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Blind v blind, on the bubble. vs nit

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  • Blind v blind, on the bubble. vs nit

    $2.20 MTT, 47 left paying 45 spots. Villain is playing 10/2. Your thoughts on the optimal way to proceed?

    Stage #666070102 Tourney ID 6148411 Holdem Multi Normal Tournament No Limit 1,000 - 2011-05-01 16:37:41 (ET)
    Table: 25 (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
    Seat 1 - SCAFFER60 (38,107 in chips)
    Seat 2 - SCARN111 (17,731 in chips)
    Seat 3 - SHIZZITT69 (4,083 in chips)
    Seat 4 - PREDATORBG (10,521 in chips)
    Seat 5 - CNORT (30,705 in chips)
    Seat 6 - PLEIADIAN1 (14,772 in chips)
    Seat 7 - SANNE87 (11,365 in chips)
    Seat 8 - TheLangolier (43,720 in chips)
    SCAFFER60 - Ante 100
    SCARN111 - Ante 100
    SHIZZITT69 - Ante 100
    PREDATORBG - Ante 100
    CNORT - Ante 100
    PLEIADIAN1 - Ante 100
    SANNE87 - Ante 100
    TheLangolier - Ante 100
    SANNE87 - Posts small blind 500
    TheLangolier - Posts big blind 1,000
    *** POCKET CARDS ***
    Dealt to TheLangolier [4s Ah]
    SCAFFER60 - Folds
    SCARN111 - Folds
    SHIZZITT69 - Folds
    PREDATORBG - Folds
    CNORT - Folds
    PLEIADIAN1 - Folds
    SANNE87 - Calls 500
    TheLangolier ???
    Last edited by TheLangolier; Mon May 02, 2011, 03:16 AM. Reason: I can't spell
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  • #2
    If they had a hand, they should have raised you. I'd think my A was ahead and raise, as I'd put them on a 2-3 gap hand or random suited cards, trying to hit something on the flop. Yes, they could have an A too, but if so, they should raise you.

    Honestly, with only 2 more needing to go out to hit ITM and with having 32k chips left if I lost the hand... I'm shipping it. They're also more likely to fold that way, so they don't end up bubbling it.
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    • #3
      I had almost the exact same situation except I was in the sb, and I'm not the Langolier. It didn't turn out well for me ... was thinking of posting it for feedback. Maybe I should! (I kind of got distracted from my studies by all the upheaval, etc. Looking forward to learning more cool stuff though! umbup
      Last edited by TrustySam; Mon May 02, 2011, 02:43 AM.

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      • #4
        well its a toss up but since you were big stack and he limp for a pretty good size pot I would have raised it to 6k but then maybe thats what he wanted you to do I dont know how that player was playing during the tourney so that would have to be a on the spot call by you

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        • #5
          Raise to 3k or 4k.

          While 10/2 is "tight", this guy is in need of chips. Blind on Blind isn't going to come around hugely often, so even a Nit in need of chips will often limp in hoping to see a "cheap" flop versus your random hand. The fact he is only raising 20% of the few pots he takes to flop though argues that at least on occasion he may limp/shove you here.

          The raise will put him into a committment spot, and force him to shove or fold NOW (if he is "aware"), but it is also a relatively small amount of your stack to fold if he does shove you.

          The amount I raise will tend to be as "standard" a bet as I would normally make with something like AK here, and from that point I will tend to:

          A) Fold if he ships
          B) Fold if he flats and jams the flop and I have a "naked" 1 pair
          C) Consider calling if I have a decent draw with 1 pair and he flats, then jams.

          Key point is, my bet is sized to be LARGE ENOUGH in relation to his stack to get him to fold marginal hands, including some that are "ahead" of my A4o, but SMALL ENOUGH to keep from "sticking" myself to this pot and doubling someone into a greater "threat" to me at the table.
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          • #6
            How about a raise to about 3200? You're risking 2200 chips to win 2800, and if he ships you'd have to call 8065 to win 15265, so you're not getting the ~2.2 to 1 odds necessary against a nit's dominating range.
            4 Time Bracelet Winner


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            • #7
              snap shove, if he had any type of hand he should be shoving it here...you lose you are still comfortable with your stack, he loses he is gone and you add 12k to your stack

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              • #8
                Originally posted by JDean View Post

                While 10/2 is "tight", this guy is in need of chips. Blind on Blind isn't going to come around hugely often, so even a Nit in need of chips will often limp in hoping to see a "cheap" flop versus your random hand. The fact he is only raising 20% of the few pots he takes to flop though argues that at least on occasion he may limp/shove you here.
                omgosh, I thought 10/2 was their cards LOL. Oh I see

                Oh, that's interesting. Otherwise I would have thought, wow, 10% of hands and that's including bb and sb, when they've already put chips in the pot and it might not be that much more to call would seriously seem to limit the range of hands they'd likely be choosing to play (to stuff like 44 to 66, A8s, KJo, KQo?).

                This situation's one of those interesting ones - big stack, position, against a tight player, primo head-to-head hand in A3 and it hasn't costed a penny to get it heads up. On the other hand, it's not like a top 10 hand in that, while there's that chance you could be ahead of them, there's also that chance they could be ahead of you.

                I guess we're hoping they'll fold? Or if they call and miss the flop they'll fold if we miss too? Or if we hit that they don't hit better. I start feeling a little queasy when I've formulated a little 'plan' in my mind, except the 'villain' isn't with the program and doesn't act the way I thought they would. If they fold that's great. If they raise, I fold and that's clear-cut. If they keep check-calling, as often they do, I'll be sitting there wondering what the heck is going on, and how fast I can get this hand up to Hand Analysis for feedback ...

                Shove I guess they'd fold you would think? Could you also get away with risking fewer chips like 4 or 5 more BB's in case they check-raise? Would 3 be too little?
                Last edited by TrustySam; Mon May 02, 2011, 06:48 AM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by JDean View Post
                  Raise to 3k or 4k.

                  ...SMALL ENOUGH to keep from "sticking" myself to this pot
                  3k sticks you to the pot. You'd need less than 40% equity to call a backraise shove if my math is right. A lot of the time that this guy is getting cute, it'll be with a stronger ace than yours or an overpair (25-30% equity), but I think that the chips gained by just jamming him when he's willing to fold make up for that scenario. I think the math would support that, but I haven't tried doing it. I need to learn the fold equity formula. He might also call with weaker (this is blind vs. blind; he might think KJo is good here), but that's probably wishful thinking.

                  Anyway, 10/2 doesn't make me think that this is the kind of player that will often limp his small blind with the intent to commit to a raise. He might, but I think that he'll probably fold most of the time that he didn't raise in the first place. It's tough, because you're being put in a spot where if he's willing to call, he'll likely be ahead, but your best chance to pick up the pot is to bet it now. I'd look at the guy's stats and see how often he open limps and raise firsts his small blind, if you have any info on that. If he's ever limped there at all, I'd insta-jam. A4 is a pretty strong hand heads-up, after all.
                  Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon May 02, 2011, 05:52 PM. Reason: poorly grammar

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                  • #10
                    personally i would just check it down, unless i flopped a house.

                    reason being if he limped hoping you would raise and then jam over the top he has gained more chips, too many times do you lose chips on a blind on blind race etc, to me it makes no sense giving extra chips to the short stack so close to the bubble, you don't need to do anything silly in this position, just check it down or check/fold.

                    that is just my opinion and probably the wrong play, i just don't see why i need to put more chips in than is needed, it looks like a stop and go play to me.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
                      3k sticks you to the pot. You'd need less than 40% equity to call a backraise shove if my math is right. A lot of the time that this guy is getting cute, it'll be with a stronger ace than yours or an overpair (25-30% equity), but I think that the chips gained by just jamming him when he's willing to fold make up for that scenario. I think the math would support that, but I haven't tried doing it. I need to learn the fold equity formula. He might also call with weaker (this is blind vs. blind; he might think KJo is good here), but that's probably wishful thinking.

                      Anyway, 10/2 doesn't make me think that this is the kind of player that will often limp his small blind with the intent to commit to a raise. He might, but I think that he'll probably fold most of the time that he didn't raise in the first place. It's tough, because you're being put in a spot where if he's willing to call, he'll likely be ahead, but your best chance to pick up the pot is to bet it now. I'd look at the guy's stats and see how often he open limps and raise firsts his small blind, if you have any info on that. If he's ever limped there at all, I'd insta-jam. A4 is a pretty strong hand heads-up, after all.
                      He has roughly 10.3k behind his limp. His limp puts the pot at 2.8k.

                      You raise to 3k, putting 5.8k in.

                      He jams, and it is back on you to call approximately 7.3k into the 16.1k pot. While this does lay you 2.2 to 1 to call, the fact this guy has shown a 10/2 means you really HAVE to think your are facing a pp 44+, AT+, or (at worst) KQ.

                      Versus the greatly narrowed range his 10/2 implies, you are only going to see around a 32% to 33% equity with A4o AT MOST. Just because your equity is "right" does not mean you have to accept this situation where you are quite likely behind...

                      The "decider" in folding here boils down to 2 things for me:

                      1) Raising to 3k, then folding, retains your "chip standing" (pretty much) at the table. You are still either the chip leader, or near leader at the table.

                      2) You avoid doubling this short stack, and creating a "threat" at the table which does not necessarily exist if you raise to 3k, then fold.

                      I do not "like" giving a free flop to a player as tight as this who limps from the SB; there is simply too much chance he will FOLD to a raise which pushes him past a committment point with a call.

                      I do not "like" doubling this player up (potentially), costing myself about 25% of my stack, and "creating" a sizable "threat stack" directly adjacent to me to rely SOLELY on pot odds to make a call if he shoves.

                      Based on these 2 "dis-likes", I feel I can run the risk of giving him a SMALL chip up in hopes of taking this extra bit away, but cannot risk giving up a LARGE amount of chips simply because the price is "correct".

                      Hence, my thinking regarding a standard raise with the intent of folding to play back.
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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by bashy27 View Post
                        personally i would just check it down, unless i flopped a house.

                        reason being if he limped hoping you would raise and then jam over the top he has gained more chips, too many times do you lose chips on a blind on blind race etc, to me it makes no sense giving extra chips to the short stack so close to the bubble, you don't need to do anything silly in this position, just check it down or check/fold.

                        that is just my opinion and probably the wrong play, i just don't see why i need to put more chips in than is needed, it looks like a stop and go play to me.
                        The only issue I REALLY have with a check down is that what am I going to do on a "partial" flop hit, like A 3 7?

                        I did not "define" my hand pre-flop, so if my opponent checks to me, am I then "ok" in calling a half pot turn bet on something like a T? If I DO call that bet, I am nearing the amount I would have had into the pot with a raise to 3k pre-flop, but will be CALLING, thus giving myself only 1 way to win.

                        I think the thing to consider is "how much is it worth to me RIGHT NOW (pre-flop) to find out if this guy limped light?"

                        3k strikes me as about the correct amount, and I'd rather do that than playing so passively as to dump a top pair hand in the face of a check, then a bet turn.
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                        • #13
                          @JDean's post @ my post:

                          I suppose that if you assume that he's frequently limping with the intention to backraise a bet; and that he'll always call a shove with any hand that he'd backraise with; and that he'll always have you dominated, or have a pair higher than your kicker; then you have a point that bet/folding is better than shoving. But I still think your 3k or 4k amount is wrong. If you bet that, then you're giving him the opportunity to call and see a flop while pot-comitting himself at the same time. If you do that, your c-bet loses its fold equity, since it would rarely be wrong for the guy to call a c-bet. Since the guy is OOP, it actually makes sense that he might be (perhaps unintentionally) setting up a very good stop-and-go scenario where you bet, he calls, and then shoves any flop. If you're going to bet, it needs to be smaller. I'd say that a 2.4x bet would suffice.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by JDean View Post
                            The only issue I REALLY have with a check down is that what am I going to do on a "partial" flop hit, like A 3 7?
                            This, along with missing the flop, is the main issue I have with a small bet. A shove eliminates this problem. Just go all-in. It's always the right answer.

                            Actually, betting small might have more merit than going all-in. I might be getting a little shove-happy. But shoving also has merit, for the reasons I've laid out. I just won't give this guy credit for checking to induce a shove very often. Not in a $2 MTT. And not when hands that warrant it are so rare. I really think that this guy is going to be weaker than Ax at least 75% of the time. If you think that he's usually just calling here to induce a shove, then you're giving him waaaayy too much credit for having a hand.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by PanickyPoker View Post
                              Just go all-in. It's always the right answer.
                              I wouldn't go that far... but it is the only way to ensure you don't make any mistakes later in the hand.
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