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Standard equity beat, horrible spot.

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  • Standard equity beat, horrible spot.

    Only 60% equity pre, but come on, look at this:

    PokerStars - $10+$1|25000/50000 Ante 6250 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Hero (BB): 25.63 BB
    UTG: 70.02 BB (VPIP: 30.30, PFR: 24.24, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
    MP: 58.91 BB (VPIP: 31.43, PFR: 25.71, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 35)
    CO: 44.64 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 25.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
    BTN: 54.79 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 21.88, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 33)
    SB: 8.12 BB (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 9.38, 3Bet Preflop: 11.76, Hands: 33)

    6 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 2.25 BB) Hero has Q:diamond: A:spade:

    UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 25.51 BB and is all-in, fold, CO calls 23.51 BB

    Flop: (54.27 BB, 2 players) 6:heart: T:club: 8:spade:

    Turn: (54.27 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:

    River: (54.27 BB, 2 players) 7:club:

    Hero shows Q:diamond: A:spade: (One Pair, Queens) (Pre 58%, Flop 59%, Turn 91%)
    CO shows 4:heart: 5:heart: (Straight, Eight High) (Pre 42%, Flop 41%, Turn 9%)
    CO wins 54.27 BB

    22k up top and he risks 25bb with 45hh vs a 3-bet shove over an under the gun raise.

    My mind is blown.

  • #2
    Why shove pre? A pot-sized raise doesn't pot commit me, so I'd make a std raise.

    John (JWK24)
    Super-Moderator



    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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    • #3
      Originally posted by doomasiggy View Post

      My mind is blown.
      Mine too,
      Why would someone go all in with 25.51BB with AQo??

      You gambled...so did he
      Last edited by Sandtrap777; Sat Nov 16, 2013, 04:45 PM.

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      • #4
        Well yeah you shouldnt shove AQ with so many BB however you got it in good but couldn't hold until the famous river

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        • #5
          Why shove pre? A pot-sized raise doesn't pot commit me, so I'd make a std raise.
          Pot sized raise is almost a third of our stack. And what are we doing when the flop comes Kxx or 879, one and doneing? Then we've donked off 1/2 our stack with the blinds about to go up.

          Why would someone go all in with 25.51BB with AQo??
          Squeeze shoving AQ 25bb deep there is so standard. Look at dudes stats, guys playing over 20% of hands UTG, he folds so much and we're ahead/flipping against a lot of the stuff he calls. When they fold there, and they fold a lot, we pick up 10bb without ever seeing a flop.

          In fact the more I think about it the more I hate not 3-bet shoving. 3-betting to 8bb means that we give the people left to act at the least 2:1 odds to call, better if it goes multiway, and 3-betting to >8bb means that we end up committing ourselves regardless. Meanwhile we know that they can call light, we know that they fold more than half of their range (or at least they should be folding more than half of their range); it's a non turbo so 25bb isn't actually that deep and we know that even when they call we're ahead/flipping against a lot of the stuff that they call with (AJ/KQ/99-JJ).

          TLDR; we 3-bet shove here because it's easily profitable.
          Last edited by doomasiggy; Sat Nov 16, 2013, 12:22 PM.

          Comment


          • #6
            I had to go and search some info that you should of supplied There was only 49 players left out of 17,094 You were in the money, therefore gunning for 1st Average stack was about 21bb At this point, STATS barely have any weight Being above average stack, a 3Bet of 3x would be a normal play, but if you're gunning for first and are satisfied with $256 for a $10 tournament, than all-in is also a good play. The same applies to the other player, so he played it the same way as you, going for the glory. Nice Cash umbup:

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
              The same applies to the other player, so he played it the same way as you, going for the glory.
              I'm genuinely curious now, why do you think calling 45s to a 3-bet shove here is equivalent to 3-bet shoving AQ vs loose players with money in the middle?

              Also, shouldn't we always be gunning for first ignoring ICM spots?

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by doomasiggy View Post
                I'm genuinely curious now, why do you think calling 45s to a 3-bet shove here is equivalent to 3-bet shoving AQ vs loose players with money in the middle?

                Also, shouldn't we always be gunning for first ignoring ICM spots?
                Very simple, to my knowledge, regular or good players will build up a pot with good hands to get value. By shoving, you don't have QQ+, you have A high or K high, so I'm almost at 50% favorite (40%).
                If he's gunning for first and he's satisfied with $256 for a $10 tournament, than all-in, besides he's got you covered. I often seen way worst from top players.

                As for always gunning for first, it DEPENDS
                First, is in the money
                Then I'll go for first, but it depends on stack size, other players stack, notes on players

                Just my 2 cents

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                  Very simple, to my knowledge, regular or good players will build up a pot with good hands to get value. By shoving, you don't have QQ+, you have A high or K high, so I'm almost at 50% favorite (40%).
                  Err, what? Since when did people not 3-bet jam QQ+ 25bb deep vs an UTG open? If we were like 30bb+ effective then yeah fine but 25 with two players in is a spot where we either call, shove or fold. Largely because we aren't deep enough that we can c-bet that often. QQ is the nut worst hand of the three premiums to do this with as well, since we know for a fact that they call a lot of their Kx and Ax range if I 3-bet to 8bb; and when you 3-bet Q at least one overcard hits the board close to 50% of the time. I'm not gonna 3-bet QQ to like 5bb here and give people great odds to set mine, that's just silly. You also can't just presume there are no pairs in someone's range because they jam 25bb over a minraise pre, even if we assume they never have QQ+; there are 8 combos of TT/JJ which crush you and suited broadways which also crush you. And if you think the BB is completely bluffing with suited connectors and stuff then he can also have A5 in his range, which again, crushes you, and even more pocket pairs which also crush you.

                  As for always gunning for first, it DEPENDS
                  First, is in the money
                  Then I'll go for first, but it depends on stack size, other players stack, notes on players

                  Just my 2 cents
                  Aside from crazy ICM spots like we're 2bb deep and there are 3 players all in behind, or where we're in a tournament where the average player is miles better than us like, I dunno, the super tues or deep in a WCOOP, we should always gun for top three at least. Because otherwise we play scared money and end up folding perfectly valuable spots for no reason.
                  Last edited by doomasiggy; Sat Nov 16, 2013, 07:23 PM.

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                  • #10
                    A 3-bet to 7BB doesn't pot-commit me here nor does it give any opp the right odds to setmine.. as not a single opp has 15X in their stack.

                    John (JWK24)
                    Super-Moderator



                    6 Time Bracelet Winner


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                    • #11
                      And how much are you cbetting? Because as I said above, they don't fold when we raise to 7bb, so assuming one caller you're investing at least 15bb, not 7.
                      Last edited by doomasiggy; Sat Nov 16, 2013, 07:28 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        If only one opp in the pot, 1/2 pot normally... but here it would pot-commit me, so I'm shoving a favorable flop.
                        If the flop is bad for me, then since I'm not pot-committed, I can get off the hand. I don't want to be married to the hand just because it's a pocket pair... if I'm beat, I need to muck it.

                        John (JWK24)
                        Super-Moderator



                        6 Time Bracelet Winner


                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Why MUST everyone Cbet?
                          There is such a thing as CHECK and re-evaluate
                          Especially if you miss the flop

                          There's no such thing as a standard play, you need to adjust

                          GL in future tournaments

                          PS. 1 big win doesn't make a player a specialist

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                            Why MUST everyone Cbet?
                            There is such a thing as CHECK and re-evaluate
                            Especially if you miss the flop

                            There's no such thing as a standard play, you need to adjust

                            GL in future tournaments

                            PS. 1 big win doesn't make a player a specialist
                            *Shrug* never said it did, just that shoving here is fine.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                              Why MUST everyone Cbet?
                              There is such a thing as CHECK and re-evaluate
                              Especially if you miss the flop

                              There's no such thing as a standard play, you need to adjust

                              GL in future tournaments

                              PS. 1 big win doesn't make a player a specialist

                              yep...what he said....hiccup

                              Cheers All
                              Poker Rule #1....Never listen to me...hiccup

                              7 Time Bracelet Winner


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