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Ref post on betting theory

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  • Ref post on betting theory

    The equation is Bet=[q/(p-q)] where p=winner's chance
    and q= loser's chance.

    For 10% edge, it's 55:45 so Bet=[.45/(.55-.45)] = .45/.1 =
    4.5 BETS Bet more and opponent must fold or take bad odds.

    For 20%, it's 60:40 so Bet=[.4/(.6-.4)] = .4/.2 = 2 BETS
    Bet more and opponent must fold or take bad odds.

    For 50%, it's 75:25 so Bet=[.25/(.75-.25)] = .25/.5 = 1/2
    BET Bet more and opponent must fold or take bad odds.
    An interesting posting at RGP about optimal betting curve to make another player's call incorrect from a pot odds perspective. Thanks to J. Turmel for repost.


    For 100%, it's 100:0 so Bet=[0/1] = 0 BET
    With no chance of losing, anything you can get out of him is
    too much when, given no chance of winning, he should never
    call.

    It's counter intuitive to what most people think.
    The smaller your edge, the more you must bet to protect.
    The larger your edge, the less you must bet.
    But you must never give opponent a positive call.
    You'll rarely get an overlay when calling me except
    in limit games where they're often available which is
    why the Turmel2Step is necessary to automatically
    highlight the winners and the losers for your choice.
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