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2 outer on the River

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  • 2 outer on the River

    After a great month last month, I seem to be on a bad run of variance. I haven't posted a bad beat in a while, but thought I'd share this one. ps. The worst part of the whole thing was that he called my raise with 83o.
    Last edited by joy7108; Wed Jun 20, 2012, 05:32 AM. Reason: add ps
    Bracelet Winner



  • #2
    Out of curiosity what was this in? Reason I ask is that were you to semi-bluff him big off the flop bet that's maybe the one thing I might do differently here,but even that's kind of meh. Maybe I wouldn't as well. LOL,WHICH call with the 83o? Pre is bad but the shove by you on the turn is flat out TELLING him (provided he's not too busy licking the windows clean...) that he's on,AT BEST,a 2-outer because you are repping the 4 as well as a big diamond (unless he sees you as being as dense as he is he can't really ever put you on his other out...the 9d...here). So yes,he had a 2 outer but was perfectly willing to put his chips in knowing that a 2 outer (or at least he should have known) is the BEST CASE SCENARIO for him. Given the level of idiocy that requires and looking at the stacks versus these blinds and having a basic idea of what you play I'll guess that this was the .25 ($100 added),yes? Stick to what you do Joyski and keep the study and analysis going. You got the goods,the smarts and the attitude. You'll be fine. umbup: Good luck,better decisions...

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Moxie! The game was a 90 player KO SNG, second level. I'm kinda out of practice with the SNG's, I've been playing mostly MTT's and Women's League games.

      It was the call pre-flop that I thought was crazy, who calls a raise with 83o lol?? Added him to my buddy list and hope to see him again soon. I just thought the whole hand was really bizarre from start to ugly finish.

      Thanks for your reply, it put a big smile on my face!

      Bracelet Winner


      Comment


      • #4
        thanks for sharing this hand. I've been at the same table as you in many a Women's League tourney and I know you are a consistently good player. There are always going to be players who bet on trash, or just bet to see the flop. On the other hand .... only those who become skilled at this game and can weather the bad beats and or downswings, are the ones who make it to the top 10%,,,, and I put you in the latter. See you in the Womens League Div, Debs

        Comment


        • #5
          hi joy preflop the opp was spot on in his/her call as the other opps give your villain pot odds.

          Same on the turn,the opp was never going to fold for the size of the bet he /she had left to put in,when all ready they had commited and with a made hand.

          Comment


          • #6
            Hi Joy I don't like the pre-flop raise myself. You had 4 players with over 3k and two of those had over 4k (including the villain) all while still only at 15/30 blinds. A 3BB raise at this blind level is just not respected by most in these types of games and with the chips these players had it's likely they have already proven themselves to be loose/donkish. Instead of just raising according to the blinds maybe consider raising according to the stacks who are left to act or already in the pot. This may or may not have scared you villain off the pot for as i said according to his early stack up he's shown that he is willing to loose call. Post flop if he stayed in i feel a 2/3 pot bet might have done the trick but.... he is donkish so who knows really besides him. As it played the turn seemed fine to me. I might have not shoved there because of pessimism from the many suck outs i've seen the last few months but again any bet you make on the turn has no other option but to lay down half or more of your stack or go all-in anyways so maybe the turn shove was best. evil:
            Join My Home Game Club - The Joker's Wild

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
              hi joy preflop the opp was spot on in his/her call as the other opps give your villain pot odds.

              Same on the turn,the opp was never going to fold for the size of the bet he /she had left to put in,when all ready they had commited and with a made hand.
              Hi holdemace!

              EVERY single bit if this is 100% FALSE!!!!! Here are the numbers as to why......

              Preflop, the opp has to call 60 into a pot that will be 275 (16%). When we then go to pokerstove to see how much equity is in the hand, using a top 10% hand for Joy (std open-raiser) and even if the others are playing wider hands than they should (top 30%), I only get 14.2% hand equity.
              Since the pot equity (16%) is higher than the hand equity (14.2%), this is clearly a FOLD.

              Now for the turn....
              The opp has a small flush and with 4 players in the hand, there is almost no way for the opp to have the best hand right now. This leaves the opp 2 outs and since there is only one stree to go, they have 4% hand equity due to this.
              To call the first raise is 270 chips into a pto of 1815 (14.9%). The pot equity here is much higher than the hand equity, so this is definitely a FOLD.
              Calling the 2nd shove is an even worse play. Knowing that 2 players have shoved, there is no way that the 8 is the highest flush. To call here is 965 into a pot that will be 4015 (24.0%). The pot equity here is SIX TIMES the hand equity... which makes the play an INSTANT FOLD.
              From these numbers, the opp expects to lose 10.9% of their chips for the first bet and an additional 20% of their chips calling the second bet!

              The opp here NEVER, not even once in the hand had the correct pot odds to call ANY bet!

              John (JWK24)
              Super-Moderator



              6 Time Bracelet Winner


              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
                hi joy preflop the opp was spot on in his/her call as the other opps give your villain pot odds.

                Same on the turn,the opp was never going to fold for the size of the bet he /she had left to put in,when all ready they had commited and with a made hand.
                Originally posted by JWK24 View Post
                Hi holdemace!

                EVERY single bit if this is 100% FALSE!!!!! Here are the numbers as to why......

                Preflop, the opp has to call 60 into a pot that will be 275 (16%). When we then go to pokerstove to see how much equity is in the hand, using a top 10% hand for Joy (std open-raiser) and even if the others are playing wider hands than they should (top 30%), I only get 14.2% hand equity.
                Since the pot equity (16%) is higher than the hand equity (14.2%), this is clearly a FOLD.

                Now for the turn....
                The opp has a small flush and with 4 players in the hand, there is almost no way for the opp to have the best hand right now. This leaves the opp 2 outs and since there is only one stree to go, they have 4% hand equity due to this.
                To call the first raise is 270 chips into a pto of 1815 (14.9%). The pot equity here is much higher than the hand equity, so this is definitely a FOLD.
                Calling the 2nd shove is an even worse play. Knowing that 2 players have shoved, there is no way that the 8 is the highest flush. To call here is 965 into a pot that will be 4015 (24.0%). The pot equity here is SIX TIMES the hand equity... which makes the play an INSTANT FOLD.
                From these numbers, the opp expects to lose 10.9% of their chips for the first bet and an additional 20% of their chips calling the second bet!

                The opp here NEVER, not even once in the hand had the correct pot odds to call ANY bet!

                John (JWK24)

                I was hoping you would jump in here JW as I didn't want to have to be the first to respond to this drivel.

                Holdem,until you can learn the most basic of concepts would you PLEASE be a student instead of trying to advise people?

                You're 1000% WRONG in your analysis here. The villain NEVER has proper odds to make any of the plays they make in this hand.

                Did you even bother to account for hand equity before you posted your response? I'll bet anything you didn't,because if you had then you never could have arrived at the conclusions that you did. And we can make the ranges of the other 3 players even wider than what JWK did in his response and the villain still wouldn't have the proper odds to play this hand.

                And beyond the equity angle you're saying that it's a proper play to call in a -EV spot with a trash hand like 83o in a spot where we will be OUT OF POSITION for the remainder of the hand?

                Simply amazeballs.

                And the call on the turn? LOL,what can the villain possibly be ahead of here? There are only 2 diamonds in the deck that are lower than his 8 that aren't accounted for---the 2 and the 4. And if joy has the 4 then that's even worse for the villain because instead of drawing to a 2 outer,which he's doing if she has any over diamond,he's drawing to only the 9d.

                And you LIKE his call? Her hand is 1000% naked here,villain is AT BEST on a 2 outer and you LIKE the call?

                Drawing to a 2 outer,at best,is a "made hand" in your world,huh? Because for the villain to believe his hand is "made" he has to believe that joy has either NO diamond or the 2 of diamonds.

                Face palm smiley needed.

                My gast is completely flabbered.

                When joy sees this "analysis" for your sake I hope you're wearing a cup,you're gonna need it.

                Comment


                • #9
                  hi mox and JW, ty for your pokerstove and equity lesson, however i am not trying to give an analysis here just an opinion,because like yourselfs if i was going to do a proper analysis, yes i probably to would get out the old pokerstove.

                  However, your text book answers are only an answer that would be the optimal play and the correct play, without the consideration for the type of player whom would call 83os on the BB with 3-1 on the money gamble as such,may not be precise maths but I look from the opps view how he would see this hand maybe, so to him 83os was the absolute correct call, He invested into the pot,could not be knocked out,and the flat calll by joy he would see this as a weak play and a weak hand maybe.

                  ONLY an assuption, and yes maybe a quick answer on my part but i try to think like the opp had thought, there fore giving my quick answer, not to analise but some insight from the opposite perspective meaning him.

                  Think about it, an opp calling 83o out of posistion is how you say ,spewing chips all over the place,
                  obviously, working out the maths from a gambling perspective as a 3-1 long shot.

                  And JOker yes i prefer to wack in a big bet rather than a 3x, its just not enough to freeze out the lesser players.

                  When we have analysis we are shown the text book way ,and yes have great analysis from you guys, but optimal is only for optimal players, thinking how a loose player may of thought will save a lot of chips when approached by this sort of play and player.

                  So when people get beat by those 83s etc, think of the reason why! ask your self knowingly that this opp is bad, through observation ,and on the BB, would he fold to 3x, the answer is no with his/her way of thinking.

                  So play as to be adjusted accordingly, text book will not work against these players.

                  Too any one else who may be reading this, JW is absolute correct in the fold preflop, however to him/her they would see this as good play and again be illusioned that the not even gapped cards are good cards to play.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    When joy sees this "analysis" for your sake I hope you're wearing a cup,you're gonna need it.

                    Read more: 2 outer on the River - PokerSchoolOnline Forum http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...#ixzz21kiyBK9F

                    I should hope not as joy did not even ask for analysis,its in the bad beats section not analysis

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
                      hi mox and JW, ty for your pokerstove and equity lesson, however i am not trying to give an analysis here just an opinion,because like yourselfs if i was going to do a proper analysis, yes i probably to would get out the old pokerstove.

                      However, your text book answers are only an answer that would be the optimal play and the correct play, without the consideration for the type of player whom would call 83os on the BB with 3-1 on the money gamble as such,may not be precise maths but I look from the opps view how he would see this hand maybe, so to him 83os was the absolute correct call, He invested into the pot,could not be knocked out,and the flat calll by joy he would see this as a weak play and a weak hand maybe.

                      ONLY an assuption, and yes maybe a quick answer on my part but i try to think like the opp had thought, there fore giving my quick answer, not to analise but some insight from the opposite perspective meaning him.

                      Think about it, an opp calling 83o out of posistion is how you say ,spewing chips all over the place,
                      obviously, working out the maths from a gambling perspective as a 3-1 long shot.

                      And JOker yes i prefer to wack in a big bet rather than a 3x, its just not enough to freeze out the lesser players.

                      When we have analysis we are shown the text book way ,and yes have great analysis from you guys, but optimal is only for optimal players, thinking how a loose player may of thought will save a lot of chips when approached by this sort of play and player.

                      So when people get beat by those 83s etc, think of the reason why! ask your self knowingly that this opp is bad, through observation ,and on the BB, would he fold to 3x, the answer is no with his/her way of thinking.

                      So play as to be adjusted accordingly, text book will not work against these players.

                      Too any one else who may be reading this, JW is absolute correct in the fold preflop, however to him/her they would see this as good play and again be illusioned that the not even gapped cards are good cards to play.

                      You said,and I QUOTE,..."hi joy preflop the opp was spot on in his/her call as the other opps give your villain pot odds."

                      Those are YOUR words holdem and in saying that you are stating,AS FACT,NOT OPINION,that the villain's call was mathematically correct.

                      And you are 1000% WRONG.

                      Would you for once own your words in here instead of coming back with this "well you misunderstood my words or my intent" deflection garbage,please?

                      And the opp is thinking like you apparently want to think in your SLAG thread---like a spewtard. So you aren't "trying to think like the opp"---you're already there.

                      And you can try to knock our "textbook" answers as much as you care to and tell everyone that text book will not work against these players and I'll say that this is results oriented idiocy using ONE hand as an example when the real truth of the matter is that this muppet put his chips in the middle on a 2 outer at best and if you think that "text book" won't work against a player that can be maneuvered into such a position then you're a muppet as well.

                      And optimal is most definitely NOT only for optimal players. Man what kind of convoluted thinking do you come up with to make these statements? The FIRST thing I look for when I'm at a table is players that are capable of making brain dead plays like the opp did here. They're whom I want to be in as many hands with as possible because most of the time I'm going to use them like my own personal chip ATM and the only way they're likely to get MY chips is to be outrageously lucky,like the villain was here.

                      You really don't get that,do you? That better players don't fear or even fret players like the opp here,they CRAVE them?

                      The only thing we fear or fret is that poker rarely gets us into 100% spots where we can't lose and blind luck can beat us. But that's luck's doing---NOT the fish's.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I fold flop because I am a ninja and I always know when I'm going to get sucked out on. If i'm really on my game I might even fold it pre.

                        Pretty sure the guy who raised turn folded 4d because he was also a ninja, hope this helps.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          it was just a flash through the forum mox,no advice given! just a quick opinion that i looked at again.

                          i would prob call preflop for the hell of it but im folding the flop unless i house would all ready have the decission made preflop, i plan my cards i know exactly what im going to do with them,


                          and acekingblows lol

                          i all ready agreed with you moxie but like said before on here to many fish on a table is hard work mox so my thinking is different than when i know im up against proper players.

                          and people say optimal play works at low levels against fish, yes i agree but also people state that optimal play like this will crumble at the bigger levels so are we learning poker or are we learning to just make up the numbers of players at the micros?

                          At least i know now throughout this why i loose at the upper levels because i do completely opposite, i play at micros and sit at bigger stakes thats the wrong way around.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by holdemace486 View Post
                            it was just a flash through the forum mox,no advice given! just a quick opinion that i looked at again.

                            i would prob call preflop for the hell of it but im folding the flop unless i house would all ready have the decission made preflop, i plan my cards i know exactly what im going to do with them,


                            and acekingblows lol

                            i all ready agreed with you moxie but like said before on here to many fish on a table is hard work mox so my thinking is different than when i know im up against proper players.

                            and people say optimal play works at low levels against fish, yes i agree but also people state that optimal play like this will crumble at the bigger levels so are we learning poker or are we learning to just make up the numbers of players at the micros?

                            At least i know now throughout this why i loose at the upper levels because i do completely opposite, i play at micros and sit at bigger stakes thats the wrong way around.

                            We're not on the advice issue,quit changing the subject.

                            You said,and again I quote since YOU seem to have trouble grasping YOUR words,..."...however I am not trying to give an analysis here just an opinion...".

                            Well an opinion is NOT what you gave in your first post in this thread. You stated that the villain was "spot on" in their call pre-flop as they had pot odds to do so. That is a statement of fact (as incorrect as it may be...),not opinion. You said they were right and the math backed you on this statement. You were WRONG but you stated it as fact,nonetheless.

                            I made NO MENTION in my rejoinder to your response to me as to whether joy was looking for advice or not and yet you broach that subject again. Stick to the subject at hand---whether or not you rendered an opinion or a statement of fact in your OP.

                            As for you saying that you would probably call just for the Hell of it and then fold the flop,this is after you previously stated that the villain was correct to call joy's ship on the turn.

                            holdem with all the backtracking,flip-flopping and recalibrating of your positions that you do I have to ask...are you Mitt Romney?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              thank you for the comments mtn and sorry if you have had infractions,

                              ANd i would only teach basic abc poker in a home game to begginers as i asked for.PEople with low rankings who i could certainly try and help.

                              AND you are missing one important point to poker and i strangely find myself explaining.

                              Every now and again it is worth a slight gamble, thats the aim of the game,we gamble preflop and post etc.

                              We hope our hand is good its always a gamble unless the absolute nuts as you know.

                              IF you have read this post and yes the s,l,a,g post ,you will in fact of read that i state TAG poker what the forum teaches is the best strategy and most consistent winning formula. I know that but still want to look into other plays and styles.

                              AS i did with LAG,done TAG ,done nit,and unless anyone knows any other styles except the one left im trying to find out about , then i have acomplished my goals for this year and learnt an hell of a lot.

                              PLease do not infract mtn for this outburst,tilt happens in all forms of life.

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