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Is this a maths bad beat - pot odds and stuff

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  • Is this a maths bad beat - pot odds and stuff

    Is there such a thing as a mathematical bad beat?

    I'm thinking this is not a bad beat because over many trials this line is still +EV.

    Or is it?

    Looks like about 4 : 1 pots odds and I only need evens for a >>flush draw plus two over cards<<

  • #2
    Not a bad beat,totally agree with the call here though. The price you're getting (you're actually closer to 5-1 pot odds then you are to 4-1 here...) this is a call all day long in my book.

    We have the nut draw,there are no pairs on board so a boat isn't a worry as of yet,nothing connects for a straight...this is all systems go for a call here.

    We only need to be right a little over 22% of the time here to break even and our hand equity is 46.5% when the chips went in the middle,so easily a +EV call.

    BTW you only have one over here Forrest,the Kings,Aces are shared. However when the 10 hits the turn any Jack makes Broadway for you,so that's an additional 4 outs you forgot about.

    This is one of those spots where we may be behind in hand equity when the chips go in but we're so far ahead on pot equity that the call will be wildly profitable for us over time. Given these pot odds of course.

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    • #3
      Thanks Moxie Pip, Was just having a - Why I never hit my draw when all my chips are in the middle? I understand all you say apart from the AK are shared? Is this because it's a 3-bet pot pre and we need to range the villain with maybe an A or K in their calling range on Q high flop? It felt ok to call and happy I got the numbers correct in my head. umbup:

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Moxie Pip View Post
        Not a bad beat,totally agree with the call here though. The price you're getting (you're actually closer to 5-1 pot odds then you are to 4-1 here...) this is a call all day long in my book.
        Hey Forrest!

        I agree with Moxie. I'm calling this all day long. Even if the opp has AQ or KQ, I have 3 outs for an overcard plus the flush draw.

        John (JWK24)
        Super-Moderator



        6 Time Bracelet Winner


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        • #5
          Originally posted by ForrestFive View Post
          Thanks Moxie Pip, Was just having a - Why I never hit my draw when all my chips are in the middle? I understand all you say apart from the AK are shared? Is this because it's a 3-bet pot pre and we need to range the villain with maybe an A or K in their calling range on Q high flop? It felt ok to call and happy I got the numbers correct in my head. umbup:
          Hey Forrest,just to clear it up...not the AK shared,the ACE shared. You said in your OP that you had the flush draw and TWO overs (which to the board,which is what your basing any call off of...the board and your perceived range of the villains hand...IS correct,you have two overs...). I'm just pointing out then when we do our calculations on outs and odds when the hands are turned up we see that we both have and Ace,so that is no longer an out for us. My calculation on the profitability of your call was made with all information,thus the hands turned face up,factored in. As to the feeling like our draws never hit (no matter how many outs we have) and the ops draws never miss (no matter how few outs they have)...yep, I hear ya brother. Been there,done that,got the t-shirt. Just keep getting it in good and watch those Sklansky bucks become real bucks. umbup:
          Last edited by Moxie Pip; Wed Feb 13, 2013, 11:49 PM.

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          • #6
            Thanks for clearing that up Moxie Pip.

            Reading your first post again paying attention to the commas ...,the Kings,Aces are shared.

            Must learn to read.

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