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Reading in practice with lag play

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  • Reading in practice with lag play

    I've decided to post my thoughts on recent hand I played live. Game in question is 20/40$ NL HE, currently HU (was 4 handed about 30 minutes ago).

    My opponent is a "seasoned bad player" (he is playing a lot for quite some time but didn't really learn much). He is also kinda wild-card type, one hand he may play conservatively and very next go aggro-donk on me which makes him hard to read (but pretty profitable since he will often get conservative with strong hands and wild-card with ugats).

    SB/BUTTON villian: 7890$
    BB hero: 4279$

    Action pref
    BB is dealt 77;
    SB raise 120, BB raises 360, SB calls;

    His raise doesn't indicate much, he will do that with about 70% of hands and since i caught 77 I'm defo going to 3-bet here to gather value from all his trashy hands (he is not going to really fold any hands to it that he elected to raise with), as suspected - he calls.

    Flop: AdQh4d, Pot: 720
    BB bets 500, SB raises 1600, BB raises all-in 3919, SB calls

    Now this is some weird action for 77, isn't it ? Let me explain what's going on.
    When I see this flop I got mixed feeling - it's a great flop for me to continue but at the same time if he hit it, I won't be able to push him off a hand so I will simply have to give it up. I'm definitly leading here in order to settle where I stand.
    Based on my previous history he is going to:
    call if he hit A or Q, he is almost never going to raise with them - he will do that either to let me hang (wild-card) or to control the pot (conservative) but he is never going to raise with that as he is losing a lot of value (this is dry-ish board by HU standards).
    Raise with draws, this is simple, if he got something like **d, KJ, 23 or so - he is going to raise/push (he is overplaying gutshot draws)
    Raise/fold with trash, he may feel kinky with some trashy hand and raise with it "because".

    Based on that after a raise his range consist most likely of hands that I beat (trashy hands) or I'm flipping against (draws with overcards) and small chance that I'm already drawing to 2 outs (but small, with strong hand he is going to just call most of the time).

    So what is the best line against that range ? We cannot just call as close to no card on the turn will make this play easier (what doesn't scare us, 3h ?) so this looks like push/fold spot.
    How our equity look if we push ? After his raise pot is 2820 and I have 3419 left in stack
    ~20% of time we are going to steal it right here - wins 2820
    ~65% of time we are "flipping" against a call with a sorta-draw (when playing you don't have time to break a hand into 8 variants when counting equity so you have to round up) so ev of that situation is 50%*8558 = 4279
    ~15% of time we are dead to a 7 (and sometimes even dead) so ev of that variant is about 10%*8558 = 855

    To sum it up, EV of pushing is about 3473-3419=+54$ while folding stops us at 0$ (what you put already in the pot is not yours any-more). Quite frankly 54$ is not much of a profit, heck we are pretty much just breaking even at this spot and either folding and pushing is ok here if you think "just this hand wise".
    If you think a bit wider - folding will create you a pretty weak image which you may later abuse and let your opponent hang himself on you. Calling on the other hand shows that you are willing to gamble, making your opponent less happy to bluff at you in the future.

    As voluntary homework - which image you prefer and why (take opponents style into account) ?

  • #2
    Well if he's not one to fold much and likes chasing, I'd fold and give myself a weak image. After said fold you're getting into "shove" territory due to a dwindling stack. A strong starting hand or something like 10's and up and hopefully you can 3 bet shove preflop against maybe a mid range suited/non suited connector like 89 or something. Or, maybe that's just horrible rookie play on my part.


    • #3
      This is a cash game, i can take another 2k from my pocket and rebuy (which i will do if i drop below 3k)


      • #4
        I have no idea. I have no real experience with live play as there are no casino's w/in 2500 miles of where I live and I have no true poker loving friends besides online. Please elighten me with your thoughts. I'm interested as to what you feel is the right answer.

        But to follow up, as I said in the previous post. I would play a conservative game placing most of his strong bets on draws, as you've stated, and hope to dominate him with hands I hit, or pocket pairs vs paying me off on draws. He may get lucky every now and then, but I don't think he'll hit enough draws to make calling down to a showdown profitable in the long run. Just because he overbets on a flush draw or throws a check raise/shove all in trying to get lucky won't deter me from calling, because based on the information given, you'll get paid off enough to be able to steal his stack away from him.
        Last edited by fadmin; Tue Feb 01, 2011, 09:07 PM.


        • #5
          Do we really wanna "respect" here against a type of players who tends to overplay draws ? Proper answer takes much more reasoning than 1 line :P


          • #6
            bump for the right answer.


            • #7
              There is no right answer, it all depends a lot more on your style and plan for the future of this HU game. I'm aggressive, most of the time I won't have it so as you can see from action - i pushed so he will be less happy to fight back at me.



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