As it turned out, my 1816.60 was not enough to bank $30 last month, and a last ditch effort to haul myself up there again came up short, as I finished mid-field, so I settled for $15 in November.

The whole situation got me thinking about how playing League tourneys -- specifically, those at the end of the month -- affect equity in the League prize pool. I posed the question of whether I should play, and decided I wanted some more concrete answers. So I decided to set up a few simulations based on both my previous performance data, and approximate "target" scores at which the prize steps occur. The calculations were very approximate, but the findings were quite interesting...

I found that playing as opposed to not playing was adding about $4 to my league equity, so it was definitely worth playing. The general findings were not too surprising: play if you're just below a threshold, don't if you're just above one. This was assuming that the next tournament would be your last one.

More interesting were the equities that I calculated when starting from 1500 and playing a specified number of tourneys. I have been finding myself playing about 40 tourneys a month in my first three months here, and my model gives me an equity of about $9 when playing this number. However, extrapolating to 60 tourneys, I was returned an equity of $15, and 80 tourneys yielded $18.

The message here is clear: play more tournaments!!! This is certainly my plan for December. And having recorded two cashes out of my first two tourneys of the month, I'm optimistic!