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What are the chances of such a hand occurring ?

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  • What are the chances of such a hand occurring ?

    I mean how often can we expect AA, KK, QQ and AK appear in one hand?

  • #2
    Nice hand Seen a lot of aa / kk / qq / jj types but throw in that AK and pretty damn rare.

    What I find most shocking is that the aces held
    You might be a king or a little street sweeper, but sooner or later you'll dance with the reaper.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by IonelG56 View Post
      I mean how often can we expect AA, KK, QQ and AK appear in one hand?
      ** Smart Ass Answer Warning **

      It happened so the probability is 100%.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
        ** Smart Ass Answer Warning **

        It happened so the probability is 100%.

        rofl
        You might be a king or a little street sweeper, but sooner or later you'll dance with the reaper.

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        • #5
          I was wondering if someone can help me calculate that as I seem to be stuck in some calculations. I have calculated something, but I can't manage to include the fact that there are 4 of each card in my calculations so they are very imprecise.
          From what I calculated there is a 37 out of100.000 probability of facing multiple larger pairs when holding QQ. But that also only accounts for the AA and KK, not the AK so I wonder if someone who knows this stuff better could help me out. It is more of a curiosity.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by IonelG56 View Post
            I was wondering if someone can help me calculate that as I seem to be stuck in some calculations. I have calculated something, but I can't manage to include the fact that there are 4 of each card in my calculations so they are very imprecise.
            From what I calculated there is a 37 out of100.000 probability of facing multiple larger pairs when holding QQ. But that also only accounts for the AA and KK, not the AK so I wonder if someone who knows this stuff better could help me out. It is more of a curiosity.
            Answer is: it depends.

            Since you really do not "need" to know the chances of this crazy big card distribution happening to play good poker, asking that question is not going to help you much if you approach it stictly from the "math chances" of 3 monsters and the strongest drawing hand being there...

            But if you want to RANGE The opponents, and then assess the likelihood of these hands being there as a function of the opponents' various ranges, that WILL help you assess your situation better...

            So the important thing to note is that a small UTG raiser, with a CALLER, then a SHOVE by a stack which has a lot of "playability" (50+ BB), means the chances that there is not jsut 1 "big hand" here, but more than one goes WAY up.

            How far it goes up though is a function of what these opponents have shown that they will do in the past...

            In poker, what is, is. and as Joe noted, if it can happen, at some point it is gunna happen...

            All YOU can do is use the info you have to the best of your ability to judge whether your QQ is viable here.

            That's why the answer is "It depends".

            See?
            Double Bracelet Winner

            Comment


            • #7
              Or better yet, it's irrelevent.

              You couldn't have anticipated later callers. I'm not necessarily a fan of calling a shove with QQ, because even vs AK you're little better off than a coinflip - only AQ and lower pocket pairs are your friends.

              But basically such a situation is so unlikely, so rare, that it's impossible to compensate (adjust) for the possibility of their occurence.

              I call these "mirror" hands, where the outcome would have been the same regardless of who was holding which cards.

              Comment


              • #8
                Thank you for you contributions JDean and jf70. They helped me a lot.
                I also agree that you shouldn't call an all-in except in certain situations with QQ but this hand was played in the new version of the PSO and a lot of players at the table were donks that went all-in very often and with very bad cards so I decided to go for it. It turned out that this time they really had good hands. Plus if I would have known that a lot of players would have called I would have floped the queens.

                Comment

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