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OMG! Bad beats in Poker!

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  • OMG! Bad beats in Poker!

    A bad beat is where the statistical favorite loses against the underdog hand. (It's very important to take a closer look at the definition. If something has a low chance of happening, it does have a chance of happening, so it's not impossible!) The loser gets the bad beat, and the winner obviously dishes it out.

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  • #2
    But if it happens 90% of the time then what is that
    here are some examples over the last week,

    KK V 45 ........ flop 37K turn A river 6
    QQ v K Ten ......flop Q4A turn 3 river J
    AA v 88 .........flop 39Q turn 2 river 8
    etc etc etc....

    it gets a bit boring when you start to expect to lose 90% of the time,
    it a suprise when your hand holds up,

    i know its an old argument....

    but it happens a lot less live.....
    but hey what would i know


    • #3
      Originally posted by Marjorie dbi View Post
      i know its an old argument....

      but it happens a lot less live.....
      Actually, no, it doesn't.

      It is a very common misconception however. It happens with the same frequencies if the shuffle is randomized. Our human perception however thinks it happens more online because of the massive difference in volume.

      I'll give you an example. Let's say hypothetically you will get a bad beat like one of the ones you mentioned every 100 hands or so (you can pick any arbitrary number for the frequency, I just pick 100 to illustrate the point).

      You got to play a live tourney or cash game at your favorite casino. Let's say you play a 4 hour session. During this time you will get somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 hands per hour. (That's an average of 2 minutes per hand, some will be shorter like blind steals, others will be longer). So over the course of your 4 hour session at the frequency we assigned above, we would expect 1 such bad beat to occur to us having received 120 hands of poker roughly.

      Let's say you play 4 tables. You will get in the neighborhood of 80 hands per hour on each table. You get so many more hands due to the speed of play and non-existent time for shuffling and physical dealing, awarding pots, etc. Let's say you play a 4 hour session again. So in this case we are going to receive roughly 1280 poker hands (80x4hours per table, x4 tables). At the assigned frequency we would expect about 12 such bad beats.

      So although both are occurring at the same exact frequency, what happens in our human brain is it says last night I played live and only got bad beat once, today I'm getting bad beat like crazy I count 12 times! That never happens live!!!!

      It's a fault of our human perception. It actually does happen live, it's just that to get to 1280 hands seen we would have to play our live table for over 42 hours so our brain is saying to us oh yeah, sure I've taken bad beats live but nothing like this online game they happen way to often here something must be wrong! Sure, what's wrong is, in many cases players lack of understanding of what I just said above, and in everyone's case our human perception bias whispering in our ear.
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      • #4
        Hi Dave
        kinda agree with some of what you have said,

        but i keep records of all tourneys etc,
        Live if i sucked out to AA v QJ off i dust myself off,mark it down on my phone,
        and buy in again or play a cash game,
        so what i'm saying is i have very accurate records of my wins/losses etc,
        but here we go,
        online my stats are bad so bad i don't play real money tourneys cos i don't trust the cards to fall within the pot odds/ variance etc,
        every now and again i'll play a 2c or 10c for a bit of fun,
        and i know the field is full of all in muppets,
        and every one of um i'm 90% plus in favor and i get rivered...

        So we are gonna have to disagree,
        see ya at the training


        • #5
          Hi Marjorie

          I've been through some really bad prolonged spells of bad beats and bad runs so I understand your pain. The way our brains are wired is that it they are biased towards remembering the bad beats but 'forget' the times now and again where you did get lucky. You will always remember the bad beats more vividly. I suppose the problem is that if you are playing well then you will be the one more often than not getting your money in good and getting drawn out on etc, and not the other way round.

          But I can assure you it is not fixed, your luck will run at average over a very large sample of hands as statistically it should.



          • #6
            Hi Steve,
            i've had bad runs everyone has,
            but i try not to be in the situation where i create a bad beat if you see what i mean,
            like i said earlier,
            in some spots i am so far ahead,that only one card can make the villians hand and it happens,
            i do not think it's fixed at all,
            but can we say the more money in the pot the better the rake


            • #7
              Try this bad beat for size

              So I was in a home cash game a few years ago now.

              I sat down with 100 UK pounds and was playing ok ,most of the night

              We had various dealers but one guy lost all his cash

              and some of the players paid him tips to deal

              then all of a sudden he was back in the game with 100 quid

              and he started winning and playing lots of power raises


              fold fold

              it was now about 4 am

              then I got A 4 off after loads of bad hands - not great but worth a call since he was re raising pre flop lots.


              23 5 rainbow - flopped almost the nuts only hand i lose to is 4 6 no way he could have that

              anyway bet raise - re raise re raise ... all in all in on the flop

              now there is 600 quid in the POt

              so wait for it

              so turn the cards over

              He has AA V my 12345 straight

              I ve won ????????


              turn - 2

              river- 2

              gees a bad beat and half

              full house to AA - .....
              about 1 in 120


              • #8
                It's the norm on pokerstars. Get used to it lol
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                • #9
                  If you feel like you are on a tilt from a bad beat then just relax, breathe in and out 3 times, then punch the monitor.


                  • #10
                    I've had plenty of bad beats, to the point where I don't believe I've won until the chips are shipped towards me. We forget the suck outs we win on too quickly. This week I was playing on PS cash and had JJ, I ended up all in with an aggressive player (who simply could not have it all the time). We are all-in on the flop and the cards are face up, they have 88 vs my JJ - EXCELLENT! The turn is an 8, GODDAMMIT!! The river is a Jack ... oh, that's nice. Anyone who thinks it is rigged should search for bad beat videos online. They happen live and there's plenty captured on camera.


                    • #11
                      Statistically, pocket AA should win 80% of the time when all the chips are in pre-flop. Seems I lose about 80% of the time, though, when I am in that position whether it's against pocket cowboys or lower pocket pair (e.g. 66) that triples up or some donk bet that draws something awesome. I understand you can't win every time but one would think over time the averages would be close to the odds. It is getting to where I am going to be afraid to get my chips in pre-flop and fold AA if the opp raises significantly.


                      • #12

                        so my last 6 all in's in a row so consecutively on 1 site I won hands but never an all in for all my chips I push and ppl folded but these are genuinely 6 showdowns IN A ROW one day same site different tournies
                        WHAT ARE THE ODDS ? I wonder literally the worst run I had playing poker so far im pretty sure I was 90% + or even 95%+ on 4 of these hands on turn at point of all in .. and still lost showdown after showdown after 1h break after showdown after showdown after 2 h break after showdown

                        hand 1 AK flop 7h Ad Ks im all in mid tournie called by 7 10 turn 10 river 10 I lose
                        hand 2 QQ vs 22 vs 99 flop 10,6,3 , bet huge 3 way call turn 2 river 9 im all in on flop ahead
                        hand 3 all in with flush Ac2Clubs on turn 5c Kc 8s flop Qs turn I push all in in get called by 88 turn 5h lose to fh
                        hand 4 flush KcQc flop7c3c7s turn 8c im all in called and lose to Jc river and lose to straight flush 9c 10c
                        hand 5 basically im 95% on flop 98% on turn and 0% on the river yer dreaded one or 2 outer 2 mad to rember the details after I just been one outerd the very previous hand just when I though the bs cant get any worse it did and that's when I called surely cheat site ? new player win algorithm
                        hand 6 aa vs jj lose to trip jacks on turn or river after all in on flop for all there chips late in last tourney I played that day with k on flop total dickhead call but anyway he could be n00b pot committed so I expect that 75% of the time such bad players

                        so yer I was wondering what are the odd of this happening and 2 I believe the place I was playing is rigged to let new players win as I was 3 months old player there and lost these hand due to a huge influx of new players one weekend due to a new bonus offer on the site there are 250 regs and im sure that was the reason for this total bs 500 players logged on that day normally no more then 250 360 at once many new ppl in chat

                        someone told my my ev was like +3 or - 3 depends what way you look at it and ev should never really pass 2

                        what are your genuine opinions players I have about 10 years online exp and as I played on hand after hand all in for new players chips a massive favroute I began to wonder when will it end well after 6 I gave up I alwayas wonder what whould happen if I bought into the finaly 20£ tournie that day but I lost enough already despite cashing with one of them losses


                        • #13
                          Is it rigged, is not rigged? ..... It's a debate as old as online poker itself. Come back with a bigger sample size, say your last 5,000 all-ins, then we can look at stats. 6 is so meager a number it's meaningless. And no, online poker is not rigged.
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                          • #14
                            Hey all can someone explain what i did wrong here thanks ! wrong bett sizes ? 77% on the turn


                            • #15
                              you did nothing wrong...… happens

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