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right call with a gut shot?

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  • right call with a gut shot?

    PokerStars Game #60674386218: Tournament #384512898, $0.25+$0.00 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2011/04/11 14:10:03 ET
    Table '384512898 3' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 1: jorgeg xd (2510 in chips)
    Seat 2: PabloAimar15 (7120 in chips)
    Seat 3: chibilly (1228 in chips)
    Seat 4: Petur Getov (5281 in chips)
    Seat 6: voland2012 (16805 in chips)
    Seat 7: EuroKeeper I (7185 in chips)
    Seat 8: bashy27 (9012 in chips)
    Seat 9: maitrii (18359 in chips)
    jorgeg xd: posts the ante 25
    PabloAimar15: posts the ante 25
    chibilly: posts the ante 25
    Petur Getov: posts the ante 25
    voland2012: posts the ante 25
    EuroKeeper I: posts the ante 25
    bashy27: posts the ante 25
    maitrii: posts the ante 25
    EuroKeeper I: posts small blind 200
    bashy27: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to bashy27 [6s 3c]
    maitrii: calls 400
    jorgeg xd: folds
    PabloAimar15: folds
    chibilly: calls 400
    Petur Getov: folds
    voland2012: folds
    EuroKeeper I: folds
    bashy27: checks
    *** FLOP *** [Qd 5d 7c]
    bashy27: checks
    maitrii: checks
    chibilly: bets 803 and is all-in
    bashy27: calls 803
    maitrii: folds
    *** TURN *** [Qd 5d 7c] [As]
    *** RIVER *** [Qd 5d 7c As] [Qc]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    bashy27: shows [6s 3c] (a pair of Queens)
    chibilly: shows [Tc Qs] (three of a kind, Queens)
    chibilly collected 3206 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 3206 | Rake 0
    Board [Qd 5d 7c As Qc]
    Seat 1: jorgeg xd folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 2: PabloAimar15 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: chibilly showed [Tc Qs] and won (3206) with three of a kind, Queens
    Seat 4: Petur Getov folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: voland2012 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 7: EuroKeeper I (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 8: bashy27 (big blind) showed [6s 3c] and lost with a pair of Queens
    Seat 9: maitrii folded on the Flop

  • #2
    With a gutshot, it's a fold.... here's why.

    there are 1625 chips in the pot preflop. Your opponent bet 803, or 49% of the pot. Your opponent SHOULD have either a Q or two diamonds. If you do have 4 outs to your gutshot (assuming they don't have diamonds), then you are a 16% favorite... if they have diamonds, then that loses you one out (4 of diamonds), so you have 3 outs and are at 12%.

    Their bet is way more than either the 16% or 12% of the time that you can win, so it's an easy fold.

    6 Time Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      does that also include that the pot odds gave 3 to 1 on my money, 800 chips into a pot of 2400, and the possibility of eliminating a player?

      this was also the final table with top 7 cashing.

      only asking as still trying to get to grips with the pot odds/implied odds, correct odds, outs etc.
      Last edited by bashy27; Mon Apr 11, 2011, 09:55 PM.


      • #4
        they are at 49% with putting their chips in (means they should have a made hand). Counting theirs, you're at 803 into 2400, or 33%.

        You can't win the hand 33% of the time... you're at either 16% or 12%, so it's too many to put into this pot and therefore you need to fold.

        Unless this is a KO tourney or KOing this person gets you up a pay level, where you get extra $$$ from a knockout, that's really irrevelant.... too many people use this as a reason to call a bet, when it shouldn't mean anything at the time.

        6 Time Bracelet Winner


        • #5
          thanks, that makes more sense , in future auto fold

          i'm guessing its a call if up and down though?


          • #6
            if both ends open, then you have 8 outs or 32% IF they don't have diamonds..... or 6 outs, 24% if they did have diamonds.

            If you put them on diamonds, it's an auto-fold there too. If you don't put them on diamonds, it's marginal (32% to win at 33% pot odds).

            6 Time Bracelet Winner



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