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How big is the chance?

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  • How big is the chance?

    Hi guys,
    I was just wondering how big the chances are of 2 people having a flush
    at the same time, with only 3 suited cards on board.
    It has happened to me several times now, and unfortunately, in most of these
    cases I had the lowest cards!
    Can anyone give me some percentages on this?
    Thanks!

  • #2
    Originally posted by pipergsm View Post
    Hi guys,
    I was just wondering how big the chances are of 2 people having a flush
    at the same time, with only 3 suited cards on board.
    It has happened to me several times now, and unfortunately, in most of these
    cases I had the lowest cards!
    Can anyone give me some percentages on this?
    Thanks!
    I think the percentage of 1 person having a flush is 1 in 255, probably doens't help you much..... hmm.....uh....oo.... mm... maybe someone else has the answer!

    Comment


    • #3
      The chances of two flushes appearing in one hand is 0.2%

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by IonelG56 View Post
        The chances of two flushes appearing in one hand is 0.2%
        This is the solid preflop percentage of this happening before any cards have been dealt yes? But out of curiousity, what happens to this percentage if the flop comes monotone? And what about as the hand plays out, and the 3rd suit comes on the turn or river? Surely these 'untrue' percentages rise?

        Im not the best at math. :p

        Comment


        • #5
          The probability of 2 or more flushes given at least 1 flush is 10.7%
          The probability of 2 or more flushes given that a particular player has a flush is 20%

          Comment


          • #6
            chances of someone hitting a flush if i slow play aces?? 100% lol
            Bracelet Winner

            Comment


            • #7
              I was going to start a thread, but this one is similar.

              The limper holds A/Q clubs, I have 7/6 Clubs and the flop is 5/4/3 Clubs...

              Any idea of the odds of this happening?

              PokerStars Game #69570313118: Tournament #460301719, $0.23+$0.02 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (125/250) - 2011/10/27 7:47:40 AEST [2011/10/26 16:47:40 ET]
              Table '460301719 2' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
              Seat 1: rufi726 (2360 in chips)
              Seat 2: limpThalimp (7255 in chips)
              Seat 3: 7Alex7Sam7 (2715 in chips)
              Seat 4: coopster_001 (6372 in chips)
              Seat 5: OpasenVasya (13407 in chips)
              Seat 6: Caracalero (6635 in chips)
              Seat 7: muhahah1987 (2185 in chips)
              Seat 8: MacsDado (4590 in chips)
              Seat 9: ONLYKIEV (3778 in chips)
              rufi726: posts the ante 25
              limpThalimp: posts the ante 25
              7Alex7Sam7: posts the ante 25
              coopster_001: posts the ante 25
              OpasenVasya: posts the ante 25
              Caracalero: posts the ante 25
              muhahah1987: posts the ante 25
              MacsDado: posts the ante 25
              ONLYKIEV: posts the ante 25
              7Alex7Sam7: posts small blind 125
              coopster_001: posts big blind 250
              *** HOLE CARDS ***
              Dealt to coopster_001 [6c 7c]
              OpasenVasya: folds
              Caracalero: folds
              muhahah1987: folds
              MacsDado: calls 250
              ONLYKIEV: folds
              rufi726: folds
              limpThalimp: folds
              7Alex7Sam7: folds
              coopster_001: checks
              *** FLOP *** [3c 5c 4c]
              coopster_001: checks
              MacsDado: checks
              *** TURN *** [3c 5c 4c] [Jc]
              coopster_001: checks
              MacsDado: bets 1000
              coopster_001: calls 1000
              *** RIVER *** [3c 5c 4c Jc] [Th]
              coopster_001: bets 1000
              MacsDado: raises 1500 to 2500
              coopster_001: raises 2250 to 4750
              MacsDado: calls 815 and is all-in
              Uncalled bet (1435) returned to coopster_001
              *** SHOW DOWN ***
              coopster_001: shows [6c 7c] (a straight flush, Three to Seven)
              MacsDado: shows [Qc Ac] (a flush, Ace high)
              coopster_001 collected 9480 from pot
              MacsDado finished the tournament in 17th place
              *** SUMMARY ***
              Total pot 9480 | Rake 0
              Board [3c 5c 4c Jc Th]
              Seat 1: rufi726 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
              Seat 2: limpThalimp (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
              Seat 3: 7Alex7Sam7 (small blind) folded before Flop
              Seat 4: coopster_001 (big blind) showed [6c 7c] and won (9480) with a straight flush, Three to Seven
              Seat 5: OpasenVasya folded before Flop (didn't bet)
              Seat 6: Caracalero folded before Flop (didn't bet)
              Seat 7: muhahah1987 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
              Seat 8: MacsDado showed [Qc Ac] and lost with a flush, Ace high
              Seat 9: ONLYKIEV folded before Flop (didn't bet)

              Comment


              • #8
                well, there are 3 on the flop that are accounted for and 2 in the opp's hand. This assumes you do NOT have the A or Q of clubs AND your opp does NOT have the 6 or 7 of clubs.

                That leaves 47 cards left, so the odds you get the 6 or 7 of clubs is 2 in 47, assuming you get one, there are then 46 left, you need either the 6 OR the 7... the one you didn't get on the first card (1 in 46). 2/47 * 1/46 = 1 in 1081 for you to get the 67 of clubs.

                Same principle and numbers for their exact cards, so 1 in 1081.

                For both together, 1/1081 * 1/1081 = 1 in 1,168,561
                Super-Moderator



                6 Time Bracelet Winner


                Comment


                • #9
                  The interesting thing is if you replace AcQc with 2s9h, replace 7c6c with Ad 2c and make the flop 10h 3d 8s the answer is essentially the same, but who cares?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
                    The interesting thing is if you replace AcQc with 2s9h, replace 7c6c with Ad 2c and make the flop 10h 3d 8s the answer is essentially the same
                    +1 umbup:
                    Super-Moderator



                    6 Time Bracelet Winner


                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                      well, there are 3 on the flop that are accounted for and 2 in the opp's hand. This assumes you do NOT have the A or Q of clubs AND your opp does NOT have the 6 or 7 of clubs.

                      That leaves 47 cards left, so the odds you get the 6 or 7 of clubs is 2 in 47, assuming you get one, there are then 46 left, you need either the 6 OR the 7... the one you didn't get on the first card (1 in 46). 2/47 * 1/46 = 1 in 1081 for you to get the 67 of clubs.

                      Same principle and numbers for their exact cards, so 1 in 1081.

                      For both together, 1/1081 * 1/1081 = 1 in 1,168,561
                      Thanks for that.
                      Last edited by coopster_001; Thu Oct 27, 2011, 03:00 AM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Speaking of str8 flushes, here's a cooler for you.

                        Unfortunately, I'm the dummy .... end of the str8 flush.

                        PokerStars Game #69561247682: Tournament #447029272, Freeroll Hold'em No Limit - Level II (30/60) - 2011/10/26 14:10:17 ET
                        Table '447029272 13' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
                        Seat 1: Rotmilan72 (2480 in chips)
                        Seat 2: JokerAce68 (2160 in chips)
                        Seat 3: schmidti1956 (2760 in chips)
                        Seat 4: annie_22at90 (2420 in chips)
                        Seat 5: wetmoose 613 (1720 in chips)
                        Seat 6: Yarko111 (3960 in chips)
                        Seat 7: 007 OLDMAN (2440 in chips)
                        Seat 8: yonny vivas (2120 in chips)
                        Seat 9: Tasha4133 (2440 in chips) is sitting out
                        schmidti1956: posts small blind 30
                        annie_22at90: posts big blind 60
                        *** HOLE CARDS ***
                        Dealt to annie_22at90 [As 2c]
                        wetmoose 613: folds
                        Yarko111: folds
                        007 OLDMAN: folds
                        yonny vivas: calls 60
                        Tasha4133: folds
                        Rotmilan72: folds
                        JokerAce68: folds
                        schmidti1956: calls 30
                        annie_22at90: checks
                        *** FLOP *** [4c 3c 5c]
                        schmidti1956: bets 120
                        annie_22at90: calls 120
                        yonny vivas: calls 120
                        *** TURN *** [4c 3c 5c] [6c]
                        schmidti1956: bets 120
                        annie_22at90: calls 120
                        yonny vivas: calls 120
                        *** RIVER *** [4c 3c 5c 6c] [Qc]
                        schmidti1956: checks
                        annie_22at90: bets 780
                        yonny vivas: raises 1040 to 1820 and is all-in
                        schmidti1956: folds
                        annie_22at90: calls 1040
                        *** SHOW DOWN ***
                        yonny vivas: shows [7c 8c] (a straight flush, Four to Eight)
                        annie_22at90: shows [As 2c] (a straight flush, Deuce to Six)
                        yonny vivas collected 4540 from pot
                        *** SUMMARY ***
                        Total pot 4540 | Rake 0
                        Board [4c 3c 5c 6c Qc]
                        Seat 1: Rotmilan72 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
                        Seat 2: JokerAce68 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
                        Seat 3: schmidti1956 (small blind) folded on the River
                        Seat 4: annie_22at90 (big blind) showed [As 2c] and lost with a straight flush, Deuce to Six
                        Seat 5: wetmoose 613 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
                        Seat 6: Yarko111 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
                        Seat 7: 007 OLDMAN folded before Flop (didn't bet)
                        Seat 8: yonny vivas showed [7c 8c] and won (4540) with a straight flush, Four to Eight
                        Seat 9: Tasha4133 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


                        I was hoping he was holding the Ac.


                        "Luck! There is such a thing, and I know that there is, because it comes in two kinds. Good and bad." --- Nick "The Greek" Dandolos (1883-1966) U.S. card player.

                        Comment

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