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Stats to drown in

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  • Stats to drown in

    If you go here you will find my group one and two stats for more than 40 thousand hand. I have been keeping these stats for the play money SNG games I am playing. Now I can hear the naysayers already telling me such numbers are worth [censored] since it is for play money. Real money is so different.

    Well people, that link is for my "real money" games. To date, I have completed 300 games, or 24 thousand hands. Would you like to see the group one and two numbers? I'll give you a little hint with a teaser. We all know that pocket aces should win approximately 85-87% of the hands. My play money numbers are hitting 86%. Right in the range of reasonableness. Yes, looser play in chip games means more people are willing to challenge all-in plays with ATC, but the math is impressing me.

    Before anyone disses chip play, let me tell you my games are at the $2000 + $110 range for the 27-player SNG games. This is considered a low stakes game. My objective is to do 1,000 of these games and I'm doing about 100 per calendar month in 20-game blocks. I try to maximize points, playing as if these games were part of the Battle of the Planet Competition.

    I also wish to mention that I am finding this level of competition a lot tougher than the $300 + $20 games. At least here the players have a far more serious outlook. My success rate is a lot lower than my previous 1.000-game run, but that just makes this a more challenging series. I also have a lot of other interesting stats to drown anyone interested.

    That said, if anyone wants to see these numbers posted, let me know. I'm guessing the elite checque players will again trash talk chip action, but are you willing to post your numbers? Nobody was willing to take my challenge last time. How about this time?

  • #2
    Statistics for 300 games or 15 orbits:

    All Games
    24,264 ----- hands dealt
    06,544 ----- hands played (26.97%)
    02,583 ----- hands winning

    Winning percentages
    39.47% ----- of hand played
    10.65% ----- of total hands

    My Record
    014 games ----- Ist place
    016 games ----- 2nd place
    026 games ----- 3rd place
    026 games ----- 4th place
    016 games ----- 5th place

    ITM percentage = 32.67%
    gain to date = $342,240


    Group Numbers

    Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

    099 -- 016 -- 000 == 861 --- 861 --- AA
    097 -- 031 -- 006 == 758 --- 724 --- KK
    060 -- 027 -- 005 == 690 --- 652 --- QQ
    052 -- 022 -- 030 == 703 --- 500 --- JJ
    049 -- 010 -- 030 == 831 --- 551 --- TT
    041 -- 010 -- 023 == 804 --- 554 --- AK suited
    095 -- 026 -- 100 == 785 --- 430 ---AK off suit
    025 -- 009 -- 030 == 735 --- 391 --- AQ suited
    028 -- 013 -- 036 == 683 --- 364 --- AJ suited
    022 -- 010 -- 032 == 688 --- 344 --- KQ suited

    568 -- 174 -- 292 == 765 --- 549 --- Group One and Two Totals

    To read this: pocket kings won 97 hands, lost 31 hands, and I folded them 6 times. The winning percentage is 97 over (97 plus 31) The overall percentage is 97 wins over (97 plus 31 plus 6)

    Number of hands
    0,115 --- AA ----- 11.12% ----- 00.47%
    0,134 --- KK ----- 12.96%
    0,092 --- QQ ----- 08.90%
    0,104 --- JJ ----- 10.06%
    0,089 --- TT ----- 08.61%
    0,074 --- AK suited ----- 07.16%
    0,221 ---AK off suit ----- 21.37%
    0064 --- AQ suited ----- 06.19%
    0,077 --- AJ suited ----- 07.45%
    0,064 --- KQ suited ----- 06.19%

    1,034 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.26%


    How to read these numbers: I had pocket aces 115 times, which is 11.12% of my Group One and Two Hands. Pocket aces came up 0.47% of the hands dealt. Overall, the Group One and Two hands accounted for 4.26% of the hands dealt.

    I am still wondering why AK is such a great hand. My stats say it is great preflop, but sucks sewer water postflop. Perhaps some of these stats are more indicitive of my playing style than the card's success rate with a different playing style.

    136 -- 036 -- 123 == 791 --- 461 --- AK combined ----- 28.53% of the Group One and Two hands.


    My objective is one hundred orbits, which is 2,000 games. If anyone thinks these numbers worth updating, let me know and I'll update after every five orbits.

    Comment


    • #3
      Yes and I had been wondering where in the Hell you had gotten to. Good read Hedgehog. umbup:

      Comment


      • #4
        Just one more stat and then I'll return to my usual lurk mode.


        Average game speed = 82 hands per hour

        My average number of hands per game = 80

        This means I am playing less than an hour per game. I love telling people that "ZZZZZ" during a game how fast we are playing. Most have no idea how fast the game goes. If I go deep, the speed can go over 120 hands per hour. (I need to be in third or better for that.) What I have seen is that the 3-table game is around 40 - 50 hands per hour, 2-tables goes up to 60 - 75 hands an hour, and you hit 80 - 88 hands at the final table. You really accelerate once pass the bubble and speeds in excess of 100 hands an hour are normal.

        When I have finished first or second, the game can be between 1 hour 35 minutes to 1 hour 58 minutes. This is why I figure 2 hours per game. If I don't have that much time, I'll not start.

        Comment


        • #5
          Very interesting stats, Cairn, I for one would be happy to see updates. I find it interesting that your win percentages with various hands is so close to "the norm". I checked my own percentages when I had a hud running, and found them much the same.

          Keep up the good work!!

          Bracelet Winner


          Comment


          • #6
            Cairn, another interesting point shown up by your stats, is how RARE ( or not ) are certain Hole cards. Most people believe that Pocket Aces or Kings are quite rare hands. Your stats show that of the category one and two hands that you were dealt in this sample ( albeit a small ample ), you were only dealt one of these hands more frequently than AA or KK and that was AKo, which was almost twice as frequent as either of those two hands. You were dealt KK a little more often than AA, but even those two hands came more frequently than any of the other cat 1 & 2 hands. Quite interesting I think. umbup:
            3 Time Bracelet Winner


            Comment


            • #7
              Every time I try talking stats with people, they give me the cold sholder saying "it isn't real since it is for play money." My thinking is the RNG doesn't know if it is real or not. Thus the odds should be the same, which is why I'm posting these numbers. Let those who dis the play money side provide their numbers or claim mine are out of kilter.

              Yeah, I'll update every five orbits. At the rate I'm playing, that could be another full year getting to the 100 orbit mark. That should be over 100 thousand hands in those 2.000 games.

              Speaking of Ace-King, suited or not, I honestly think this hand is over rated. It is a great hand pre flop and has a lot more outs than a pocket pair of aces. However, once the flop is shown, it will usually suck sewer water. That is also the opinion of our local poker club.

              I have to check the Internet, maybe for the next update. I remember seeing something about the frequency of getting pocket aces. That stat should be the same for any pocket pair.

              I still think there is a strong element of luck in poker. I went 9 games today and hit the money in three. ( one third and two fifths) In one game, I had more hands played, (30), and more hands won, (14), than the other eight games combined. The number of hands, 113 for the good game and 330 for the other eight. How I hate group 8 hands.

              Had pocket aces cracked when I went all-in pre flop by somebody with 7-4 off suit. You have to laugh, or you'll cry. Flop was a rainbow, 5-6-8. Cannot tell you how many times somebody will need a card to win against me and it hits. Don't even get me started on the runner-runner hands I've lost today. Oh well, tomorrow is another chance.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Cairn Destop View Post
                Every time I try talking stats with people, they give me the cold sholder saying "it isn't real since it is for play money." My thinking is the RNG doesn't know if it is real or not. Thus the odds should be the same, which is why I'm posting these numbers. Let those who dis the play money side provide their numbers or claim mine are out of kilter.

                Yeah, I'll update every five orbits. At the rate I'm playing, that could be another full year getting to the 100 orbit mark. That should be over 100 thousand hands in those 2.000 games.

                Speaking of Ace-King, suited or not, I honestly think this hand is over rated. It is a great hand pre flop and has a lot more outs than a pocket pair of aces. However, once the flop is shown, it will usually suck sewer water. That is also the opinion of our local poker club.

                I have to check the Internet, maybe for the next update. I remember seeing something about the frequency of getting pocket aces. That stat should be the same for any pocket pair.

                I still think there is a strong element of luck in poker. I went 9 games today and hit the money in three. ( one third and two fifths) In one game, I had more hands played, (30), and more hands won, (14), than the other eight games combined. The number of hands, 113 for the good game and 330 for the other eight. How I hate group 8 hands.

                Had pocket aces cracked when I went all-in pre flop by somebody with 7-4 off suit. You have to laugh, or you'll cry. Flop was a rainbow, 5-6-8. Cannot tell you how many times somebody will need a card to win against me and it hits. Don't even get me started on the runner-runner hands I've lost today. Oh well, tomorrow is another chance.

                Biggest leak I see with people and AK,suited or no,is the tendency to underplay the hand pre-flop and overplay it (on misses) post-flop.

                As to the validity of stats play money versus real all I can say is that I see the same beats,the same board textures and the same basic frequency of what I get dealt for starters in play money as I did in real money games.

                Kung Fu is Kung Fu.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I've often thought play money has plenty of value for those wishing to test out theories, and just generally practice. Obviously, you do tend to get a real mix of player types, and for me, being a tight player means that I tend to do very well in the play money games, since quite a few people play loose.

                  I then started reasoning to myself that the low value cash / sit and go's would still attract the loose, 'easier' players, but in actual fact, I found it considerably harder. It seemed that merely going from play money to the lowest level of micro-stakes offered a tighter, more competitive opponent. I also considered if the higher value games would statistically show less 'bad plays', such as like the other day when I was in the small blind (just the blinds left in the hand), and the big blind called my hefty raise with 69os. Yes, I lost the hand.

                  Thus, I currently conclude that the reality is that at any level, you'll still see the 'wrong plays' being made, regardless of someone's bank balance.
                  Last edited by Shodan388; Mon Jul 23, 2012, 05:07 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I have to agree. The play money games do encourage the ATC player to go to the river. It is why I'll not push the Ace-King combo. I prefer saving my chips if it misses. As you can see from the stats, my hands miss quite frequently as I fold as many hands as I play.

                    One comment made earlier noted how the Ace-King happened more frequently than any other top ten combo. That shouldn't surprise anyone since there are so many more possibilities. The other combinations require the two cards be suited. Think it is something like four times as many possibilities due to that suit factor.

                    Based on my personal experience, the higher chip play SNG games do draw more of the serious players, and better play. However, you cannot escape the crazies. Just to name a few you can meet: (dare anyone to say they are not in cheque play)

                    1 ---- The ATC flop player. This person will call anything to see the flop. The better their initial two cards, the more determined they are to see the flop. Not likely to call an all-in preflop.

                    2 ---- The quickie player. This person wants to establish a chip lead right at hand one. They are most likely to go all-in pre flop if they have royalty or better in their hands. These players have a set chip goal, such as $6,000, and will sit out once they hit this sum.

                    3 ---- The golden Ace. If this player gets an ace, you cannot get them off the hand. If both cards pair on the flop, they call anything.

                    4 ---- The play maniac. At least this player will warn you he is going to go all-in. Standard reason is "who cares." This is probably special to chip games.

                    5 ---- River rats. Give this player any hope of getting a great hand and he will call almost anything to see the river. This is the (explatives deleted) player who hits that two to four-out hand.

                    6 ---- Flush rat. A special river rat player. Will stay to the river if they have a chance of getting a flush. The higher their possible flush, the greater the chance they will call to the river. Will fold like a wet noodle if they miss the flush.

                    7 ---- Straight rat. No, this isn't a gay issue. This player will hold to the river if they have a 4-card straight after the flop. Most determined to call if it is open at both ends. Like the flush rat, they fold if they miss.

                    8 ---- Pair power. This player becomes harder to outbid the higher their pair. They might fold low pairs pre flop, but will often call anything in the hopes of catching the set. From middle pair, say the 8-8, and higher, they will sometimes call, or force, the all-in play.


                    Let me give a comparison between the lower SNG game, the $300 + $20, and my current level of $2,000 + $110. In the lower games, you made final table in less than 20 hands. I find you get to FT after 50 hands. In the lower games, I sometimes made it to the money by never playing a hand. That doesn't happen in this level.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      The Hedgehog is always on top of the stats and I assume you are posting this to show the members that it truly is random. Your stats are 100% accurate umbup: I was wondering if you could add the VPIP/PFR , WWSF , WTSD , WSD I'm asking for these numbers because being dealt AA 86% of the time can't show how you play them whereas the numbers I am asking for will shed better light on a players style and also give great comparison for them to see if they might be playing them well. Mine are as follows for AA only ( 1302 times I've been dealt them ) 94.85%/88.86% VPIP/PFR 88.73% Won when saw flop 65.44% went to show down 83.95% won at show down Thanks

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        If I could get those stats, I would gladly provide them. Everything I get is without any of the tracking software that is out there. I'm pulling everything you see off the "stats" segment of the game.

                        I once considered VPIP as a guestimate, taking the average of hands played by eliminating the BB, but that didn't make sense to me. It didn't shed any light on my play.

                        Didn't think of those other stats. I can see the number of wins with and without showdown being valuable to determining a player's style. I'll assume you mean the player providing those stats as I cannot see how you can get them for others. Not sure how they would help me improve, but I'll start collecting those with games 401 and onward. Can always use some advice.




                        You are so right about my purpose in all this number crunching. We all hear about the RNG being anything but random. It's always talk, no facts. Well, I'm posting these numbers as a way to say it is an honest deal. I also provide the means to duplicate my study and prove it to yourself.

                        Here is how I'm doing it:

                        Piece of paper with three columns and ten rows. Each row is one of the top ten hands, which are the group one and two hands. The columns are - win - loss - folded. I then complile the totals on an Excel spreadsheet. (one page of paper will cover 100 SNG games)

                        Other stats obtained from game: number of hands, game start time, and game end time.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Just for your info, these numbers are for cash games only Here are mine for AA only ( 1288 times ) 96.43%/90.06% VPIP/PFR 88.50% Won when saw flop 52.65% went to showdown 78.43% won at showdown The value of the last 2 numbers (showdown) being smaller can be explain by playing CAP games. Since CAP games are often all in pre flop. Thanks for the numbers Cairn umbup:

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            My point is simply that it doesn't matter whether you believe it is rigged or totally random because there is astounding evidence that all hands are dealt out over large samples the same amount of times to each player.

                            Variance happens and happens to all of us but it is being able to study and play and learn and increase our win rate etc or changing the way we play AA ( not hust AA of course but all hands ) to increase the wtsd and wsd rate on all hands.

                            The study part is key because it will help us understand where we played them and how many opened ahead of us etc.

                            It is vital that we study our own game and fix our own leaks before me move on to reading others etc but all of these things will not change variance..... variance is real both good and bad but it is how we handle that variance that will effect us the greatest in the long run.

                            Lastly wherever there is the opportunity to make large sums of money there will be cheats and people trying to maximise the money into their corner..... just ask bernie madoff and ummmmmmm Full Tilt poker.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Been doing a lot of internet surfing for information regarding some of the statistics on this game. As ususal, there is a lot of stuff out there and the old hedgehog has had to wade hip deep in lots of numbers. Most isn't too interesting, but I did find some data of interest that does relate to my stats.

                              Now I know my database is somewhat limited at this time, but here are some numbers to track for those with bigger hand histories. I'll have to recheck when I finish my 100 orbits. Now 100K hands is by no means an extensive number of hands statistically speaking, but lets give the old hedgehog some slack and see how his numbers compare.

                              I want to see I come to these statistical norms. The closer I am, the more confidence you can have in the RNG. That said, a number cruncher's delight:

                              pocket aces ------ 0.45% (a specific pocket pair)
                              Ace - King --------- 1.20% (makes sense, lots more combos possible.)
                              Ace - King suited - 0.15%
                              pocket pairs ------- 5.90% (any pocket pair)


                              I do believe my pocket aces, (0.47%), is within the range of reasonableness. Haven't had time to check out these other numbers, but some of the other numbers I've seen regarding getting that big hand makes me understand how easy it is to loose.

                              Comment

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