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Rule of 2 and 4 and pot odds

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  • Rule of 2 and 4 and pot odds

    Hi

    I find the rule of 2 and 4 very helpful for calculating my chances of making my hand but when I calculate pot odds they are in the following format 5/1 etc but the rule of 2 and 4 produces a %
    Therefore I am not sure where I am
    Is there an easy way to convert odds to % or % to odds and if not how do others cope with this.
    Eg

    9 outs on flop so 36% chance of making hand by river using rule of 2 and 4
    Odds to call 5/1
    I need them both to be in % or both to be in odds to know where I am

    Any help appreciated

    Thanks

    Mike

  • #2
    Hi Guy, The Pot Odds and Expected Value lesson in the Cash Game course is an excellent guide to determine your odds in relation to the rule of 2 and 4. Hope this helps. umbup: Joss
    2 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      To turn an odds ratio into a fraction, which is easy to turn into a percentage, the calculation goes like this:

      Odds
      X:Y

      Fraction
      Y/(X+Y)

      So if your odds are 4:1, the fraction is 1/(4+1) = 1/5, which as a percentage is 20%

      If odds are 3:2, the fraction is 2/5 = 40%

      To travel in the opposite direction, converting from percentages to odds, you put the % on one side of the ratio and (100-%) on the other, and then simplify.
      e.g. 20% shown as an odds ratio is (100-20):20 = 80:20 = 8:2 = 4:1

      Some other commons ones that you can commit to memory:

      1:1 = 50%
      3:2 = 40%
      2:1 = 33.3%
      3:1 = 25%
      4:1 = 20%
      5:1 = 16.7%
      Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Oct 10, 2013, 04:46 PM.
      Bracelet Winner

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      • #4
        Hello OrdinaryGuy1,

        Welcome to PokerSchoolOnline. Here's a short video about PSO and what it has to offer you. Also check out >>This Page<< for more info.



        We're here to help you so please feel free to ask any questions you may have and thank you for being a member of PokerSchoolOnline.

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        Bracelet Winner

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        • #5
          Thanks

          Hi

          Thank you both for those replies. I can work it out now

          Much appreciated

          Mike

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by HokyPokyToo View Post
            Hi Guy, The Pot Odds and Expected Value lesson in the Cash Game course is an excellent guide to determine your odds in relation to the rule of 2 and 4. Hope this helps. umbup: Joss
            I have read this over and over and it is just confusing me. In the first example it looks a Flushdraw (9 outs) with a pot of $5, to call you need to pay $1 giving you pot odds off 5:1. That I get but where I’m getting confused is the next bit. If I go with the 2 and 4 rule I make it 18% chance of me hitting the flush on the next card so I make that as if I played the same hand 5 times I will hit once. Meaning I will only break even. But in the example it said out of 4 plays you will hit once I would have thought you would need to have a 25% chance of hitting your hand to hit it once out of 4 plays? Maybe my maths is failing me or I have got myself confused. Pot odds v hand potential is want I’m trying to get in my head at the mo and my head is spinning. If someone could clear this up for me I would be very happy. I have decided to stop playing till I am confident with this. Michael
            Last edited by Michae2005; Wed Oct 16, 2013, 12:45 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Hi Michael. There used to be a typo on one of the 'odds and outs' pages that confused everyone, but I think that got fixed. I can't immediately spot a mistake on the page you linked to.

              Originally posted by Michae2005 View Post
              But in the example it said out of 4 plays you will hit once I would have thought you would need to have a 25% chance of hitting your hand to hit it once out of 4 plays?
              Maybe I'm looking at the wrong example, but I don't see where it says "out of 4 plays". When discussing the nut flush draw, it says "According to the chart above, your odds are 4:1 to hit your flush draw."

              What that means is the odds of hitting the flush are "four to one against", i.e. "You will miss 4 times for each 1 time you hit". Odds of 4:1 means a 1 in five, (20%) chance.

              Hope this helps!

              Cheers,
              Arty
              Bracelet Winner

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              • #8
                Hi Arty

                Thank you for replying, I thought I had it right. I have pasted the part below that got me confused and doubting myself and have highlighted what I believe is the typo, I think it should say Five not Four?

                Example with the nut flush draw:
                You have the nut flush draw (nine outs) on the flop and the pot is $4. Your opponent bets $1. There is now $5 in the pot ($4 + $1), and it is $1 to call. The pot odds are therefore 5:1.

                According to the chart above, your odds are 4:1 to hit your flush draw. The pot odds are higher. You should therefore call.

                You can see why this call is correct by looking at the long-term picture. If you make this call four times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once. That means you will win $5 for every $4 (4 * $1) you invest. That is good business.

                I all so noticed that further down it said that if you have 4 out’s its 10:1 however on the chart further up it states 4 outs is 11:1!!!

                Thanks for the help
                Michael

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                • #9
                  Hope this helps http://www.pokerstarsblog.com/oddschart.html umbup: I prefer comparing %'s to %'s also as 4/1 i think of horse racing

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Michae2005 View Post
                    If you make this call four times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once.
                    The section in red looks like a mistake to me. 4:1 odds means odds of 4 to 1 against, or a one in five chance (20%). I'll let a moderator know, and hopefully it can be corrected. Thanks for drawing this to our attention. umbup:
                    Bracelet Winner

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                    • #11
                      Glad to help

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
                        The section in red looks like a mistake to me. 4:1 odds means odds of 4 to 1 against, or a one in five chance (20%). I'll let a moderator know, and hopefully it can be corrected. Thanks for drawing this to our attention. umbup:
                        Hi Can I just point out that this is still wrong and confusing me . Am I right in saying that if I have 2:1 (15 outs) to hit my hand I would need pot odds off 3:1 to break even in the long term? Thanks Michael

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                        • #13
                          If hand odds are the same as pot odds, then you break even.
                          Bracelet Winner

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                          • #14
                            Just as an extension to what Arty wrote,

                            If the pot odds are greater than the hand odds you will make money in the long run.

                            E.g. As what you wrote

                            Pot odds 3:1
                            Hand odds 2:1

                            You will make money.

                            Cheers,

                            Pullin

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Michae2005 View Post
                              Hi Arty

                              Thank you for replying, I thought I had it right. I have pasted the part below that got me confused and doubting myself and have highlighted what I believe is the typo, I think it should say Five not Four?

                              Example with the nut flush draw:
                              You have the nut flush draw (nine outs) on the flop and the pot is $4. Your opponent bets $1. There is now $5 in the pot ($4 + $1), and it is $1 to call. The pot odds are therefore 5:1.

                              According to the chart above, your odds are 4:1 to hit your flush draw. The pot odds are higher. You should therefore call.

                              You can see why this call is correct by looking at the long-term picture. If you make this call four times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once. That means you will win $5 for every $4 (4 * $1) you invest. That is good business.

                              I all so noticed that further down it said that if you have 4 out’s its 10:1 however on the chart further up it states 4 outs is 11:1!!!

                              Thanks for the help
                              Michael

                              You need 2 to 1 odds to break even on a 1 in 3 chance to hit.
                              You need 3 to 1 odds to break even on a 1 in 4 chance to win.
                              You need 4 to 1 odds in order to break even on a 1 in 5 chance to hit.

                              In the above example, the pot stands at $4 before the flop. The flop comes, and you hold a flush draw. An opponent in front of you then bets $1, making the total pot $5. You must call $1 to continue.

                              The chance to hit your flush draw is approximately 19% on the next street (9 outs divided by 47 unknown cards), therefore you will hit it roughly 1 time in 5 attempts (actually, you'd need a 20% chance to hit to have a 1 in 5 chance exactly).

                              At the time you must make your decision the pot odds to call are 5 to 1, since you would be risking 1 to potentially win $5.

                              In this example you will lose $1 a total of 4 times (or $4), for every $5 pot you win. If the pot were only $4 instead of $5, you'd just about break even (actually be a bit under break even, but the rule of 4 and 2 is not exact). Since the return exceeds the risk, you should make the $1 call here.

                              I see nothing wrong with the example as presented here...

                              I do think the part in red is just a typo. I think it meant to read:

                              If you make this call FIVE times, mathematics says that you will hit your draw once, and lose 4 times.
                              Last edited by JDean; Sat Jan 11, 2014, 11:58 PM.
                              Double Bracelet Winner

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