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    I just had an interesting hand that got me thinking.

    3 hands allin. Without an equity calculator estimate who is the favourite in this hand and who is the underdog

    As9h vs JsTh vs 4c5c

    Andy
    Last edited by ahar010; Sat Apr 20, 2013, 12:50 AM.


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  • #2
    kq seems to have more chances, 45 with the least

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    • #3
      Originally posted by EvokeNZ View Post
      kq seems to have more chances, 45 with the least
      Sorry I changed the bar on you KQ became JT.

      btw did you see the bit about not using an equty calculator? :P


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      • #4
        Yeah I saw. I figured picture cards can make more top pairs, A can make a high card and top pair.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by EvokeNZ View Post
          Yeah I saw. I figured picture cards can make more top pairs, A can make a high card and top pair.
          Very nice then.

          I would rank them A9 > JT > 45s

          A high wins on all boards where noone improves. When A makes a pair everyone else is drawing slim to two pair or better.

          JT needs to improve to win the hand. If they do make a pair then it'll dominate any pairs from 45 and one pair from A9

          45 needs to improve and dodge 4 over cards. Or make a flush or straight.
          Last edited by ahar010; Sat Apr 20, 2013, 01:00 AM.


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          • #6
            of course if it wasn't an all in I'd rate 45 a bit higher for some sort of drawing power. imo

            a9 doesn't have the connectedness for me.

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            • #7
              If you think A9 vs JT vs 54s is surprising, you should run the following hands through Equilab/pokerstove:

              AJ vs 88 is a flip, with 88 the slight favourite.
              KQ vs 88 is also a flip, with 88 again the slight favourite.
              AJ vs KQ is 60/40 in AJ's favour.

              So it seems KQ is the worst hand of the three.

              But put all 3 hands in the same pot and I think it's the closest 3-way race that you can get, with 88 being the favourite by a tiny margin, and KQ being a bit better than AJ.

                     Equity     Win     Tie
              AJo    32.39%  32.29%   0.10% 
              KQo    33.74%  33.65%   0.10% 
              88     33.87%  33.77%   0.10% 
              Last edited by ArtySmokesPS; Sat Apr 20, 2013, 02:21 AM.
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              • #8
                Originally posted by EvokeNZ View Post
                of course if it wasn't an all in I'd rate 45 a bit higher for some sort of drawing power. imo

                a9 doesn't have the connectedness for me.
                In an allin situation though. You aren't looking for a straight or flush to win. Any hand better than your opposition will do.

                A9 is a 58% vs 42% favourite vs JT or 45s alone
                JT is a 58% vs 42% favourite vs 45s

                So how does the dynamic change in a 3way hand


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                • #9
                  I had AA all in five ways once. Even though against each one I was the favourite, against them collectively it was a coin flip for me to win.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ArtySmokesPS View Post
                    If you think A9 vs JT vs 54s is surprising, you should run the following hands through Equilab/pokerstove:

                    AJ vs 88 is a flip, with 88 the slight favourite.
                    KQ vs 88 is also a flip, with 88 again the slight favourite.
                    AJ vs KQ is 60/40 in AJ's favour.

                    So it seems KQ is the worst hand of the three.

                    But put all 3 hands in the same pot and I think it's the closest 3-way race that you can get, with 88 being the favourite by a tiny margin, and KQ being a bit better than AJ.

                           Equity     Win     Tie
                    AJo    32.39%  32.29%   0.10% 
                    KQo    33.74%  33.65%   0.10% 
                    88     33.87%  33.77%   0.10% 
                    My original hand

                    As9h vs KsQh vs 4c5c is actually very close to a 3way race. With KQ edging slightly ahead to 34%

                    Playing around replacing KQ with JT improved JT's equity to almost 37%. 45 holds firm on about 32.5% equity and A9 taking the big hit dropping to 31% equity.

                    Heads up
                    A9 vs JT 58/42 favourite

                    Add in another clear underdog hand 45s

                    Suddenly A9 loses 27% equity in the hand and JT only loses 5% equity.

                    Big shift


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                    • #11
                      My guess would be the big shift comes from where the 45s gets it's equity from. About 5% of it is coming from making striaghts and flushes which comes out of both the other hands. But alot fo the unimproved boards that previously won by A9 will a contain a 5 or a 4 and are now won by 45s. Conversly the board that JT wins will predominately by pair of T's or better which aren't affected by boards containing a 4 or a 5.

                      Very interesting dynamic.

                      Not sure it really factors much into gameplay, other than short stacked small suited connectors really hold their equity vs multiple opponents.


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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ahar010 View Post
                        Not sure it really factors much into gameplay, other than short stacked small suited connectors really hold their equity vs multiple opponents.
                        Indeed. One thing that equity simulations do have an effect on is something I've been struggling with lately... and that's creating shoving ranges and calling ranges when faced with a shove.
                        For example, I'm often happy to shove 10bb on the button with a hand like T9s, because if I'm called by a hand like AQ, I have two live cards, plus straight and flush potential, giving me equity when called of over 40%.
                        If I'm in the blinds facing a shove, then I'd happily call with AQ if I knew a villain was shoving hands like T9s, but I'd hate to call if villain has AK, because then I'm dominated and down to 25%.

                        It's really interesting (to a nerd like me) to create a shoving range and then find out which hands do best against that range.
                        For example, if a villain was shoving 77+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AJo+ (9.35% of hands) then I'd actually have more equity if I called with KQs, than if I called with AJo. If villain's range included more suited aces, then suddenly AJ is a better hand to call with than KQs.
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