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AT on the bubble with 14bb

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  • AT on the bubble with 14bb

    I think this was a wrong play, but I want to make sure.



    PokerStars Game #61620170125: Tournament #391009317, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2011/05/03 3:31:53 PT [2011/05/03 6:31:53 ET]
    Table '391009317 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
    Seat 2: quailo (1635 in chips)
    Seat 3: Jorel XIII (6335 in chips)
    Seat 4: sch@@pherder (15590 in chips)
    Seat 5: sport tolik (3200 in chips)
    Seat 7: andrei17731 (8445 in chips)
    Seat 9: Lok-vvo (5295 in chips)
    quailo: posts the ante 50
    Jorel XIII: posts the ante 50
    sch@@pherder: posts the ante 50
    sport tolik: posts the ante 50
    andrei17731: posts the ante 50
    Lok-vvo: posts the ante 50
    sport tolik: posts small blind 300
    andrei17731: posts big blind 600
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to andrei17731 [Ac Td]
    Lok-vvo: folds
    quailo: folds
    Jorel XIII: folds
    sch@@pherder: folds
    sport tolik: raises 2550 to 3150 and is all-in
    andrei17731: calls 2550
    *** FLOP *** [4s Js 6s]
    *** TURN *** [4s Js 6s] [4d]
    *** RIVER *** [4s Js 6s 4d] [Kd]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***

  • #2
    Review #'s 4 & 5:

    http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...nalysis-How-To


    A player with a 5bb stack should be shoving a wide enough range blind v blind that AT will play just fine against it, and you're getting a good price to boot. 1.6-1 on a call, you need roughly 39% equity and vs. a standard shoving range (no reads on villain) AT should easly have that eclipsed. Against a range of 30% you're actually a 56-44 favorite. To get your equity down below 39% I show he has to be shoving just under 10% of starting hands. So I guess against a nit this is probably a fold, vs. anyone else it's a snap call imo.
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    • #3
      I totally agree with Dave on this one. If super tight nit, then I'll fold it... anyone else, immediate call.
      Super-Moderator



      6 Time Bracelet Winner


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      • #4
        I wasn't sure so I decided to ICM it...

        Assuming it's the 27 man with payouts 100 / 72 / 48 / 28 / 22

        Using ICM...

        (not factoring in the antes or the BB you've paid)
        Before the hand you have $55.6 in tournament equity
        If you win you have $65.9
        If you lose you have $ 42.9

        Losing hurts about 1.2 times as much as winning helps. You're getting roughly 1.6 to 1 odds so you're getting roughly 1.6/1.2 = 1.3 to 1 tournament odds. So you need about 43% equity. You can call with your ATo as long as you think he's pushing top 15% or more.

        Surely he's shoving a bit wider than that, so it's a close call. You should have the necessary ~43% against his range. After all he's short-stacked and it's blind vs. blind.
        Last edited by oriholic; Tue May 03, 2011, 09:29 PM.
        4 Time Bracelet Winner


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