PokerStars homepage
  • If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

$109 Sunday Kickoff - Blind-on-Blind, 41BB Effective, 3Bet Shove by Active Player

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • $109 Sunday Kickoff - Blind-on-Blind, 41BB Effective, 3Bet Shove by Active Player

    At this stage in the tournament, I had a little over an average stack. About a third of the field had been eliminated. Over 14 hands, the villain was running 29/29/40. What would you have done?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 109 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds 15 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    CO (t6340)
    Button (t4440)
    Panicky (SB) (t7770)
    BB (t6165)
    UTG (t4464)
    UTG+1 (t8705)
    MP1 (t9929)
    MP2 (t5461)

    Preflop: Panicky is SB with 6, 6
    6 folds, Panicky bets t375, BB raises to t6150 (All-In), Panicky ???

  • #2
    ??

    Villain is obv. pretty loose- yet even if he is making a move- at best you are racing against atleast 1 overcard- probably 2- i dont think im putting what is essentially my tourney life on the line with 66 there- so i fold and wait for him to do same again - when i have a premium hand-- 10 10+....
    Last edited by monkeyskunk4; Mon Jun 06, 2011, 03:42 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      I would do the same as monkeyskunk4. Pocket 6 are not strong enough for going all-in against an active player and wait for a better hand.

      Comment


      • #4
        I think it's too early to call a shove with a low pair. You may be ahead, but are probably dominated by an overpair or at least are in a race against a big A.

        With that many BB's left in your stack, you can find a better situation to get your chips into.

        Later in a tourney when you don't have so many BB's left, if you think they have 2 overcards, it's ok to play it... but I think it's too early to put that many BB's at risk on at best a coin-flip.
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


        Comment


        • #5
          He probably put you on a steal.Jammed on you and put you to the test.Folding is the right thing at this point.
          Personally I would limp in here,and call a raise of up to 3BB and play fit or fold on the flop.

          Comment


          • #6
            First off, here are the thoughts I had in my head at the time:

            66 is too weak to fold here. I also think it's too weak to limp. On 50BB, I'm opening any pocket pair from any position, under most circumstances. I'm constantly looking for +EV ways to add chips to my stack, because I think it's the only way to ever set myself up to have a good run at the top of the leaderboard. In order to add those chips to my stack, I constantly need to be putting them at risk. Nobody's going to fold their chips to me if I don't bet, and nobody is going to make bad calls and raises if I don't bet either. So, that's why I opened.

            As soon as I opened, I took a closer look at the villain's stats. This was the first time he and I had been heads-up, and I had noticed that he had been very active at the table up to this point, even in multi-way pots. I hadn't realized that he had 29/29/40 stats, though. When I saw them, I thought to myself, this guy's never folding here. I was pretty certain that he was raising me most of the time. When I thought for a second about what he might raise me with, I decided that Ax, Kx, probably Q2s+, and all pocket pairs would raise me here. He might actually jam me with ATC. Against that range, I'll never have more than 65% equity, but I will always be a favourite to win the hand. By that logic, folding is never the highest EV play. When he jammed me, I actually snap-called.

            Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
            You may be ahead, but are probably dominated by an overpair or at least are in a race against a big A. With that many BB's left in your stack, you can find a better situation to get your chips into.
            Given that we were heads-up, the statement that I was probably against a higher ace or pair would only be true against a nit. This guy was not a nit. This is a very scared money assumption to make against somebody with 29/29/40 stats. Granted, my sample size is small and these may not be his true stats, but they're highly suggestive that this guy will be jamming me wide.

            Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
            but I think it's too early to put that many BB's at risk on at best a coin-flip.
            This is one of the reasons that I posted this hand. I don't know if this is a theoretically sound assumption, but I've heard that taking marginal +EV plays for all of one's chips when not in the late stages is a questionable practice. If there's a theoretical reason for this, I'd like to know it.

            Originally posted by brkn80 View Post
            Personally I would limp in here,and call a raise of up to 3BB and play fit or fold on the flop.
            I think that heads-up play with a pocket pair requires more aggression than that. The villain will have a hand that either flips with me, or is better than mine, roughly 37% of the time. I'll be the one with the EV edge over 96% of the time. I can see an arguement for wanting to keep the pot small, because this guy is crazy, but he should be folding here, or losing small pots here, a lot of the time. I don't think I should have to fold a premium heads-up hand just to avoid playing a big pot.

            That basically sums up my thoughts for this hand. I still think calling was the correct play, at least with respect to chip EV. But I still think it was questionable. Am I'm not totally comfortable with some of the theoretical concepts involved (e.g. the soundness of getting 41BB in preflop on a non-lock hand). If anyone sees holes in my arguement, please point them out.

            Comment


            • #7
              ??

              No ill will intended here PP- yet- i fail to see the logic in calling in this spot-- yet folding aces on a J hi board in the other thread- makes no sense to me at all--absolutely none-

              in one instance - you are calling for what is essentially your tourney life- on at best a coin flip- and in the other- you are folding when most likely ahead in a cash game- for a really nice pot???????????????
              Last edited by monkeyskunk4; Mon Jun 06, 2011, 08:44 PM.

              Comment


              • #8
                Just my 2 cents Panicky I think that your bet was to small, a 2.5 bet tells me, he just wants to see the flop, so I'll scare him away by going all in. I would of made a bigger bet, about 7x would scare him away or he would call, but if he goes all in then I fold. On his all in, ask yourself, would I of made an all in bet instead of the $350, if not, than why now and if yes than why not earlier But like the others have said, after the initial bet and the all in, I would of folded, still to early in the tournament umbup:umbup:

                Comment


                • #9
                  This is a fold for me tbh.

                  Now, I will say if the guy is shoving any 2, then folding would be horrible and it's a call. You're almost a 2-1 favorite over a range of any 2 and that is way too big an edge to pass up. I'm not good enough to pass up that big an edge.

                  But my quibble Panicky is with the ranging. 14 hands is meaningless. The guy has opened for a raise 4 out of 14 times, that isn't conclusive enough to tell you anything. He's 3b pre 40% which over this sample size is probably 2 times out of 5 opportunities. Initial impressions are that he's a bit LAGgy, but the sample size is small enough that we need to take that with a large grain of salt.

                  There is absolutely no way he's shoving any 2. If you assign him a 30% range you're almost a dead even coin flip. 20% and you're an equity underdog. And in this structure which (I think) is a pretty good tournament structure, I'm not looking to stack off this deep on a small dog coinflip.

                  Also, the 2 times that he 3b an open raiser, was it an overbet shove? We just don't have any evidence that he's making this play wide. In fact most weaker players do stupid overbets like this with good hands that are strong enough to 3b but they don't want to have to play post flop like AK, 99-JJ. Against that type of range you're almost a 2-1 dog.

                  So ultimately I don't like the call, but I think your conceptualization is good, it's a disagreement over ranging.

                  Dave
                  Head Live Trainer
                  Check out my Videos

                  4 Time Bracelet Winner



                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Very good advice Sandtrap,

                    I know a lot go for this 2.25 raise carry on, but if you are the small blind with only the big blind to act I feel a higher raise or shove is the right move.

                    TC

                    I would not be playing the 6s either btw

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Thanks for the additional comments, guys. In response to Dave, this was his first overbet shove, unless I missed one (pretty sure I would have noticed that). I know 14 hands is a weak sample, but even over 14 hands, players rarely show the level of activity that this guy did. These were the makings of semi-LAG getting hit with the deck-type stats, or maniac stats. I can't argue that trying to exploit him based on his apparent 3betting range is risky because I really don't have a lot of info yet, but there were two extra reasons that made me inclined to call:

                      1) This was his first heads-up 3bet. The rest were in multi-way pots, which made his likelihood to 3bet here way more likely. If he's willing to fight with a group, he's definitely going to throw punches at only one opponent who is OOP with a wide opening range.

                      2) He overbet-shoved. I actually took this as a sign of weakness, because it told me that he didn't want to think about the hand anymore. There is no reason whatsoever to 3bet shove the top of his range here, unless he is leveling me. It's such a non-standard play, that from a guy who is active to begin with, it looks like a weak shove. Edit: Saying that 99-JJ, AK-type hands would do this makes sense, but heads-up, I assumed that his range was significantly wider than that, i.e. as low as 22 and a whole lot of unpaired cards.

                      Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                      On his all in, ask yourself, would I of made an all in bet instead of the $350, if not, than why now and if yes than why not earlier
                      I found this comment very interesting, because the answer is technically yes. I believe that open shoving 66 on my SB would have been an equilibrium play. The reason I didn't was because I think I would have folded out worse hands that might give me action, and opening for a regular amount would have more value.
                      Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Jun 07, 2011, 03:31 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I think I know what you're getting at - like, the very hands people are only *supposed* to be willing to put at risk are hands like QQ-AA. And they're the very hands this person so obviously isn't going to waste shoving to win like 600 chips.

                        And it's the middle of the tournament, and it's starting to be a real grind trying to find spots to get ahead. So here comes this person, and they're willing to stack off, and they could be doing it with who knows what - possibly something where they're very behind.

                        So it's kind of frustrating to get a pretty good hand, and get it down to head-to-head against somebody who's a bit reckless, and then have to pass on the opportunity. Like I guess the only hands to be worried about would be then 77 to JJ. They could have 22 to 55. Everything else would likely be a coin flip, or better (like Arag).

                        Maybe one way to look at the situation might be, that if they were doing this with 55 and they got you to fold, they're probably going to get even more careless and try it again with even less. And then you could set them up with something even better, and get your 300+ chips back and then some - possibly the entire stack!

                        And if they don't do it again, then maybe that'll be a sign that they were playing 88 to even JJ that way and you dodged a bullet? And if they don't do it again, and they're a little tighter and less reckless than initially thought, then maybe there's that opportunity to steal the chips back in the subsequent orbits by continuing to keep up the pressure?
                        Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Jun 07, 2011, 01:33 AM.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I think raising 66 from SB vs this guy is fine. But if you think you're getting a call most of the time to a 2.5x raise you probably need to make it a bit bigger to discourage the call. I wouldn't want to play OOP with pocket 6s against a LAGgy player mid tounament. But I'm a nit.


                          Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
                          That basically sums up my thoughts for this hand. I still think calling was the correct play, at least with respect to chip EV. But I still think it was questionable. Am I'm not totally comfortable with some of the theoretical concepts involved (e.g. the soundness of getting 41BB in preflop on a non-lock hand). If anyone sees holes in my arguement, please point them out.
                          I definately don't call the allin here though. If your stacks weren't so large and even, you could take a shot here with your read.

                          Even if you are a marginal favourite (50 - 54% would be around my guess) in chip EV it's probably not +EV in $EV. My reason relates to the concepts behind ICM (which you obvioulsy can't exactly apply in this case). 80BBs is not twice as valuable in terms of final expectation as 40BBs. If you think 40BBs here might have a final expectation of $150 then 80BBs is probably only $275 or something.

                          So your descision becomes fold and take 100% chance of keeping you $150 expected otucome. Or call and have a 50%-54% chance at a $275 expected outcome.

                          Anytime two players are allin against one another, they give up a small amount of $EV to everyone else left in the tournament.

                          An cleaner example, If each player has $50 in expected value and equal stacks. The winner will get $95 in value and $5 in value goes to everyone else. So to increase your $EV you need a better than 53% edge.

                          53% * $95 = $50.35

                          These numbers are all just ball park estimates, they are just meant to explain the concept.
                          Last edited by ahar010; Tue Jun 07, 2011, 02:41 AM.


                          Quad Bracelet Winner

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by TrustySam View Post
                            So it's kind of frustrating to get a pretty good hand, and get it down to head-to-head against somebody who's a bit reckless, and then have to pass on the opportunity. Like I guess the only hands to be worried about would be then 77 to JJ. They could have 22 to 55. Everything else would likely be a coin flip, or better (like Arag).

                            Maybe one way to look at the situation might be, that if they were doing this with 55 and they got you to fold, they're probably going to get even more careless and try it again with even less. And then you could set them up with something even better, and get your 300+ chips back and then some - possibly the entire stack!
                            I like these paragraphs. The first is pretty insightful and more or less reflects my initial thoughts in the hand. The second argues for folding for metagame considerations.

                            Originally posted by ahar010 View Post
                            Even if you are a marginal favourite (50 - 54% would be around my guess) in chip EV it's probably not +EV in $EV. My reason relates to the concepts behind ICM (which you obvioulsy can't exactly apply in this case).
                            My understanding of ICM is probably significantly less than yours, but as I understand it, there's virtually no difference between the impact on cEV and the impact on $EV. I've heard that as a general rule, you don't have to consider ICM at all until you get near the final table (I'm not sure if there are any ICM considerations near the bubble; suffice it to say, I was near neither in this hand). Anyway, my estimate of this guy's strongest range in this spot had me as roughly a 54% favourite to win the hand in a preflop all-in confrontation, so I think I was good there.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                              In fact most weaker players do stupid overbets like this with good hands that are strong enough to 3b but they don't want to have to play post flop like AK, 99-JJ. Against that type of range you're almost a 2-1 dog.
                              Now that I think about it, this is actually a strong arguement to call. If he'd do this with AK and pairs below JJ that fall within his range more often than he would with the top end of his pocket pair range, that enormously adds to my equity because I can cut hands from the bottom of his range. He'd only need to be shoving the (including QQ+) range that is 16% of hands, less QQ+, in order for my equity to be over 50%. With QQ+, he needs to be shoving 24% of hands. And that's just for me to be a favourite. I haven't even done pot odds calculations yet.

                              I think the biggest thing that seperates all of you who think that this is a fold from me, who still thinks this is a call, is an emphasis on survival. Maybe I'm wrong and you guys think that this spot is -EV. I'm only guessing the spot is +EV. At the very worst, it should be marginally bad. But at this stage of an MTT, I have 100% of my sights set on chip accumulation, and survival kicks in later when money's actually in sight. That's because I play under the impression that shying away from +cEV spots early in MTT's is usually just as (if not more) detrimental to your ROI as it is to your stack. If there is a theoretical concept that dictates otherwise, I'd love to hear it.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X

                              X Cookies Information

                              We have placed cookies on your computer to improve your experience on our website. You can change your cookie settings at any time. Otherwise, we'll assume you're OK to continue.