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A question for JWK24

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  • A question for JWK24

    Hi JWK24,

    I have just re-read your blog post on "pricing out opps post-flop", and I was wondering if you could help me with a strategy (and anyboady else who is reading this) when you are the opponent who is speculating with a flush or OESD draw.

    For instance, if you are seeing the flop with a flush or OESD draw and villains are always pricing you out of the pot, do you always fold or could you suggest an implied odds strategy to see the turn card, river card, etc,(or something along those lines) to help to make the situation +EV in some way?

    I have already received advice form ArtysmokesPS, but would like to know your opinon (or anybody else) on these situations.

    Thanks for the help,

    pullin1988

  • #2
    Hi pullin1988! If you're priced out and chase a draw, then you WILL LOSE chips on average, every single time that you try to draw. The one and only way that you can turn drawing into a +EV play is IF the opp will stay and lose a large number of chips if you hit... the overwhelming majority of the time. If you're not going to gain enough chips to cover the -EV draw, then you will not win on average and need to muck. Basically, if they don't have a large stack and you can win a large portion of this every single time you hit... you will lose chips on average and I'm gonna muck each time that's the case. The overwhelming majority of opps won't punt their stack most of the time.. so I'm mucking the overwhelming majority of the time when I'm priced out. Especially at a weaker table, I'm almost never going to take a -EV draw, as I can be patient and find a +EV situation to get my chips into. I want my chips in when I expect to gain chips, not spots where I'm going to lose chips. Players that chase -EV draws, while a small % of the time, they can win a big pot, they will leak their entire stack off over time and will NOT win long-term, as chasing these situations is a huge spew. Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.umbup: John (JWK24)
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Thanks for the advice.

      pullin1988

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