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Analyze this please

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  • Analyze this please

    Opponent here was playing solidly, no sign of craziness.

    I seriously considered shoving here. I thought everyone else would fold to a bet, actually. When an A came on the flop, I thought about checking but decided to throw a bet out there to see what would happen.
    Would checking after the flop been a good idea?
    Should I have shoved preflop considering where we were in the tourney?

    Thanks in advance for your help.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.1 Tournament, 750/1500 Blinds 175 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Button (t43293)
    SB (t6884)
    BB (t41223)
    UTG (t58796)
    UTG+1 (t36950)
    MP1 (t22610)
    MP2 (t32790)
    Hero (CO) (t49585)

    Hero's M: 13.58

    Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
    2 folds, MP1 calls t1500, 1 fold, Hero bets t6000, Button calls t6000, 3 folds

    Flop: (t17150) 5, A, 9 (2 players)
    Hero bets t6000, Button raises to t15000, Hero folds

    Total pot: t29150

  • #2
    I don't think normal players limp/call like your villain did. I know that some pros know how to limp/call for value, but most of the time it's done by an amateur who doesn't want to lay down a good-looking hand. I'd say that most likely means a suited ace, but that's me. Could have been anything, but the limp/call should definitely be some sort of tell.

    Typically in a tourney, I'd see the ace on the flop, swear in my head (sometimes out loud ) and then check/fold unless I had some solid info on my opponent that made me inclined to believe they would bet here with nothing. I don't like going all-in in tourneys, but especially not when there's a popular overcard to my pocket pair on board. <--- That's just what I would do, though, and I'm no expert. Some might disagree with that line.

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    • #3
      If you opponent is really good, I'd definitely put them on set of aces after the flop.

      Otherwise, I'd put them on AK, AQ or AJ suited.... and you're in deep trouble with KK against their pair of aces. Them just calling preflop could also mean another high pair, but if so, they wouldn't raise you after the flop.
      Super-Moderator



      6 Time Bracelet Winner


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      • #4
        Thats a horrible flop lead, instant reraise from me with anything. Bet more around 12k and fold to reraise.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Freckldgator View Post
          Opponent here was playing solidly, no sign of craziness.

          I seriously considered shoving here. I thought everyone else would fold to a bet, actually. When an A came on the flop, I thought about checking but decided to throw a bet out there to see what would happen.
          Would checking after the flop been a good idea?
          Should I have shoved preflop considering where we were in the tourney?

          Thanks in advance for your help.

          PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.1 Tournament, 750/1500 Blinds 175 Ante (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

          Button (t43293)
          SB (t6884)
          BB (t41223)
          UTG (t58796)
          UTG+1 (t36950)
          MP1 (t22610)
          MP2 (t32790)
          Hero (CO) (t49585)

          Hero's M: 13.58

          Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
          2 folds, MP1 calls t1500, 1 fold, Hero bets t6000, Button calls t6000, 3 folds

          Flop: (t17150) 5, A, 9 (2 players)
          Hero bets t6000, Button raises to t15000, Hero folds

          Total pot: t29150
          You played this hand very well.

          You have 1 limper ahead, and you hold a big hand. You raise to a total of 4 x the BB (3 BB raise, plus 1 for the limper); this is avery "standard". A player who has shown you reasonable start standards flats you. You have "only" 6k (4 BB) of your 24.5 BB stack in the pot...

          Your KK turns out to be the "ace magnets" they are, and an ace flops...

          This does not dissuade from you making a C-Bet, as it shouldn't have. The very "theory" behind a C-Bet is that you will "represent" a board over pair on an all low board with a C-Bet, and will represent a "big" Ace when an Ace flops.

          Your C-Bet is decently well sized at 4 BB (6k) in an 17.6 BB pot, and that amount is right around 35% of the pot. In some cases this is TOO small, especially since the board is so lacking in draws, but against a "good" opponent, that bet sizing is really pretty "strong" since it can look like you are BEGGING for a call. If the button was a less aware palyer, you'd need to fire more like 8k to 9k probably...

          Truth be told, the validity of this bet size versus an aware opponent relies a lot on your REGULAR BET PATTERN. Did you show a propensity to bet 30% to 40% of the pot on C-Bet when holding strong before? If not, say if your "normal" pattern was to bet more like half to 2/3rds the pot on your "hits", then this is a BAD bet; it will stand out to an aware palyer as a "dis-connect".

          An aware opponent is POTENTIALLY going to "test" you here if he sees your bet as "weak", but if he has been disciplined in his entry hands, his "test" is a lot more likely to come when he is holding AT/AJ/AQ, than it is with him holding TT/JJ/QQ. Since his raise is for better than 1/3rd his starting stack, there is little chance he is getting that close to committed WITHOUT an Ace.

          That all means a bet of 6k on this flop MAY have been perceived as great "strength" and gotten you a fold, and if your opponent did hold an Ace, he may raise, and save you chips. So well played overall, you lost "just" 8 BB of your 33 BB start stack, when you might have lost more.

          Now for your questions:

          1) Would checking after the flop been a good idea?

          Depends...

          Would the opponent bet if he did NOT have an Ace, and you checked?

          If so, check/folding is probably too weak, and just opens you to being bluffed easily. You probably want to C-bet SOMETHING to at least give him a chance to fold hands like TT/JJ/QQ instead of "bluffing" those hands you can "beat" behind your check, and getting away with it.

          If not, then checking is not a bad idea, since you check/fold if he bets, and lead the turn if he checks.

          An alternate line to consider is checking with the intention of check RAISING a "weak" bet, and folding to a stronger one. This returns the ability to exert "pressure" by putting your opponent to a tougher decision than would a simple lead bet. Of course this also increases your potential chip LOSS if he re-raises (or calls) your check raise.

          2) Should I have shoved preflop considering where we were in the tourney?

          NO WAY!

          You start with 33 BB, or a bit over 49k.

          With 1 limper, the pot is only at 5150 when action gets to you. This is only about 10% of your stack. The thought is that you want to only consider shoving if it represents a 20%+ chip up.

          Keep in mind, "old poker think" said you really didn't want to shove a 30+ BB stack at all pre-flop, because you cede too much "value" on hands that might be worth the risk, and only get called by hands that "crush" you if you do it as a bluff. The "new think" tends to see 30+ BB shoves, especially with "big" hands like KK, as worthwhile if you can pick up a decent pot...but 20% is "decent", while shoving to grab a 10% pot is giving up too much value still.

          So I MUCH prefer the line you actually took.

          By taking that line, you "lost" only 8 BB in a very severe "reverse implied odds" situation, when you could have lost a lot more. The only thing you may have wanted to do differently is following up your raise to 4 BB total pre-flop raise with a slightly STRONGER C-Bet of maybe 8k or 9k (either by leading out that amount, or check raising that amount). Of course you aren't really likely to get any "decent" ace (the only kind a "solid" player will probably call your pre-flop raise holding, even on the button), and that means you'd have lost 2 more BB+ if he DOES have the Ace. But that 2 BB "extra" loss may have been worth it to "block" the potential re-raise bluff from occuring...

          Overall, well played hand really, and "aces happen".
          Last edited by JDean; Sat Feb 05, 2011, 10:17 AM.
          Double Bracelet Winner

          Comment


          • #6
            Thanks everyone for taking the time to look this over and leave your comments. To be honest, I have next to no experience this deep in a tournament. It's a whole new ballgame once the bubble bursts. I have read about it, but just now starting to gain some experience. Thanks again..you have given me a lot to think about. I never knew how much can be learned from a single hand of poker. Part of the growth process I guess. umbup:

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