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A hand analysis from Mark

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  • A hand analysis from Mark

    I had enough to say about this hand to justify a post here I think. Sorry it has been so long.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Mark,
    I was playing in a warm up last night 28th 8.30 my time.

    I was not in the hand but i thought the call after the flop by zagnut was a
    good call and i would have done the same due to the number of outs he had i
    think 16.

    Someone said he made a bad call so i was wondering what you thought.

    Hand No 9991351.

    Would appreciate your comments if you have time.

    Tony.


    Tony, I have pasted the hand below. In my opinion Zagnut should have folded to the raise before the flop. However once he had called and saw the flop there was nothing wrong with his call on the flop as he actually had 15 outs. (8 x clubs, 4 x 4's and *possibly* 3 x Aces. This will make him around 5/4 - 7/4 to win the pot depending on whether the Aces are good. His call of the raise on the flop of $6,725 was correct. The pot already had at that time (without the $6,725 of Citidiver) $7,300 . This means that in total there as $14,025 in the pot and the bet was only $6,725 so the pot was laying zagnut over 2/1.

    There is an argument that one should not risk all ones chips in a tournament just because they have good pot odds. This really depends on the amount of tournaments one plays. For example, if like T.J or Hellmuth I played 300 tournaments a year I would likely call this bet because in the end the pot odds will even themselves out and as long as I always have the best of it when I put my chips in I will benefit from those correct pot odds.

    However, if I only play the occasional tournament then I might not want to go broke with such a hand. I might prefer to wait until I have much more of an edge before calling for all my chips.

    So the answer to your question is that in my opinion zagnut should have folded to the pre-flop raise. Let me explain why:

    The only hand that is of any use to me with A,3 suited is a flush. If an Ace flops I am likely to be a mile behind to anyone else in the pot with an ace. I am unlikely to flop a good straight draw. More likely a gutshot draw. So unless exactly 3 clubs flop I am likely to either throw my hand away or at best have a 6/4 (approx) drawing hand.

    I would much prefer to throw my hand away and give up the $400 big blind when faced with a raise as in this hand.

    That said, if I was in that position with that hand then my decision would be based on the amount of tournaments I play as to whether I am the type of person that wants to call for all my chips on a drawing hand just because I have good "pot odds".

    Hope this helps.

    Mark








    Hand No: 9991351 Table No: 127002
    Name: WPO Warm-Up Round 1 Event (Mon 2:30pm CST) (#84276)MNHF
    Time: 2002-10-28 14:30:00-06
    Seat 10 : (5377) sport42 $15075
    Seat 9 : (6087) xaceking $18325
    Seat 8 : (7679) E-Man $7700 is Timed out
    Seat 7 : (5672) BCBuster $10200
    Seat 6 : (45758) zagnut $10800
    Seat 5 : (36781) Tony D $30300
    Seat 4 : (4320) Citidiver $8175 <--- Dealer
    Seat 3 : (33214) acesfullofit $21475
    Seat 2 : (5308) movingabout $20850
    Seat 1 : (44051) bchmoorebchmo $10975
    Seat 10 : sport42 : Down Cards: (5C) (JS)
    Seat 9 : xaceking : Down Cards: (8H) (8C)
    Seat 8 : E-Man : Down Cards: (4S) (2S)
    Seat 7 : BCBuster : Down Cards: (6H) (AD)
    Seat 6 : zagnut : Down Cards: (3C) (AC)
    Seat 5 : Tony D : Down Cards: (10D) (QH)
    Seat 4 : Citidiver : Down Cards: (9S) (9D)
    Seat 3 : acesfullofit : Down Cards: (6S) (7D)
    Seat 2 : movingabout : Down Cards: (4H) (KS)
    Seat 1 : bchmoorebchmo : Down Cards: (KC) (QS)
    Seat 10 : sport42 : Antes $50
    Seat 9 : xaceking : Antes $50
    Seat 8 : E-Man : Antes $50
    Seat 7 : BCBuster : Antes $50
    Seat 6 : zagnut : Antes $50
    Seat 5 : Tony D : Antes $50
    Seat 4 : Citidiver : Antes $50
    Seat 3 : acesfullofit : Antes $50
    Seat 2 : movingabout : Antes $50
    Seat 1 : bchmoorebchmo : Antes $50
    Seat 5 : Tony D : Small Blind $200
    Seat 6 : zagnut : Big Blind $400
    Seat 7 : BCBuster : CALLS $400
    Seat 8 : E-Man : FOLDS
    Seat 9 : xaceking : RAISES $1000
    Seat 10 : sport42 : FOLDS
    Seat 1 : bchmoorebchmo : FOLDS
    Seat 2 : movingabout : FOLDS
    Seat 3 : acesfullofit : FOLDS
    Seat 4 : Citidiver : CALLS $1400
    Seat 5 : Tony D : Calls Time
    Seat 5 : Tony D : FOLDS
    Seat 6 : zagnut : CALLS $1000
    Seat 7 : BCBuster : FOLDS
    Dealer : Up Cards: (10C) (5S) (2C)
    Seat 6 : zagnut : CHECKS
    Seat 9 : xaceking : BETS $2000
    Seat 4 : Citidiver : RAISES $4725
    Seat 6 : zagnut : CALLS $6725
    Seat 9 : xaceking : FOLDS
    Dealer : Up Cards: (10C) (5S) (2C) (6D)
    Seat 6 : zagnut : CHECKS
    Dealer : Up Cards: (10C) (5S) (2C) (6D) (AS)
    Seat 6 : zagnut : CHECKS
    Seat 6 : zagnut : Won high with Pair: a pair of A, 10, 6, 5
    Seat 6 : zagnut : Wins high $20750
    Observer : Chat--> (Citidiver) LOL, gl to all, unbelievable

  • #2
    Similar Situation

    A similar situation occurred with with me yesterday in a $ tourney at a different site yesterday. Down to 3 tables. Myself and one other guy are the big stacks. I had QQ, 2 diamonds on board. Basically, we end up at the same situation that Mark's example is. I go all-in at the turn. The other big stack has Ad4d. At that point, if he calls, he's getting about 6/4 on his money. He calls, no A or diamond on the river and he's basically done in the tourney. I questioned him on why he called, as I felt that he had a big stack and plenty of time. I found his answere to be of interest (and yes I am paraphrasing):
    "I was very lucky to get this stack. After watching the players at this table play, I did not think I could play with you guys. I was pretty sure you had a big pair. But, I felt my only chance to win this tourney was to hit the flush or an A. With that much money I thought I would be able to get in the money or win."

    Now, I didn't know how to respond to that. I typed OK.

    Personally, I don't think I would ever make that call in the hand situation Mark described, in a tournement where there is money on the line. But if I found myself in the guy aboves shoes (ie; I got lucky to get here, I'm over my head, my confidence is very shaky, etc.), I wonder. Would you?

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Similar Situation

      Originally posted by Bruno
      Now, I didn't know how to respond to that. I typed OK.
      I think your opponent, under the circumstances, gave a very thoughtful and perceptive answer.

      Heaven help us all when players who can think this clearly start to really learn the game :wink:

      But it also sheds light on a regular discussion we have here, about whether to accept a slight edge (like QQ vs AK) even if it risks busting you. Your opp realised that s/he wasn't able to live with the other players and accepted a serious negative edge, aiming to build a huge stack. Personally, if I blundered into a similar situation and found myself up against a bunch (relatively speaking) of Chans and Helmuths and Cloutiers and Nguyens I hope I'd have the humility to realise that taking a swing like that might be my best chance.

      But wait ! That's what I do all the time anyway :lol:

      regards

      Glenn

      Comment


      • #4
        Rosita said:
        I think your opponent, under the circumstances, gave a very thoughtful and perceptive answer.

        Heaven help us all when players who can think this clearly start to really learn the game
        Couldn't agree more, Glenn.

        Before he called my all-in, he thought about it for a good 30-40 seconds (an eternity in on-line poker...lol). He moved to our table as the big stack in the tourney. He was bluffed off a couple of small pots (I know I did it once to him, and am sure 2 of the other guys did too), he was trapped with a boat when he hit the nut flush, but was cautious and didn't lose too much, and was beaten on kickers for small pots a couple of other times.

        You know Glenn, I was so taken aback by what he typed, "OK" was all I could get out. Taken aback not by what I found to be a stupid decision by him but, that the frankness and depth of his answer shocked me.

        Comment

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