PokerStars homepage
  • If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Odds and outs!

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Odds and outs!

    Okay, I have never focussed really to much on odds and my % to hit a hand and what not. I want to learn this part of poker because I feel that this is something I need to improve to develop more as a player. I would like to know the "easiest" way to get a basic grasp on using math in my game. I see players sending links to sites that look like equations only a freakin rocket scientist would be able to figure out. I know the 2 and 4 rule, but I am kind of confused about the 2:1 or 5:1 and figuring out if I am a 2 to 1 under dog or favorite. Please help me develop a basic plan to get me started in the world of poker math! I have been playing solidly since feb of this year and have already turned $50 into more than $600 playing mtts and ring games, so I am not a loosing or break even player, but I do have room to grow! Thank you in advance for any advice or help that you give me! Ace- umbup:

  • #2
    Booo!! NObody has anything to say?? C'mon!

    Comment


    • #3
      BUMP

      The maths side of the game is something I struggle with too Ace.

      It would be good if we got some responses which I am sure we will at some point.

      TC

      Comment


      • #4
        Yea, hopefully we do! =)

        Comment


        • #5
          Here are a couple. I'll post more thoughts later.

          Knowing how to count outs and the rule of 2 & 4 is a good starting place. Remember that you need to know what outs your opponent may need to complete their hands (I call this offensive odds).

          Next you need to know some general situation stats like flopping a set is ~8:1 against. Somewhere I have a link to a list of these but I'm too lazy to dig it up now. I'll post it later.

          Comment


          • #6
            aight thx man!

            Comment


            • #7
              The link below shows the odds of various situations you will face in HE games.

              http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by o0o0AcEo0o0 View Post
                Okay, I have never focussed really to much on odds and my % to hit a hand and what not. I want to learn this part of poker because I feel that this is something I need to improve to develop more as a player. I would like to know the "easiest" way to get a basic grasp on using math in my game. I see players sending links to sites that look like equations only a freakin rocket scientist would be able to figure out. I know the 2 and 4 rule, but I am kind of confused about the 2:1 or 5:1 and figuring out if I am a 2 to 1 under dog or favorite. Please help me develop a basic plan to get me started in the world of poker math! I have been playing solidly since feb of this year and have already turned $50 into more than $600 playing mtts and ring games, so I am not a loosing or break even player, but I do have room to grow! Thank you in advance for any advice or help that you give me! Ace- umbup:
                Odds % and EV All look at the same thing in different ways. They are not compatible. You need to pick one system and work with it. Odds are given in how big of a dog you are to make your hand. EV would be the most math intensive system you could use. Examples You have a flush draw on the flop what are the odds of making your hand by the turn? Outs = 9 Pot = $100 Your opponent bets $25 Pot odds = 125/25 = 5:1 2 4 rule 9(2)=18% We need to change our pot odds to a % so we can compare the two. 5:1 5+1=6 1/6=0.167 0.167(100)=16.7% You would make the call because your chance of winning is higher. Odds 52-5=47 47-9=38 38/9=4.22 so you are a 4.22:1 dog against making your hand and you have pot odds of 5:1 so you would make the call. EV Lets say we want to know if raising with our draw is a good play. EV = % fold (pot) + % call {[win % (amount win)] + [lose % (amount lose)]} Lets say our opponents range is AT+ and TT+ Call % = calling combos / total betting combos Total combos AK = 3(4) = 12 AQ = 3(4) = 12 AJ = 3(4) = 12 AT = 3(3) = 9 KK = 6 QQ = 6 JJ = 6 AA = 3 TT = 3 Total = 69 combos Lets say they'll 4 bet a raise with: AA = 3 TT = 3 AT = 9 AK = 12 AQ = 12 Total = 39 Call % = calling combos / total betting combos Call % = 39/69 = 0.565217 Folding % = 1-call % 1-0.565217 = 0.434783 Win % and lose % We'll use poker stove Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 68,310 games 0.005 secs 13,662,000 games/sec Board: Ac 2c Td Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 34.957% 34.96% 00.00% 23879 0.00 { 8c7c } Hand 1: 65.043% 65.04% 00.00% 44431 0.00 { TT+, ATs+, ATo+ } Amount win = the pot total with our bet. The pot is $100 and they bet $25. Lets say we are thinking of raising to $75 so 125+75=$200. We know the other player will not bluff. Pot = $125 Amount we can lose = our bet so $75. Now we put it all together. EV = % fold (pot) + % call {[win % (amount win)] + [lose % (amount lose)]} 0.434783(125) + 0.565217 {[0.34957(200)] + [0.65043(75)]} 54.3479 + 0.565217 {[0.34957(200)] + [0.65043(-75)]} 54.3479 + 0.565217 {69.914 + (-48.7823)} 54.3479 + 0.565217 {21.1317} 54.3479 + 11.944 66.2919 As you can see our play is +EV which means we make money on it.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
                  Next you need to know some general situation stats like flopping a set is ~8:1 against. .
                  The odds might be 8:1 but that doesn't mean he should call with those odds. If your just set mining then you need 15:1. That means you need to be able to make at least 15x what he has to call or more post flop on Ave....

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      nice r1 but how do you figure all this out while in a hand ? do you just keep practicing these calculations over and over again or something

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        When your first beginning to calculate your outs it seems like everything is a mess. Overtime/practicing they will start to become second nature to you. Like when you see a flush draw out there you will automatically you know 9outs 36% or 18% on turn or you flop an open ended straight draw you will know 8 outs(four in front, four in back) and wont have to calculate it 32% and 16%.

                        I suggest practice it every hand. Even hands that you have folded look at what cards you would have needed to hit your hand and calculate the outs and percentages until this becomes second nature to you.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          okay cool man i will give It a shot thx

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by o0o0AcEo0o0 View Post
                            nice r1 but how do you figure all this out while in a hand ? do you just keep practicing these calculations over and over again or something
                            I made a chart and remebered it. There are certain spots that come up a lot in poker I would start with those. You do need to be able to figure your outs.

                            EX

                            Inside Straight
                            outs = 4
                            1 card% = 9%
                            1 card odds = 10:1
                            2 card% = 17%
                            2card odds = 5:1

                            Open Straight
                            outs = 8
                            1 card% = 17
                            1 card odds = 4.7
                            2 card% = 32
                            2card odds = 2.2

                            Flush draw
                            outs = 9
                            1 card% = 19
                            1 card odds = 4.1
                            2 card% = 35
                            2card odds = 1.9

                            Inside Straight & one Overcard
                            Inside Straight & Two Overcards
                            Open Straight & One Overcard
                            Open Straight & Two Overcards
                            Flush & One Overcard
                            Flush & Two Overcards
                            Flush & Inside Straight
                            Flush & Open Straight
                            Set to Full House
                            Two Pair to Full House

                            ect


                            There's a chart on this link http://www.tightpoker.com/poker_odds.html

                            As a side note you should also know preflop odds and post flop odds are not the same.

                            Some preflop odds


                            pair vs smaller pair 4:1

                            pair vs higher cards 1.2:1

                            pair vs lower cards 4:1

                            high pair vs lower high cards 5.7:1

                            pair vs one higher and one lower card 2.3:1

                            pair vs dominated overcard 2.3:1

                            pair vs dominated undercard 9:1

                            high cards vs lower cards 1.5:1

                            high cards vs two inbetween 1.5:1

                            high ace vs dominated ace 3:1
                            Last edited by R1J1J; Fri Apr 15, 2011, 05:35 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I guess I could give a lesson

                              Terms

                              Odds = Chance of losing

                              Probability = Chance of winning

                              Equity = Your equity is basically the amount of the pot that ‘belongs’ to you based on the odds you have to win at a particular point in the hand

                              Out = any unseen card that, if drawn, will improve a player's hand to one that is likely to win.

                              EV = is used to describe the long-term average outcome of a given scenario.


                              Odds

                              odds are written as follows:

                              EX:

                              4:1 or 4 to 1

                              In poker you always set odds to one.

                              What do odds mean?

                              EX:

                              4:1

                              You have a 1 out of 5 chance of winning (you add the left side to the right side).

                              EX

                              14:4

                              14 = How many times something won't happen.

                              4 = How many times something will happen.

                              You want the right side to be one.

                              14/4:4/4

                              3.5:1

                              Changing odds to probability

                              4:1

                              add the left and right side together

                              4+1=5

                              put a one over that number

                              1/5

                              1/5=0.20

                              0.20(100)=20%

                              Changing probability to odds

                              20%

                              20/100=0.20

                              put a one under that number

                              0.20/1.00

                              bottom - top

                              1.00-0.20=0.80

                              put that number on the left and the original number on the right

                              0.80:0.20

                              now set to one

                              0.80/0.20:0.20/0.20

                              4:1

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X

                              X Cookies Information

                              We have placed cookies on your computer to improve your experience on our website. You can change your cookie settings at any time. Otherwise, we'll assume you're OK to continue.