The way how I currently play, shoving AJ+, 88+ is for the most part taking flips.  For a tournament like PokerSchool Open league you would need to take 3 flips to get into the top 6.25%.  So, the probability that this happens is (1/2)^3 = 0.125 or 12.5% of the time.  Every 8 turns you are flipping into 40+ tourney points.

Well this is all theoretical,  how have I been doing? I played 24 tourneys and made it into the money 5 times or about 20% of the time.  I made it into the top 6.25% twice.  I could have made it thrice but I didn't stop playing when I made the chips for 6.25% so I busted out early.  So, yes roughly 1 in 8 times to make the 6.25%.

After reaching into the money, flips aren't going to work.  You will need to play decent poker after that.