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Bad beat or proof of clairvoyance?

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  • Bad beat or proof of clairvoyance?


  • #2
    You have about 40% equity here, this isn't even close to a bad beat. You're flipping against the AK, and add the T7s to that and you're not in particularly good shape (even if you're a slight favourite cEV wise). As played, gotta get it in once you raise, just wrong result. umbup: .....
    Last edited by Feskprins; Wed Nov 20, 2013, 09:28 PM. Reason: cake and elephants

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    • #3
      JJ is the favorite to lose. It's only a bad beat when you're a huge favorite.. not when you're an underdog and expect to lose.

      John (JWK24)
      Super-Moderator



      6 Time Bracelet Winner


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      • #4
        Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
        It's only a bad beat when you're a huge favorite.. not when you're an underdog and expect to lose.
        John (JWK24)
        ^ this ^

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        • #5
          Preflop JJ AK 10 7
          43.7% 36.23 19.84%


          Flop 61.56% 2.82% 35.61%

          Turn 21.33% 0% 78.67%

          River 0% 0% 100%


          Obviously because AK was in the pot the equity was way lower. If it was just JJ vs 10 7 it would be 4 to 1 odds that JJ wins in this spot. AK was basically drawing dead on the flop and JJ advantage over 10 7 was cut in half.

          I'd have to categorize this as a bad beat cause villain_5 had absolutely no right being in that pot to begin with yet he beat two premium hands by the turn. Just a lucky fish with a suited semi connected hand spewing his chip lead and getting super lucky

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          • #6
            I think people's definition of a bad beat is way too generous. I don't think it can ever be a bad beat if you're all-in pre-flop ... ever. Even in the absolutely best circumstances: your AA vs one opponent with 27o with their suit matching your AA suits to eliminate 4 card flushes - you're still under 90% favourite to win. 1 in 10 you will lose. That's not a bad beat. Your circumstance is even less so.

            My idea of bad beat may be influenced by casinos who set up bad beat jackpots in which usually medium range quads or better have to be beat. THAT's a bad beat!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
              JJ is the favorite to lose. It's only a bad beat when you're a huge favorite.. not when you're an underdog and expect to lose.

              John (JWK24)
              Let me get this right, when you are dealt JJ you first exclaim "Oh dear, I'm a favorite to lose this hand"?

              Had I known there was someone playing with AKo in the same hand, I would often fold pre but I couldn't have cared less for the BBs range as he had shown himself to be the person who believes this is a game that isn't over till the River and had a VPIP over 85. I had watched him suckout to others and build that chip lead but with JJ I was happy to take my chances.

              I cannot fathom why someone would call shoves with T7s there.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by 85FastLane View Post
                I think people's definition of a bad beat is way too generous. I don't think it can ever be a bad beat if you're all-in pre-flop ... ever. Even in the absolutely best circumstances: your AA vs one opponent with 27o with their suit matching your AA suits to eliminate 4 card flushes - you're still under 90% favourite to win. 1 in 10 you will lose. That's not a bad beat. Your circumstance is even less so.

                My idea of bad beat may be influenced by casinos who set up bad beat jackpots in which usually medium range quads or better have to be beat. THAT's a bad beat!
                I know the odds Lane, but are you saying had your AA shove been called by 27 and lost you would nod and tell yourself yeah he had 10ish%? Thanks for clearing how it can never be a bad beat all in, I did not know this.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Killeraxa89 View Post
                  Just a lucky fish with a suited semi connected hand spewing his chip lead and getting super lucky
                  That's what I was thinking.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by IBNash View Post
                    Let me get this right, when you are dealt JJ you first exclaim "Oh dear, I'm a favorite to lose this hand"?

                    Had I known there was someone playing with AKo in the same hand, I would often fold pre but I couldn't have cared less for the BBs range as he had shown himself to be the person who believes this is a game that isn't over till the River and had a VPIP over 85. I had watched him suckout to others and build that chip lead but with JJ I was happy to take my chances.

                    I cannot fathom why someone would call shoves with T7s there.
                    There's the problem. JJ is an underdog in a 3-way pot against even a standard 20% range. The key is that it is a multiway pot and that I absolutely need to be aware of BOTH ranges. Discounting someone's range, especially in a multiway pot is a huge mistake. Most hands play much worse in multiway pots and that's especially true with marginal made hands... there's a reason that many players (including me) think that JJ is the absolute hardest hand to play in NLHE.

                    John (JWK24)
                    Super-Moderator



                    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Feskprins View Post
                      You have about 40% equity here, this isn't even close to a bad beat. You're flipping against the AK, and add the T7s to that and you're not in particularly good shape (even if you're a slight favourite cEV wise). As played, gotta get it in once you raise, just wrong result. umbup: .....
                      Right, so pre flop equity is the sole determination of a bad beat? Replace JJ with AA there, and the J on the flop with A, if he had beated my AA trips and other Villain's AKo by making a flush, then it'd be a bad beat?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by IBNash View Post

                        Had I known there was someone playing with AKo in the same hand, I would often fold pre but I couldn't have cared less for the BBs range as he had shown himself to be the person who believes this is a game that isn't over till the River and had a VPIP over 85. I had watched him suckout to others and build that chip lead but with JJ I was happy to take my chances.

                        Are you saying that if the cards were face up, you would fold your JJ in a HU situation v AK ?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by IBNash View Post
                          Right, so pre flop equity is the sole determination of a bad beat? Replace JJ with AA there, and the J on the flop with A, if he had beated my AA trips and other Villain's AKo by making a flush, then it'd be a bad beat?
                          I never said pre flop equity determines a bad beat. Quite the contrary, you can't run into a bad beat if you're all in preflop. Losing with AA vs AK is the worst you can do but you'll still lose 10% of the time. And it still wouldn't be a bad beat if we alter the things you mentioned. If you go all in preflop, THAT'S the equities that count. It doesn't matter if you flop quads and then lose to runner runner straight flush. The equities you have when you effectively go all in is what counts, then HOW you win or lose doesn't matter. However, if you flop quads and THEN go all in and lose to running straight flush, then yes, I would call it a bad beat. Furthermore, I think you're too obsessed with bad beats. It seems like you label most beats or any time you get outdrawn as bad beats. There's no such thing as a bad beat in the game mechanics, it's something we made up. Another observation I've made is that you always seem to shift focus to the villain playing bad rather than looking at the mistakes you made. If you plug that, I'm sure you can improve a lot. umbup: ....

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                          • #14
                            JJ in this situation was so easy to play. Now with a deeper stack its not avisable to go allin preflop with JJ unless you're risking a small portion of your chips. Never ever folding in this situation

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                            • #15

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