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Poker Math Probabilities 1/19/2013

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  • Poker Math Probabilities 1/19/2013

    We have a bag with 9 red marble, 2 blue marbles , and 3 green marbles in it . What is the probability of randomly selecting a non - blue marble from the bag.

    total possibilities = 9+2+3 = 14 possibilities
    2 blue marbles or 12 non blue marbles

    so probability = 12 / 14 divide by 2/2 so probability is 6/7

    what is probability of drawing a green marble ?

  • #2
    this is too easy chris.. 3/14 probability to draw a green one and since 3 is prime and 14 cant be divided by 3 this ratio cant be reduced. so 3/14 to draw green we can convert to a percentage though by simply dividing the numerator by the denominator.. or 3/ 14 we get .214 (again rounded) or 21.4% chance to draw green, which for poker discussion purposes is close enough to 21% to call it that.
    some folks find ratios easier and some find %ages easier. just depends on how individuals brains fire i guess. ( synapsis?)
    and just for the non math peeps out there ( / ) means divided by
    Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Jan 19, 2012, 05:44 PM.
    May the tinfoil protect you. MT

    Comment


    • #3
      they get harder

      researching them now
      Last edited by XXChris123; Thu Jan 19, 2012, 06:16 PM.

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      • #4
        yeah... how about adding 1 or 2 more bags or marbles...

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Keldraco View Post
          yeah... how about adding 1 or 2 more bags or marbles...
          ya how bout a bag of 52 marbles in 4 different colors and 13 different sizes..
          May the tinfoil protect you. MT

          Comment


          • #6
            coin flips
            P(HH ) whats probability to get heads and then heads again
            lets start with one flip and then keep adding one more
            P(H) = 1/2 or 50%
            coin can be either heads or tails
            P(HH) 1st flip = 1/2 P = H , 2nd flip = 1/2P = H
            so P (HH) = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4
            so P ( HHH) = 1/2 x1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8
            P(HHHH) = 4 heads in a row is 1/16
            P ( HHHHH ) = 1/2 to the 5th power or 1/32
            P (HHHHHH) = 1/2 to the 6th power or 1/64

            each coin flip is always a P of 1/2 a flipped coin has no memory
            so 12 heads in a row has no bearing on outcome of 13th flip as an individual flip but as a cumulative effect it does. :P
            a flipped coin has no memory but probability does :P
            .
            .
            this is why some idiot in a large field of a MTT can seem to magically win 14 hands in a row with any 2 cards
            Well you have 6000 players out of 6000 players a few are gonna get hot streaks if they choose to play any two cards . It's all a part of the probability matrix or probability tree
            Last edited by XXChris123; Thu Jan 19, 2012, 07:07 PM.

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            • #7
              ...... duplicate
              May the tinfoil protect you. MT

              Comment


              • #8
                Even I have weaknesses in math and this is just one area where things are not crystal clear to me ,
                but I'm working on it today , and will for next few days . I feel that you can create a formula for all decisions in poker kinda a unified field theory of poker . Thats my goal , I can see it mentally but cant express in math yet. I can break it up in parts though. Which is part of my goal here. Game theory and probability are great concepts , the more you understand probability the more intuition you will have in making proper decisions. This will be a long post I think .

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                • #9
                  ok probailty of 4 heads in a row we determined earlier was
                  P ( HHHH ) 1/2 to the 4th power or 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16
                  there are 16 possible outcomes and 1/16 of the time we will get 4 heads in a row

                  what happens when we flip the coin 5 times
                  thats 1/2 to the 5th power 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 x 1/2 = 1/8 x 1/2 = 1/16 x 1/2 = 1/32
                  so 5 coin flips has 32 possibilities

                  whats the odds of getting exactly 1 heads only in 5 flips

                  T T T T H
                  T T T H T
                  T T H T T
                  T H T T T
                  H T T T T

                  out of 32 possibilities only 5 of those contain 1 heads
                  1/32+1/32+1/32+1/32+1/32 = 5/32

                  now heres a tough one
                  flip the coin 5 times
                  whats the probability that we will not get exactly one heads

                  .
                  .
                  Last edited by XXChris123; Thu Jan 19, 2012, 08:29 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by XXChris123 View Post

                    out of 32 possibilities only 5 of those contain 1 heads
                    1/32+1/32+1/32+1/32+1/32 = 5/32

                    now heres a tough one
                    flip the coin 5 times
                    whats the probability that we will not get at least exactly one heads
                    .
                    .
                    at least or exactly. you pick.
                    May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by XXChris123 View Post
                      I feel that you can create a formula for all decisions in poker kinda a unified field theory of poker . Thats my goal , I can see it mentally but cant express in math yet. I can break it up in parts though.
                      I think its called Expected Value. Good decisions are +EV.

                      The biggest problem is that poker is a game of incomplete information so you only have estimates, some with large error bars, for a number of parameters.

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                      • #12
                        I reworded it try again. Meanwhile lets look at a probability tree for coin flips
                        1st flip is either H or T
                        HT = 2 P
                        HT HT = 4 P
                        HT HT HT HT = 8 P
                        HT HT HT HT HT HT HT HT = 16 P
                        we see a pattern of 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, 256 , and so on
                        limited by how this text works
                        there are other patterns in there as well

                        each branch is this
                        ..........H..... .. ..T......
                        ........H.T.. ...H.T
                        ......H.T..H.T....H.T..H.T....and so on with only 1 event for HHH and one event for TTT
                        Last edited by XXChris123; Thu Jan 19, 2012, 08:49 PM.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by XXChris123 View Post
                          I reworded it try again. Meanwhile lets look at a probability tree for coin flips 1st flip is either H or T HT = 2 P HT HT = 4 P HT HT HT HT = 8 P HT HT HT HT HT HT HT HT = 16 P we see a pattern of 2,4,8,16,32,64,128, 256 , and so on limited by how this text works there are other patterns in there as well each branch is this ..........H..... .. ..T...... ........H.T.. ...H.T ......H.T..H.T....H.T..H.T....and so on with only 1 event for HHH and one event for TTT
                          You should have a look at finite math(with business and/or digital applications) for the construction method of truth sets.....I think your coin example would be clearer if you used a spread sheet style application. This outlines the total possible outcomes for set variables in an easily visualized style. single coin : N flips=X possibilities ..=or 1 flip = 2 outcomes......H..T 2 flips =4 outcomes....HH..HT..TH..TT 3 flips =8 outcomes....HHH..HHT..HTH..THH..TTH..THT..HTT...TT T ...... base 2 math.....the trouble is when you start to include multiple coin flips "pattern specific".... you rapidly begin to deal with an amount of data that is overwhelming even if you're rainman....it drove Cantor insane.......and he's considered one of the finest Mathematical minds ever. ( ...The Chinese have a story about it......give me half your kingdom or a chess board of rice grains doubled on each square and starting with 1 grain....if all the matter in the universe was rice you would get just over half way through the 64 squares on the chess board...) If you start with a finite set 13 ranks 4 suits....and want to know 5 card combo's using 2,3,4,5,6&7 cards with the original 2 being hole cards (and u can guess the rest lol) then you need to run exclusive and /or sets for all the various combos as dictated by the original 2 cards ....it can be done using numerical sets algebra (Mandelbrot , Pythagoras, Newton and numerous others...) but the work /value is not a good return (especially given that it's already been done)...as there are too many unquantifiable influences during play (as previously pointed out). Anyhow good luck with the unified theory of poker....but you know if it does exist and you find it and make it public then there is no point in playing any more is there ????? LOLOL umbup: cheers r0ck

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                          • #14
                            if in fact there are 5 out of 32 chances to flip exactly 1 heads in 5 flips (which there are), doesn't that mean that the ratio for fliping any other combo but exactly 1 heads would be 27/32 or the remainder of the total possibilities? high school algebra II was as far as i got, too busy gettin stoned i guess cough, cough
                            May the tinfoil protect you. MT

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              well done you got it

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