Followers of my 2013 goals thread will have tired of me moaning about running bad. I know that I have. PPP5 Considers the impact of a touch of bad variance.

 

 

Exhibit a) First hand of October’s big bang.

That’s a touch annoying. However, far better to reflect beyond simply , and realise how great it is when villains get it all in on turn looking for 4-6 outs. This isn’t the only hand like this recently, but I have been able to consistently think long-term this is great! These villains may seem to be getting there more at the moment, but over time it will even out and be very good for me.

Exhibit b) The now infamous runbad raptor (or EV dragon depending on when you met him)

I tired of stealing other people’s comedy downswing/runbad graphs and decided I should offer something back. Those are my cash results July-September. The green line is actual profit, the orange line is All In-EV, ie what I would expect to make based on % when getting all in. I do not run well! Working past this is trickier I think. It is far too easy to focus on the fact that All-In EV says I should be in the black. But we need to look past this and consider what else needs addressing. This graph tells me I have been unlucky, but also suggests I have some work to do on my cash game regardless (I know).

Exhibit c) 6max cash session from mid week. 200 hands into session and I am down 3 buy ins, what now? 785 hands I am down 4 buy ins and orange line is worse, what now?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/g1pwe4rlhhlcspn/6m%20cash%20October%20swing.jpg

If prone to tilt or simply letting how things are going affect your game then you should not be continuing. I prefer to let the early setbacks focus me, I know after I drop a few buy ins I need to play perfectly to stand a chance of finishing with anything remotely positive to take from a session I tried to do this and reclaimed over 3 buy ins and had an orange line swing from -$118 to +$3.
Running into coolers is not as fun as this guy seems to think. It is really important to look past it, or work on your reaction to them. Bounce-back-ability is an underestimated critical skill in poker.


 

Final things:
I may seem to overestimate the importance of All-In EV in this post, it is not that important, just tells you whether you have been un/lucky. Poker is 100% skill, 50% luck after all [White magic quote]. I promise to stop moaning as I am assuming that it cant get much worse than a) and b) … right? Title of post inspired by Geo’s post  Know that when you hit a bad variance there are always others who are sharing the misery.