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Flopped week flush. How should I play?

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  • Flopped week flush. How should I play?

    Flopped weak flush. How should I play Hand info: Date: 2011/4/9 15:58:22 Type: Tournament Fifty 50 Game: Hold'em No Limit Table: '383855534 1' 10-max Buy-In: $5 + $0.30 Blinds: 20/40 Table info: Seat 1: Player_1 (1560) Seat 2: Player_2 (1515) Dealer Seat 3: Player_3 (1080) Seat 4: Hero (1070) Seat 5: Player_5 (1755) Seat 6: Player_6 (1875) Seat 7: Player_7 (1395) Seat 8: Player_8 (1570) Seat 9: Player_9 (1420) Seat 10: Player_10 (1760) Antes/Blinds: Player_3 posts small blind 20 Hero posts big blind 40 Hole cards: Dealt to Hero Preflop: (Pot: 60) Player_5 folds Player_6 calls 40 Player_7 folds Player_8 calls 40 Player_9 calls 40 Player_10 folds Player_1 folds Player_2 folds Player_3 calls 20 Hero checks Statistics: Win: 18.9%, Tie: 1.2%, Lose: 79.9% Flop: (Pot: 200) Player_3 checks Hero bets 40 Statistics: Win: 74.9%, Tie: 0%, Lose: 25.1% Player_6 folds Player_8 calls 40 Player_9 calls 40 Player_3 folds Turn: (Pot: 320) Hero bets 105 Statistics: Win: 90.9%, Tie: 0%, Lose: 9.1% Player_8 calls 105 Player_9 calls 105 River: (Pot: 635) Hero checks Statistics: Win: 100%, Tie: 0%, Lose: 0% Player_8 checks Player_9 bets 440 Hero raises 445 to 885 and is all-inStatistics: Win: 100%, Tie: 0%, Lose: 0%, Hand Odds: 0:1, Pot Odds: 1.4:1, EV:635 Player_8 folds Player_9 calls 445 Showdown: Hero shows a straight flush, Four to Eight Player_9 shows a flush, Ace high Hero wins pot (2405) with a straight flush, Four to Eight On the flop I was afraid of higher flush. Should I ? I was lucky on the river umbup:, but it wouldn't happen frequently
    Last edited by Anykey444; Wed Apr 20, 2011, 07:23 PM. Reason: Links not allowed

  • #2
    The event is a 50/50, so SOME greater degree of "caution" is called for, simply because those events are quite similar to "flat pay strucxture" events which heighten the value of survival. BUT...

    The 50/50's do also pay "extra" for accumulating chips, so taking caution to the extreme is going to cost you.


    On the flop I was afraid of higher flush. Should I ?

    NO. NO. NO!

    Had you called a limp on the button with 22 to "set mine", then flopped bottom set, would you be "scared" of a higher set on a board with only draw potential? If you would be, then you probably are fearing "monsters under the bed" in more situations than this one, and may benefit from working through this "fear"...

    An opponent with a better hand will tend to signal that at some point to you, either with a solid raise, or CALLS of your reasonably sized bets. The time for you to exercise "pot control" in this spot is, at the very earliest, after the FIRST sign of strength, not before.

    You get a free flop with T5s in the BB, and flop "gin".
    Since you may well be facing higher flush DRAWS than your rag T, I see nothing wrong with leading out at this pot. The problem is you are "concerned" over a better flush so why bet only 40 here?

    You start this hand with roughly 25BB. While this does not give you "unlimited" post-flop play options really, it is a decent enough stack to make a normal sized flop bet. Your 40 chip lead bet lays 6 to 1 for someone to call, adn does not provide you with the sort of information you need if you have a reasonable concern a higher flush is present; consider...

    The draws possible against you are:

    A SET (7 outs)
    A better FLUSH (7 outs)
    2 Pair (4 outs)

    With 2 cards to come, IF guarenteed to see both the turn and the river, a 7 out draw has roughly a 30% chance of getitng there. On the TURN, there is about a 14.89% chance of it getting there. A 4 out draw will get there (by the river) about 17% of the time, and hits the tuirn about 8.5% of the time.

    If we recognize that we want to bet an amount which INVITES a call, but DENIES the odds to draws which would beat us, we really want to bet AT LEAST an amount which gives no more than 5.88 to 1 to any SINGLE opponent to hit the turn; this would require a bet more along the line of 80 chips.

    Since we could also fall prey to the "schooling effect", whereby the FIRST caller now increases the odds for later players to call along, we really should be thinking of a bet more in the 100 to 120 range. If we do not bet at least a little bit more than we would in a heads up situation, we run the risk of increasing our risk against the entire FIELD of opponents, and ALL the potential draws which could beat us...see?

    If you feel this "stronger" bet is more likely to COST you value by folding out hands who would pay the 40 chip bet, you need only look at the CURRENT pot size. 200 chips represents about a 20% chip up for you, and is a perfectly "acceptable" pot should you win only that amount.

    Since even investing 140 to 160 in this pot leaves you room to FOLD (you are only 14% to 16% invested in the pot, well under 30% committment threshold) if a threat card comes and you encounter strong resistance, that size bet does not stick you here.

    PLUS...

    Getting the extra value in NOW, when someone with an over-pair may call you, instead of waiting until a threat card comes which could dry up your action, is helpful to you as well...

    All in all, I think you could have bet this a little bit differently to know where you are at, to protect yourself a bit better versus draws which could run you down, and also to ensure a greater likelihood of getitng even more value form this situation.
    Double Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Great thanks for your reply, will post hand in different format later today I hope

      Comment


      • #4
        Why are people always afraid of flush draws and bigger flushes? I'd bet 160-200 on the flop. Get bigger flush draws to draw. Try to get your whole stack in by the river if possible.

        Since you hold 2 flush cards, you know two things: with 3 on the board and 2 in your hand, that's 5/13 hearts. There are only 8 left. If your opponent has 1 there are only 7 remaining to give him a flush, and only 6 of them don't give you a straight flush. So he only has 6 outs if he's drawing to a better flush. With no one raising preflop, chances are lower of him having a hand like suited AK, AQ, AJ A10 are pretty low too. He could have A3, A2, A7, A9, K2, K3, K7, K9, KJ, KQ, QJ, Q9, J9 of hearts, but he could also have lots of other cards, or 2-suited in a different suit. He could also have a set or two pair that would pay you off if the board doesn't 4-flush, and where you'd win if it doesn't pair..

        Fearing flush over flush is like fearing set over set. If it happens, oh well, it's a cooler (unless you limped in like 24 suited in an early position and had a 9-way limped pot...then chances of someone having a bigger flush are actually pretty high).

        Anyhow, my line here would be bet the pot on the flop, bet 2/3-3/4 the pot on the turn, raise all in on the river....although with your stack size might as well just push turn. pot~600, stack ~800.
        4 Time Bracelet Winner


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