FLOP stats

Another blog after a while. This time about FLOP stats.  I believe everyone who plays poker should know some basic stats to be able to do better decision when betting. If you play against maniac that never folds and your only chance is to catch something, the only way how to figure out whether bet, call or fold is to know the stats. The stats are when we see the FLOP, full ring and only one villain see the flop with us.

I am not saying I am 100% right and I am not saying you should play like thi Those are only numbers I think it is good to know, that is all.


Pair (99 for example, I am not including AA or KK because they are easy to play).


The flop did not bring another 9 so we do not have a set.  If the flop brought three lower cards (6c,3s,2s) the chance is still the same against unknown, we have around 70% to win. It is probably better to remember we can win in 2 from 3 cases.


If the flop brought three higher cards (A, J, T) for example, we have only 55% chance, so much lower.


The most common flop we see especially with 9 is a flop like 3,6,J, so two lower cards, one higher. The chance for us to win is still around 70%.


If someone opens from early position we are sure he has AA or KK, the only chance for us to win is to hit a set and the flop is blank, no other 9, the chance we can still hit a set is very small, only 7% (two outs)!

 

We have suited connectors (JhTh).


The flop is completely blank. Something like 3s,6d,Ac. The chance for us to win at this point against one unknown opponent is only around 35%. It is slightly different if instead of A would be 3 for example but in general we can win only 1/3.


We hit flush draw. Something like  3h,6h,As.  If we think he missed the flop also, we have 60% chance to win against unknown. 

If he hit something and we need to catch a flush, we have around 35% to catch flush in Turn or River. So in one from three cases we complete the color. This is important to remember when you are betting. Is it worth trying to catch the flush?


Flop 3h,6s,Ac. We need another two cards to catch flush. The chances are very small, only 4%. If this is the only chance to win, I would rather fold.


Flop 8d,9s,3c. We have straight draw. The chance to hit the straight is around 31% so we can still count 1/3. The chance for us to win against unknown in general is around 54%. It is almost the same number if there is A on the flop unless you are sure he has ACE.


When you hit a flush draw and a straight draw, the chance for you to win in general is around 70%.

 

Two cards, like AT.


We missed the flop, all cards are lower than ours. 2,7,8.  We have around 50% to win if we know nothing about villain.  We also have around 50% to catch a pair on turn or river. And we have around 40% we will not catch anything. The number that you can win in general is falling down when you don’t have ACE but K. For example if you have K9 and the flop is the same,  the chance for you to win is around 44%

 


Higher and lower card (A4)


The flop is J,6,9. The chance for you to win is around 40%. To get a pair is the same as before, around 50%.

 

Two lower cards (74)


The flop is A,Q,9. Even to play these sounds quite ridiculous, the chance for you to win is extremely low, around 15%.

This just the basic, in next article I will aim on hand range, it is always better to think about the range our opponent plays.

if you by any chance read the whole articel feel free to ask any questions or leave a comment. Thank you and good luck!