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$2.20 MTT - AA with a weird flop - is this just a bad beat?

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  • $2.20 MTT - AA with a weird flop - is this just a bad beat?

    I'm wondering if there's any way to get off this hand without going broke frankly? It was the end of a $2.20 for me last night. Of course, whenever you get pocket A's, it's worth a pre-flop raise. I went with a double raise so as not to scare people out of the pot. I certainly could have bet harder pre-flop, but crushing a small pot pre-flop isn't really the best way to maximize value with AA IMO. With 2 callers, there's a decent chance for a big pot, but also my investment is small enough to get off if the flop goes horribly wrong. Which, of course, it pretty much does. The only saving grace is that I'm not really putting either of the others on diamonds at this point, and I have the diamond A in my pair. At this point, I'm thinking even if he's hit the trips with a pair of something, 4BB with the nut flush draw and an overpair seemed a reasonable call. Although I didn't know he had trips at the time, it seems pretty clear I'd have been called if I raised the flop, and I'm still thinking that the flop could have put me in HUGE trouble. Calling rather than raising when I'm behind seemed the best bet there. The turn goes perfectly. The diamond comes up and I have the nut flush. With no pairs on board, the only REAL thing I'm worried about is the straight flush, and that seems pretty unlikely at this point. When he goes all-in, I'm pretty sure he's trying to protect a set (as it turns out, the right answer) or he has a flush that he wants to protect. Seems a "no-brainer" to call at that point, even for all my stack. And when the cards flip, it seems like exactly the right choice. Of course, I drown in the river when the 8 comes up as he hits the FH. Obviously, if he's got trips, then thats always a possibility, but it's a 3 outer on the river. I always hate to brand hands as bad beats, and I should say that, in the other seat, I might well have played the hand similarly. The all-in with trips when there are 4 flush cars on the board seems reckless to me, but anyone with a lower D than the A is likely to think VERY seriously about the call there, so a hard bet probably is the right call on the turn. Basically, my question is ... is there ANY way to get off this hand without going broke on the river? It really seems to me like there's no place I could have folded without passing a REALLY strong hand. Certainly the flop left me behind, but the nut flush draw there, with the over-pair, just seems TOO strong to pass for 4BB. Once the flush turned, there's simply no way anyone is folding in that position is there? Comments are welcome lol ...
    Double Bracelet Winner


  • #2
    Raise to 180-200 preflop. You want to isolate the raiser. He should have a pretty good hand that wants to play with you. Plus, you're out of position, and honestly even aces out of position isn't hugely profitable.

    How do you not bet that flop???? Or if you're gonna check, at least check-raise. (and with the nut flush draw I honestly don't care that he could have a set).

    And then you check the turn? On the turn you have the nuts. You want all the money in the middle. No river can change that.

    You played this wayyyy passive. Now if you know that this player is really aggressive and will do your betting for you it's defensible, but you didn't make one bet postflop.


    Now on to your story...

    Which, of course, it pretty much does. The only saving grace is that I'm not really putting either of the others on diamonds at this point
    ,

    You're first to act. How can you put anyone on anything??? Their ranges at this point are exactly the same as they were preflop. This is why position is so important. You have no info on how this flop hits your opponent until after they act.

    At this point, I'm thinking even if he's hit the trips with a pair of something, 4BB with the nut flush draw and an overpair seemed a reasonable call. Although I didn't know he had trips at the time, it seems pretty clear I'd have been called if I raised the flop, and I'm still thinking that the flop could have put me in HUGE trouble. Calling rather than raising when I'm behind seemed the best bet there.
    Think of the bet in terms of pot size, not BBs. Then you can consider the pot odds you're getting. Also, you have the ace of diamonds, that's huge. Even against a set you have 2 aces and 9 diamonds as outs. That's 11 outs. And against a flush you have 8 outs which also isn't terrible.


    The turn goes perfectly. The diamond comes up and I have the nut flush. With no pairs on board, the only REAL thing I'm worried about is the straight flush, and that seems pretty unlikely at this point. When he goes all-in, I'm pretty sure he's trying to protect a set (as it turns out, the right answer) or he has a flush that he wants to protect. Seems a "no-brainer" to call at that point, even for all my stack. And when the cards flip, it seems like exactly the right choice.
    How can you "protect a set" with four diamonds on the board?? Yeah, you have the nut flush, no brainer call obviously.

    Of course, I drown in the river when the 8 comes up as he hits the FH. Obviously, if he's got trips, then thats always a possibility, but it's a 3 outer on the river.
    3 outer? Any 3, 9, J, or 8 beats your flush. That's 1+3+3+3=10 outs.

    I always hate to brand hands as bad beats, and I should say that, in the other seat, I might well have played the hand similarly. The all-in with trips when there are 4 flush cars on the board seems reckless to me, but anyone with a lower D than the A is likely to think VERY seriously about the call there, so a hard bet probably is the right call on the turn.
    Yeah, he could be semibluffing, trying to get you off a small made flush.

    Basically, my question is ... is there ANY way to get off this hand without going broke on the river? It really seems to me like there's no place I could have folded without passing a REALLY strong hand. Certainly the flop left me behind, but the nut flush draw there, with the over-pair, just seems TOO strong to pass for 4BB. Once the flush turned, there's simply no way anyone is folding in that position is there?
    Why would you WANT to??? No one with a brain is folding the best hand here on purpose. You have the nut flush. This is only the 3rd nuts, but QT and T7 diamonds are pretty unlikely here. So you lost a hand when you were ahead, it happens. This is just a little suckout. Not even a bad beat. You have to learn to not be so results-oriented if you're playing poker.
    Last edited by oriholic; Fri Jun 10, 2011, 10:37 PM.
    4 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Passive Play

      Thanks for the analysis ... it's very insightful. I should have mentioned previous aggressive play by the other player ... the passivity was a response to that here.

      Other than passivity, it seems you think I played the hand correctly. Good point on his outs at the end, but what I really was after was "Why would you WANT to??? No one with a brain is folding the best hand here on purpose." Just wanted to make sure that my assessment at that point was "correct" and that helps me recognize the process as right even when the results are wrong lol.

      Thanks for the quick reply.
      Double Bracelet Winner

      Comment


      • #4
        with AA that early you really need to raise to 200-250 or so preflop.

        Also, with the overpair and nut flush draw, you have to bet the flop (I'd bet at least what I raised preflop). If they push back, then it's a call... but you need to be the first to act.

        Turn: gotta bet the nut flush. You have the nuts as of this point and need to bet. (if you had made a decent-sized bet on the flop, then I'm shoving the turn)

        River: yes, you got a bad break... those will happen (I had AA blow up on me on the river in a wsop circuit a couple months ago... it happens).

        The thing you need to learn from it is to not be too passive. If the flop was total air, then maybe check it OR the turn... but with a board like that, you need to be betting first... not reacting to someone else's bets.
        I've played that $2.20 tourney alot in the past and if you want to get any table respect at all in it, you need to be aggressive when you get a premium hand.
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


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