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Question about The Rule Of Two And Four

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  • Question about The Rule Of Two And Four

    Hey there,

    i have followed the basic poker guide from pokerschool, and i wanted to ask if the way i understand it in the following example is true:

    My hole cards are: Ks-Kh
    the flop comes: Kd-3d-8h

    now, following the rule of two and four, an opponent that holds two diamonds, has roughly 4x9=36% of making a flush by the river, and i have a chance of 4x6=24% (3 3's and 3 8's left) of beating him by getting a full house of either kings full of threes or kings full of eights.

    Am i doing it right this way?

    Thanks in advance!

  • #2
    Yes, villain has about a 36% chance of making a flush, but when you have a set, you have a redraw to a boat or quads (the case king is another of your outs), meaning that even if villain makes a flush, he could still lose.

    You have 7 outs to a turned boat/quads, and you'll have 10 outs after the turn, because if that's another "blank", you'll pick up 3 more outs to a full house.

    Villain's real chance of winning the hand is a bit less than 36%. Notice that the 8d is one of the cards that would complete a flush, but that would give you a full house, so he only really has 8 outs to a "winning" flush at this point. (He won't know that, however).

    P.S. Generally speaking, you don't need to count outs if you're sure you have the best hand. With KK on K83, you have the nuts, and only need to worry about being behind if the turn is a diamond. At that point, you can say "If he has a flush, I have 10 outs to improve". Prior to that, you should bet big for value, to make it a mistake for villain to call with his draw.
    Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Thu Jun 27, 2013, 10:50 PM.
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    • #3
      Cheers, i didn't think about the fact that the turn bringing another blank card would increase the number of outs for the river, making that another 20%, that's a good thing to keep in mind!

      Thanks!

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      • #4
        The 3 additional outs only add about 6% to your winning chances.

        For the record, top set vs a naked flush draw on the flop will hold up 74% of the time. The FD only really has 26% equity. (It would be closer to 36% if you just had top pair). If the turn completes the flush, then your 10 outs translates roughly as 20% equity, but the real figure is almost 23%. (The rule of 4 and 2 is just a good approximation).
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        • #5
          Hi Bambibafslet, Welcome to PokerSchoolOnline! Here is a link to help familiarize you with all the features and services available at PSO. Feel free to look around the forum and post any further questions or comments you may have. You are invited to join the PokerSchoolOnline Community Home Games Club, and information on how to join the club may be found HERE. The PSO Series of Poker is running through July 7th, 2013. Cash tournaments are found in the main lobby under "tourney" > "private." Play money tournaments (US friendly) are found in the PSO Home Games Club. Hope to see you there! umbup: Joss
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