in a very controlled manner as well (personally, I do NOT "like" the min raise by him a whole lot, and would have prefered to raise at least 1.5 to 2 times your bet, but that is a personal choice really).

        When he did not hit his re-draw, he still led his Ace, again in a VERY controlled manner. It seems he 'recognizes" what hands he might get to fold, and that his $2.00 will be perceived a lot of the time as a "value bet". This serves to include hands like A7/A8 that are going to CHOP with him a lot of the time in the potential fold out range. Keep in mind, his A2 may SEEM weak here, but the ONLY hands which beat him are the made boats, and AJ or AK...All other aces are chopping.

        So I think you definately ran into a good solid palyer, and one you should watch out for. I do NOT think you made a single "mistake" in the hand, and I do not necessarily say this player is "better" than you are, but when there is so much dead money to be won off the fish, why seek to tangle with a guy who is aware like this?

        Make a note to be careful against him in the future.

        This was a very nice hand to post...thanks!
        Last edited by JDean; Sat Jul 09, 2011, 09:03 PM.
        Double Bracelet Winner


        • #5
          lol yeah its a dead easy call, im surprised you dont raise the river for value?? wierd ahh nh



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